China Flanker Thread III (land based, exclude J-15)

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
People have been throwing in drones and 5th gens to the conversation. There are dedicated production of those lines already. Those are running separate to considerations for upgrades of existing aircraft.

China is trying to make itself into more of a consumer economy. It can print money and manufacturer 99.9% of the common consumer goods that the people working and building conjectured BG upgrades would be consuming. All it needs to do is ensure there is adequate flows into the economy to balance the cost... which it can. This upgrade program is not an opportunity cost of production line, brainpower or top tier talent. Those are still directed at those other projects. China has an absolute abundance of talent even with braindrain. There is an abundance of underemployed talented people.

The economic question of how to support the program is honestly null. Those people can be previously underemployed or shifted such that underemployed people down the pole get a boost. Those people aren't being paid fortunes. They're just buying Chinese products with the CPC printed RMB. They're consuming mostly Chinese food and any additional imports they do consume is more than balanced by growing Chinese trade surplus.

It's not a question of time or money when those J-11Bs with 15+ years of airframe life are already made and sitting there.

It's only a question of internal accommodation and the complexity and cost of turning available space and constraints into objectives achieved (here defined as radar and/or datalinking upgrade and PL-15/16 compatibility).

Another factor to consider, if they have gone to the trouble of giving these airframes WS-10x engines, this is a considerably greater financial cost and opportunity cost when we know more than one UADF is using the WS-10 series. A pair of WS-10s is quite a generous commitment if we're keeping BG to slugging PL-12As for some "homeland" second tier defense role. Supposedly these >100 fighters wouldn't even participate in any potential war (since they can't do much if they're 4th maybe "4.2" gen with PL-12A). Then why go to any trouble upgrading them at all? If we don't have "overproduction" of WS-10, just scrap the B models already since they're not going to be frontline facing and if they get used in war, it signals PLAAF frontline losing bad enough to need them.

Alternatively, why not just stretch more and get them up to 4.5 gen with some AESA upgrade and PL-15/16 at least. You've given them a pair of new engines. The platform does justice to these missiles and is arguably one of two in the world that can be considered air superiority behemoths (F-15 being the other platform). We know it's possible to convert a tiny JF-17 block 1/2 to block 3 (AESA and PL-15) with available space and similarly constrained plumbing given the modernity of relative upgrades.
 

Blitzo

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
I agree. Some people who are laughing at this may be proven wrong. We didn't see the potential for J-10 centre pylons supporting A2As until recently. Yes that was a display model with those centre pylons but that's pretty suggesting the real J-10 could potentially support more A2As as we assumed. Just because we haven't yet seen J-11BG with PL-15 could point more towards attempts at secrecy than it does at non-compatibility. J-11BG with PL-15 capability is an easily overlooked and underestimated strength. With those numbers it's arguably a greater threat than having an extra few squadrons of 5th gens when talking about peer to peer.

They are forgetting that the Flanker platform has one serious advantage. It gives tremendous kinematic justice to a better missile. It is an absent minded mistake to not upgrade J-11B -> J-11BG with PL-15/6 and PL-17 compatibility. Yes it's a cost calculation but we know B -> BG received engine and avionics upgrades. One thing discussed on the Chinese PLA watching side is the radar upgrade. If they are upgrading radar why would you not do a PL-15/16 compatibility upgrade.

Sometimes the academic guys here are too narrow minded and rigid on certain things so they will not entertain ideas that the strategists in PLA might genuinely have considered ie if J-11BG as an upgrade package for a fighter platform with up to 20 years of airframe life left is performed, what should be included in said upgrade? The conclusion is very obviously going to be PL-15/16 and maybe even PL-17 compatibility. PL-17 is questionable but would be quite a nice to have.

As you said, even JF-17 block 3 was upgraded to PL-15 compatibility. Therefore it isn't hard to that expensive to do. JF-17 block 2 to 3 leap isn't as time significant as J-11B to J-11BG leap. It's also giving no kinematic advantage to the PL-15 missile unlike the Flanker which will give it significantly more altitude potential and speed compared to a puny JF-17.

The diminishing returns for investment when doing this for block 3 is a low threshold. The payoff for doing the same (similar cost) to the J-11BG is so much greater and arguably more important/useful.

If suppose J-11BG is indeed PL-15/16 compatible with modern datalinking included, it does become a J-16-lite because it would be the only other PLAAF flanker that can carry PL-15. Forget the homeland defense idea. These are frontline fighters. You've picked up 200 J-16 lites to supplement your force. No one here thinks PLAAF is a big enough force to comfortably face off against US and Japan. PLAAF needs all the 4.5 gen fighters it can muster.

The problem is that you are thinking about things in a manner which is "optimal" in terms of "maximizing capability for each given platform".

The PLA has shown a willingness to keep obsolescent capabilities in service past its due date (see late model J-7 retirements) for low end missions for the sake of cost mitigation.
If we combine that with the prior rumours that J-11BG is said to be a much less ambitious upgrade than J-16/J-10C level, and combine that with how we haven't seen any J-11BG carry PL-15 yet despite being in service for multiple years now, then we are obliged to entertain the possibility that J-11BG does not have the capability to carry/accommodate PL-15/16.


Let me be crystal clear in what I am saying:
A) It is possible J-11BG is able to accommodate PL-15/16 but we just happen to have yet to see it
B) It is possible J-11BG is not able to accommodate PL-15/16, and that is the reason we have yet to see it and will not see it

Both A) and B) are equally viable at this moment in time, and there is no argument you can make which allows us to treat option B) as somehow implausible or invalid, so just stop trying.


Therefore, whenever we talk about J-11BG, we are obliged to consider the possibility that it may not be able to accommodate PL-15/16, as much as it may be possible to accommodate it.
 
Top