China demographics thread.

[manqiangrexue]

There are many second and third order effects you would need to consider, as the 'drop out' rate from such a society might be higher than planned for and the effects more disastrous. This is like an experiment where you shove every kid into a boarding school and see how things go;

Not necessarily. Historically speaking, Spartan society had far far less delinquents than most modern societies today because the Agoge taught them discipline, loyalty to the state and pride in those values. That is drilled into the Spartan mindset that they would being unspeakable dishonor to themselves if they failed the system. The educational system that would be put into place would be far stricter and more powerful than any boarding school but more closely resemble the Agoge in terms of mental discipline but more focused on mental knowledge than physical/combat training.

The wildcard in this experiment is that ancient society was far less connected. With social media and the internet, these kids will see that kids in other countries are raised by parents and often feel the warmth of familial bonds and love. They may grow to envy that, however, early mental education should ingrain into them that those are primitive societies, that China's system is above them and as Chinese kids raised in this system, they will grow to be better and stronger than those kids raised in traditional families. Create a wall of arrogance that would prevent them from admiring the kids in other countries raised in traditional families.

You're essentially arguing that love of family is what stops people from delinquency but 1. can it not be replaced by instilled values of honor and loyalty to the state? and 2. familial love often backfires as delinquents often can result from situations of coddling and entitlement so that they feel no responsibility to anyone else but feel that they are owed everything provided to them by family, friends and society.

you might need a specialised re-education / deradicalisation program to deal with the drop outs.

Of course there will definitely be institutions that deal with delinquents, much like mental institutions and prisons of today.

 

[Eventine]

The biggest problem will be AI replacing jobs faster than society can adapt to it. Like good percentage of blue and white collar jobs replaced by automation and AI. if the happens the question is, what is the point of having high birth-rates and larger families?

AI as it exists today is productivity augmentation, not replacement. It simply pushes humans into jobs that revolve around managing AI, much like the invention of factory automation led to the rise of white collar jobs in finance, business management, and software. We have no strong evidence as of yet that AI will be able to truly replace humans (AGI), or that we would be able to control AGI, if it was achieved (ie it might lead to an extinction event).

The question is whether you'd be willing to bet on the most optimistic scenario happening with AI (we achieve AGI and we maintain control of AGI) or not. If I were a leader, I'd hedge my bet. Plus, even if the most optimistic scenario happens with AI, that doesn't mean humanity should therefore stop having children. If anything, it'd be make reforming society away from capitalism all the more urgent, because the idea of the 0.001% using AGI as their instrument of oppression towards the rest of humanity is terrifying.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Culture changes, maybe today having 4 kids is not fashionable but maybe in 10 years people are more willing to have 4 or even 5 kids, maybe this current worry about demographics is the beginning of a cultural reversal towards larger families, less use birth controls and home friendly parents.

The biggest problem will be AI replacing jobs faster than society can adapt to it. Like good percentage of blue and white collar jobs replaced by automation and AI. if the happens the question is, what is the point of having high birth-rates and larger families?

One example of reproductive culture changing quickly: LGBT.

As recently as 2008, the west was still extremely repressive towards LGBT and mere tolerance of their existence was considered exceptionally enlightened.

Obama, for example, repeatedly stated his opposition to gay marriage from 2004-2008

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Don't ask don't tell existed until 2011.

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Attitudes towards LGBT took a 180 turn within less than 10 years in the west.

I don't see why a similar cultural shift towards pro natalism cannot occur in China.

 

[dirtyid]

You

No government is going to be willing or able to implement social engineering sufficient to "get enough women to have 4 kids to cancel out the women who have no kids." Some of the social engineering "solutions" proposed in this thread are essentially rape

Yes it's totally going to be marketed like a state "rape" program.

Here's how it could likely work. State starts engineering biasing birth to reverse sex ratio to 55-60% - 45-40%. Former is basically what one child policy artificially did, so we know possible to bias other way. 60-40 very high (i.e. higher than post war female:male ratios, but it's not on paper impossible).

More female:male ratio = bring down replacement TFR, i.e. @55% replacement TFR is 1.9, @60% its 1.75.

We know pro fertility policy from resource rich per capita countries can probably bring TFR up to 1.5/1.7

Then the numbers work out to this, columns are female cohorts that can be convinced to surrogate as % of female population. Values are how many additional rape babies state surrogacies needed, i.e. additional TFR of cohort.

Under optimistic but feasible scenario i.e. PRC becomes resource rich enough to pull off 1.7 TFR (green), and shift sex ratio to 55/58% female in next few decades, to sustain population to replacement TFR at that sex ratio (1.8-1.9) = need to incentive structures to convince ~30-35% to surrogate 1 extra baby then they would otherwise have. State can convince a lot of young women, especially fresh into uni to do a janurary - september surrogacy in first/second year, or a gap surrogacy year. Tag on free tuition, fancy private boarding, all of the amenities for entire tertiary, priority coop placement etc, first class travel vouchers for after. Whatever. Recruit at phase in most fertile (and delivery safest) and bribe when most needed at phase in life least disruptive. This isn't even teenage pregnacy bad. It's just incentivizing minority % of female population to do what 99% of women have done throughout 100% of human history... except with perks and no long term obligations which state will assume.

red base TFR 1.1
yellow base TFR 1.3
blue base TFR 1.5
green base TFR 1.7

 

[CMP]

You



Yes it's totally going to be marketed like a state "rape" program.

Here's how it could likely work. State starts engineering biasing birth to reverse sex ratio to 55-60% - 45-40%. Former is basically what one child policy artificially did, so we know possible to bias other way. 60-40 very high (i.e. higher than post war female:male ratios, but it's not on paper impossible).

More female:male ratio = bring down replacement TFR, i.e. @55% replacement TFR is 1.9, @60% its 1.75.

We know pro fertility policy from resource rich per capita countries can probably bring TFR up to 1.5/1.7

Then the numbers work out to this, columns are female cohorts that can be convinced to surrogate as % of female population. Values are how many additional rape babies state surrogacies needed, i.e. additional TFR of cohort.

Under optimistic but feasible scenario i.e. PRC becomes resource rich enough to pull off 1.7 TFR (green), and shift sex ratio to 55/58% female in next few decades, to sustain population to replacement TFR at that sex ratio (1.8-1.9) = need to incentive structures to convince ~30-35% to surrogate 1 extra baby then they would otherwise have. State can convince a lot of young women, especially fresh into uni to do a janurary - september surrogacy in first/second year, or a gap surrogacy year. Tag on free tuition, fancy private boarding, all of the amenities for entire tertiary, priority coop placement etc, first class travel vouchers for after. Whatever. Recruit at phase in most fertile (and delivery safest) and bribe when most needed at phase in life least disruptive. This isn't even teenage pregnacy bad. It's just incentivizing minority % of female population to do what 99% of women have done throughout 100% of human history... except with perks and no long term obligations which state will assume.

red base TFR 1.1
yellow base TFR 1.3
blue base TFR 1.5
green base TFR 1.7

View attachment 155856

Throw in extra points on the gaokao and you'll see tons of volunteers.

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

You all need to go check if you are on the Autism spectrum or not. This thread is going to be locked given how off the rails it went.