Chavez vows to retake Falklands: call the men in white coats?

From The Sunday Times September 2, 2007 Chavez vows revenge for Falklands warMartin Arostegui, Santa Cruz IN a new outburst of antiwestern sabre-rattling, President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has threatened Britain with "revenge" for the Falklands war of 1982. The belligerent Latin American leftist warned last week that his recent build-up of sophisticated Russian and Iranian weapons would be used to destroy the British fleet if it attempted to return to the South Atlantic.
Speaking on his weekly television show Alo Presidente (Hello, Mr President), Chavez denounced what he described as Britain's "illegal occupation" of the Falklands and repeated his call for a regional military alliance against Britain and the United States.
"If we had been united in the last war, we could have stopped the old empire," Chavez said, as he gesticulated to maps showing how Venezuelan aircraft and submarines would intercept British warships. "Today we could sink the British fleet."
Chavez has often expressed support for Argentina's claim to the Falklands, but his latest broadside was notable for both its antiBritish vitriol and its unprecedented threats. He declared that British history was "stained with the blood of South America's indigenous people" and demanded revenge for the "cowardly" sinking of the General Belgrano, the Argentine cruiser.
Western diplomats have long grown used to harangues from Chavez, who announced this weekend that he would negotiate with guerrillas holding dozens of hostages in Colombia, including three US contractors and Ingrid Betancourt, a French-Colombian abducted as she campaigned for president in 2002. But US and British officials have recently become more concerned by his willingness to lavish billions of dollars from Venezuela's soaring oil income on military capabilities.
On his TV programme, Chavez introduced a group of 30 Venezuelan pilots who were trained in Russia to fly a squadron of 24 Sukhoi SU-30 multi-role fighters. The aircraft were part of a $3 billion armaments deal with Moscow.
Chavez has also bought 100,000 AK-47 assault rifles and negotiated to set up a Kalashnikov factory in Venezuela. He has reportedly ordered nine Russian diesel submarines, including the cruise missile-carrying 677E Amur-class vessel.
The Venezuelan pilots told him they would soon be training with medium-range BrahMos missiles, a supersonic antiship cruise missile jointly developed by India and Russia.
US officials also fear that Chavez may be seeking nuclear technology from his contacts with Iran and North Korea. He is discussing a possible joint programme with Tehran to build an unmanned drone aircraft similar to the American Predator and has long been engaged in a regional attempt to promote military cooperation against the US.
So far most of his neighbours have shied away from confrontation with Washington, but Chavez is continuing to press for the creation of a "single South American army".
His outspoken attacks on Britain and his support for Buenos Aires have gone down well in Argentina, where President Nestor Kirchner's wife, Cristina, is the favourite to succeed her husband in elections next month.
While there is no indication that either of the Kirchners wants to precipitate a new crisis over the Falklands, military analysts say Venezuela's lengthening military reach might seriously impede any British attempt to dispatch a new task force.

Yes because as we all know, the Flankers he bought can fly sorties all the way to the Falklands from Venezuela....

Or to put it another way he wants to drag the whole of South America down with him into a war that has nothing to do with him or his country and would plunge Argentina back into financial chaos. Nurse! The screens please!:nono::roll::nana:

Chavez is just grand-staging. There's no credible threat from Venezuela - he's just off on one of his rants.

Nevertheless Chavez is a very clever populist playing effectively with popular sentiments of the entire argentinean people.

´El supremo´ is aware of the fact that he needs backing in the region and if this takes an hour boasting about how Venezuela would have fought defending Argentina's honour he is simply happy to oblige. Of course Venezuela is no military threat to the UK but on the long run Chavez should not be underestimated since he is able to employ significant resources (oil and gas revenues) and he can draw on a reasonable population base (27.5 million).

Whatever the rhetorical force of all this, if the Venezuealan Goverment were to considerably increase (on paper at least) its military capabilies, then even empty rhetoric can still have a diploatic effect all out of proportion to the means actually used. Countries may not pay attention to such rhetoric by itself, but they do listen when the rhetorician is armed to the teeth, even if they doubt that he will do anything with those arms. It can create real diplomatic uncertainty and subsequent strategic questions or issues.

