Aliyev threatening war, again

This has of course happened before, but this is the first time after several meetings that it has once more come up and it seems much more resolute than before. A few months ago he talked about talks being fruitless, but there was a caveat:

The president added that it was Azerbaijan’s "sovereign right" to resort to force, if Armenia did not show more negotiating flexibility, Russia’s Regnum news agency reported.

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This seems to talk only about negotiations needing to make some movement, but this is what he is saying now:

Aliyev said, “We are attending to this meeting as a part of our program. This meeting will decisive for the negotiations. We held several meetings this year but we could not achieve any results. If we cannot again achieve any results we will run out of hope.” Stressing that they may use the military option if they lose their hope about peaceful resolution of the conflict, Aliyev said that Azerbaijan should be ready for that option.

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This seems far more definitive in that he is saying without an agreement on resolving the matter there will be a war. Some will say this is just to play into domestic consumption, but I have serious doubts. The same thing was said of Putin's comments on Abkhazia and South Ossetia. When he didn't immediately react to Kosovo's independence with recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia there were people claiming Putin was a paper tiger unwilling to back up his threats.

Azerbaijan is not likely to accept that anymore than Russia did. Even if they do not immediately react it is likely we will see the foundations laid for a war sometime next year. This has potential to be far more explosive than last year's war between Russia and Georgia.

Vlad Plasmius said:

This has potential to be far more explosive than last year's war between Russia and Georgia.

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I don't know about that. Neither side has a clear Western backer, and while Russia has troops based in Armenia, and Turkey supports Azerbaijan, Turkey and Armenia have been reconciling lately (which I think might be why the Azerbaijanis are so anxious all of a sudden) and Armenia is in no way like South Ossetia in terms of its relationship with Russia.

If war does break out, it will probably be a replay of the first one: fighting in Nagorno Karabakh that doesn't solve anything.

sheesh,thnx for not giving us the context of the whole event.
lets see, the mediators are French (represents EU prolly), Russian, American. this region is pretty strategically significant to start with, its got all the gas pipelines and all that good stuff, and it is bordered with Iran...
EU and the US obviously dont want a war here, with the new pipeline (forgot the name) thingy startin in azerbaijan and goin through georgia and turkey. both want to diversify europe's source of energy import.
if a war does happen and russia helps armenia out as per georgian war and wins, it'd surely reduce the damage that pipeline (and in turn comes with a new caspian sea alliance with the US) would do to Russian influence. moreover it'd prolly give iran some more room to maneuver. i actually want to see a war happen just to see how things play out, as well as how obama's so called apologist diplomacy (claimed by neo-cons)handles a real challenge. though that's a bit of an immoral thought.

Finn McCool said:

If war does break out, it will probably be a replay of the first one: fighting in Nagorno Karabakh that doesn't solve anything.

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Agreed. I don't see either side having foreign forces helping them out and if anything they'd put pressure on both countries to not fight it out. And I don't see either side having a big military advantage that would allow it to defeat the other (apart by defining very limited goals for a propaganda victory).

Turkey may not be compelled, but Russia and Armenia are both part of the CSTO so the Russians will feel quite compelled to intervene especially with Russian troops being based in Armenia. It would not surprise me if Obama, in an attempt to dissuade Russian intervention, sends troops to Azerbaijan. That could be done in a much less risky manner than Georgia because Russia is not a direct participant in the conflict. That might also come with the condition that Azerbaijan will limit its military action to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Vlad Plasmius said:

Turkey may not be compelled, but Russia and Armenia are both part of the CSTO so the Russians will feel quite compelled to intervene especially with Russian troops being based in Armenia. It would not surprise me if Obama, in an attempt to dissuade Russian intervention, sends troops to Azerbaijan. That could be done in a much less risky manner than Georgia because Russia is not a direct participant in the conflict. That might also come with the condition that Azerbaijan will limit its military action to Nagorno-Karabakh.

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militarily this is gonna be problematic. it is difficult for russia to intervene directly cuz its boders does not actually connect with Armenia's. so the only forces it has available are the ones in armenia, if these units join the fight they will not see any backup from russia. one option for russia then would be to attack azerbaijan itself from the north, the topography along the coast of caspian sea is quite flat so if they do it right they wouldnt have any problems breaking through the defence. if they go south far enough they'll eventually threaten the capital city itself. this will mean that azerbaijan will be fighting on two fronts, they have to divide their units pretty far apart. and since the caspian coast area is where the oil and gas field is, this is really gonna hit the nerves of US and EU, if it drives up oil prices it could also be quite advantageous for russia. on top of all this, Iran will be reassured. but it is a risky plan because russia doesnt have the moral high ground this time as it did with georgia, since it is not intervening directly where the area of dispute is. if this isnt handled properly, US will have the best excuses to put troops in azerbaijan and even ukraine (that'd be a killer move). so all in all its prolly to risky for medvdev. if it was putin then Russia might go to war.

pla101prc said:

if it was putin then Russia might go to war.

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It is Putin. He' still the one making the decisions.

I don't think Russia will intervene in any major way unless it seems this war will change the strategic situation a lot. That's pretty unlikely, because neither side seems strong enough to win this war.

Obama won't send troops to Azerbaijan, he can't afford to have another war on his hands. Also, there's a pretty big Armenian minority in the US, so Congress ends to support Armenia by default (witness the Armenian genocide resolution).

Finn McCool said:

It is Putin. He' still the one making the decisions.

I don't think Russia will intervene in any major way unless it seems this war will change the strategic situation a lot. That's pretty unlikely, because neither side seems strong enough to win this war.

Obama won't send troops to Azerbaijan, he can't afford to have another war on his hands. Also, there's a pretty big Armenian minority in the US, so Congress ends to support Armenia by default (witness the Armenian genocide resolution).

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Putin isnt as powerful as he used to be, medvedev just recently criticised his party and all that stuff. i think those two are in a power struggle and neither side is strong enough to call the shots. its been more than a year now since med's inauguration, you'd expect him to have put a lot of his own men into the cabinet.
if the war does happen, it will potentially change the strategic situation in caucusus. the pro-NATO strength there will be enhanced, and everything that Russia gained from the georgian victory will be lost.
i am not saying that if russia intervenes then US also intervenes. again ref to georgian war, after the war there was a huge demand for the US to have military presence in the region. but Bush didnt have the energy to deal with that, and he thought that it was only an isolated incident. two events of this sort would make it a trend, so there is prolly a stronger incentive to station troops there. at the best if there was a compromise, it'd still be a EU peacekeeping force, Russia wants neither.

what i am saying is that if you dig deep enough, this is all the cards that each side have. in reality, when you have two countries boasting like this, its likely for the purpose of gaining a stronger position in further negotiation

Finn McCool said:

I don't think Russia will intervene in any major way unless it seems this war will change the strategic situation a lot. That's pretty unlikely, because neither side seems strong enough to win this war.

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Azerbaijan has a clear advantage and definitely has the ability to keep Armenia out of the region. However, this is irrelevant as keeping Russia out is not a matter of the threat, but what Russia has agreed to with Armenia. The first time the collective security arrangement came into effect right before the war ended. Now there is a standing agreement and I do not think Russia wants to look like they are leaving Armenia swaying in the wind.