AUKUS News, Views, Analysis.

Z

zyklon

Junior Member
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siegecrossbow said:
Hence the gift that keeps on giving.
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Looks like more gifts from Australia are inbound! :cool:

Everyone's favorite
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, ideally for forward deployment in Papua New Guinea or maybe even the Philippines!

A radical suggestion would be to acquire rapidly six to 10 B-1B Lancer bombers from the US Air Force’s inventory. B-1Bs have been configured in recent years for anti-ship strike missions. Each is now able to carry 36 Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles (24 internally in bomb bays and 12 externally), which is a fearsome anti-surface capability.
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Ninth, a military alliance should be negotiated with Papua New Guinea to provide for the establishment of ADF bases in locations such as Manus, Rabaul and Lae to support the conduct of maritime surveillance, anti-surface, anti-submarine, and air superiority missions.
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For instance, a forward-deployed composite RAAF wing, consisting of F-35A Lightning fighters, B-1B Lancers armed with LRASM, F/A-18F Super Hornets armed with SM-6 missiles, and P-8 Poseidon maritime aircraft could operate from the Bismarck to the Celebes seas and beyond with the aim of denying access into our northern sea-air approaches.
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A similar alliance should be negotiated with The Philippines. This would extend our coverage north of the barrier into the South China Sea.
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Aside from the obvious challenges Australia will have to overcome to secure basing rights in Papua New Guinea, the author of this proposal seems largely unaware of just how much of a "pain in the ass" or just outright uneconomical it is going to be to keep second hand B-1B bombers reasonably serviceable.

However, except for those of you who are Australian taxpayers, who are the rest of us to complain if the Australian defence establishment and the elected officials above them insist on making poor choices?! :)

Lethe said:
Back in December 2023 I put forward my own prediction as to how all this is likely to unfold, and I don't see any reason to revise it at this stage:

Recent developments furthering this skeptical view include a recent Congressional Research Service
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that publicly floats the idea that, instead of transferring SSNs to Australia, maybe USN could just operate SSNs from Australia on Australia's behalf instead:

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Lethe said:
For what little it's worth, here's my prediction as to how this is going to unfold as we enter the 2030s:

(1) Australia's acquisition of two second-hand Virginia-class submarines is pushed back or cancelled owing to a combination of lack of enthusiasm in Washington to transfer them and our lack of readiness to receive and operate them.
(2) The AUKUS nuclear submarine program is ultimately thrown in the bin and a new conventional program is pursued with local shipbuilding.
(3) A limited number of Virginia-class submarines (say, four) are eventually acquired from the American production line at ruinous expense and maintained at low readiness, partly to make the Americans happy and partly just to say that we did it.
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Considering
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on March 4th, it appears that your first prediction, that Australia will not receive any Virginia class boats "anytime soon," is almost certain to come true.

The writing on the wall:
So if we can produce the attack submarines in sufficient number and sufficient speed, then great. But if we can't, that becomes a very difficult problem because we don't want our servicemen and women to be in a weaker position and more vulnerable, and, God forbid, worse because they are not in the right place in the right time.
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So my perspective, and what I have told the Australians and also the Brits, is, if confirmed, you know, or before, I think it should be the policy of the United States Government to do everything we can to make this work.
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And again, as we talked about in your office, Senator, this is getting back to restoring our defense industrial capacity so that we don't have to face these awful choices but rather can be in a position where we can produce not only for ourselves, but for our allies.
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Not sure if I'm overanalyzing or misreading Colby's testimony, but he seems to be implying that like the Australians, the British nuclear submarine program is also rather dependent on American industrial capacity.

The US isn't selling or leasing boats to the UK, so it makes you wonder if he's talking about the pace at which the US can manufacture key components like vertical launch systems for AUKUS boats, or something else.

Lethe said:
There is also the British government's own Infrastructure and Projects Authority which has
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the nation's ability to produce naval nuclear reactors to meet requirements (i.e. Dreadnought and SSN-AUKUS) as "unachievable" for three years running now (p. 15 & p. 43).
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From the sounds of it, while the RAN may or may not to ultimately receive any Virginia boats, there's still a chance the RAN will receive their AUKUS boats, just not necessarily on time or within budget if they're willing to let BAE "work out the kinks."

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At the rate we are going, the next gift from "esteemed" experts or even legislators from Australia might be a proposal for a nuclear deterrence by way of AUKUS SSBNs, especially should Donald Trump or JD Vance utter something worrisome to Australians in the coming months.

In all seriousness, if Australia wants B-1B bombers, perhaps as an "interim solution" before B-21 bombers are available for export, while simultaneously pursuing SSNs, what else would make for the next rung?!
 
lych470

lych470

Junior Member
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In short:​

Defence Minister Richard Marles has provided an update on the condition of the defence force personnel whose trucks rolled in Tregeagle, just outside Lismore.
Thirty-two soldiers in two vehicles were assisting the community in the aftermath of ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred when the incident happened.
Investigations continue into what led to one vehicle leaving the road and rolling several times into a paddock and also how a second tipped on its side.

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lych470

lych470

Junior Member
Registered Member
lych470 said:

In short:​

Defence Minister Richard Marles has provided an update on the condition of the defence force personnel whose trucks rolled in Tregeagle, just outside Lismore.
Thirty-two soldiers in two vehicles were assisting the community in the aftermath of ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred when the incident happened.
Investigations continue into what led to one vehicle leaving the road and rolling several times into a paddock and also how a second tipped on its side.

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The ADF is degrading its unproven combat capabilities by focusing on activities other than warfighting, etc etc. Apply your standard NAFOID talking points on why PLA bad because it does things like disaster recovery.
 
00CuriousObserver

00CuriousObserver

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NYT story about the trip

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