Is Chavez smokin' all the weed they grow in Venzuela?? He's otta his mind..Just dulisions from a petty dictator.

If I were Gordon Brown I would dispatch Invincible and Ark Royal with escorts on a training exercise in the Carribean. Or perhaps on a "friendship visit" to Trinidad and Tobago. The USN can have a couple of carriers participate in these multinational exercises too. :nono:

I don't take a word Chavez says seriously at all. Almost everything he says is intended for domestic consumption, or for posturing himself as the "leader of South America". He's sort of copying Kruschaev's "we will bury the West" propaganda brinksmanship. The best thing to do about that is to ignore him. Or to expose his bluffing. Which is why the UK might want to have the Royal Navy undertake a Carribean cruise. But of course, Chavez is not their problem, so they're probably better off ignoring him.

I assume you mean Illustrious instead of Invincible? Otherwise I agree with you. A caribbean cruise would go down quite well with the carriers' crews right now.

Finn McCool said:

If I were Gordon Brown I would dispatch Invincible and Ark Royal with escorts on a training exercise in the Carribean. Or perhaps on a "friendship visit" to Trinidad and Tobago. The USN can have a couple of carriers participate in these multinational exercises too. :nono:

I don't take a word Chavez says seriously at all. Almost everything he says is intended for domestic consumption, or for posturing himself as the "leader of South America". He's sort of copying Kruschaev's "we will bury the West" propaganda brinksmanship. The best thing to do about that is to ignore him. Or to expose his bluffing. Which is why the UK might want to have the Royal Navy undertake a Carribean cruise. But of course, Chavez is not their problem, so they're probably better off ignoring him.

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i was thinking more of a joint RAF and RN exercise with chilie with typhoons and carriers and an SSN for good measure

Obi Wan Russell said:

I assume you mean Illustrious instead of Invincible? Otherwise I agree with you. A caribbean cruise would go down quite well with the carriers' crews right now.

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I'm thinking a joint US UK carrier task force would more than suffice. Two UK carriers and their escorts and one Nimitz and its escorts.

Such an exercise would call a belligerent's bluff quite adequately and make a braggard look like a bafoon. If the braggard did nothing, the bluff would be called. If the braggard deigned to come out to play, all those new toys would be eliminated.

But, that's just how I would handle such an out and out threat.

In addition, if the UK stationed Typhoons on Sierra Leone, Ascension Island and Port Stanley, their 900m range could provide cover for the task force moving south

I read this story this morning and also posted it on Defence Talk. I had thought that Chavez might try and raise the Falklands issue to boost his standing in the region. He first brought it up a few months ago when Blair criticised his policies. My reading of it was that Chavez was boasting about how his new toys could interdict an RN task force heading south or threaten the supply lines. Also if he is so concerned about South America's indigenous peoples, as he says in his programme, then perhaps he will make an example by handing Venezuela back to the Native Americans? Yep, thought not! :rofl:

The irony is that there is no appetite at all in Argentina for another attempt to reclaim the Falklands. Argentina's own military capability has shrunk dramatically since 1982, they no longer have a carrier or significant amphibious capability. The island's defence is also radically stronger than '82 when a single RM company had to face a much larger enemy that could land armoured vehicles on the islands. Now there is a batallion sized unit backed up with at least 4 RAF fighters of No.1435 Flight, and they are due to re-equip with Typhoons in the next year or so and will probably be the most powerful air defence unit in the region. Chavez could offer to buy Flankers for Argentina or send his own down, but he has portrayed himself as a leader who stands up to agression. Financing a military build up in a situation which has no direct implications for Venezuela would undermine his "moral authority." And if he did become embroiled in a "Falklands 2" scenario, it would probably give the U.S. a perfect opportunity to attempt to oust him, and like Kruschev, I think that he has more brains than his public actions suggest.