09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

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mack8

Senior Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
The original source for that Military Watch Magazine article is this one tweet (yes, just ONE):

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010456068640628783

However, by judging the interaction between @Blitzo and that guy when @Blitzo was trying to correct him/her - I can say that he/she has very little solid idea of what he/she's talking about, let alone his attempts at flattering @Blitzo being rather cringeworthy.

Sorry to say, but he/she must not be taken as a dependable and reliable source of information on military-related affairs.

But then, I suppose some military news authors/outlets today are so starved of clicks and likes that they would rather take any random's Tweet and invent some news out of it.


In fact, the information on the size of China's nuclear-powered submarine fleet that is already in water today (i.e. in active service with PLAN + still in fitting-out stages at the shipyard) that is available right now that can be deemed as acceptable is as follows:
- 093/A SSN = 6-8 boats
- 093B SSN = 8-10 boats
- 094/A SSBN = 6-8 boats
Total: 20-26 boats
So where the hell did that guy even get that "34 nuclear submarines in active service" figure from? His/her a$$?



If the last 094 SSBN was constructed back in 2018 - Then what was that boat to the left of this April 2021 photo?

View attachment 168134

Moreover, I think this factor needs to be stressed - The number of SSBNs procured by the PLAN is primarily dependent on how many nuclear warheads the PLAN CMC intends to deploy as China's sea-based nuclear deterrence.

Given that land-based facilities (i.e. silos and TELs) are very much the dominant arm of China's nuclear triad (in fact, far surpassing the aerial and naval arms of the triad), it is no surprise that the PLAN would choose to procure SSBNs at a relatively glacial pace.

Also, with the rumors of the 096 SSBN (with purportedly up to 14 meters of hull diameter) being in the works - Should the PLAN higher ups deem that the wait for the 096 to enter construction to be worth it, then it's once again very normal for the last 094 SSBN to be commissioned back in 2021, and with no new 094 boats constructed ever since.
Click to expand...
Xixi elaborated later on number of operational boats and he said 21, including 12 093 and 9 094, and he gave pennant numbers from a seemingly chinese(?) source. Another 5 093B are said to be on trial. What to make of these numbers? What does the chinese grapevine says?
1768475906362.png
 
para80

para80

Junior Member
Registered Member
mack8 said:
Xixi elaborated later on number of operational boats and he said 21, including 12 093 and 9 094, and he gave pennant numbers from a seemingly chinese(?) source. Another 5 093B are said to be on trial. What to make of these numbers? What does the chinese grapevine says?
View attachment 168194
Click to expand...


Thats a curious list, not the least because hull numbers between Type 09III and 09IV clash with reports elsewhere, including older data shared in this forum (here). The example being 411 & 412, elsewhere given as SSBN.

There are two problems as I see them with counting hulls. One, names and hull number do not necessarily correspond. Ie Changzheng 18, commissioned in 2021, is in some write-ups said to be hull 421. In others its 420 (I suspect, incorrectly). The first Type 09IV Changzheng 9 is sometimes said to have been 409 (like above), but then also stated as 411 elsewhere.

The second is that different write-ups state various commissioning dates for particular hull numbers. The first Type 09IV is usually said to have commissioned in either 2006 or 2007. The second in 2009 or 2010 etc. Probems appear with later hulls too, for example the aforementioned Changzheng 18, usually listed as hull no 6, is in one otherwise well written Chinese language text said to have commissioned in 2020 (demonstrably incorrect) and tied to hull number 420. Ironicaly the same text includes a table where the correct figure is included. These sort of mistakes matter because then a seventh boat is said to have commissioned in 2021 (ie the correct date for Changzheng 18).

The tl;dr here is that just because someone says they have hull numbers as proof, that does not seem to evidence much (even outside intentional, but theoretical re-numbering by PLAN). I do suspect figures higher than six for each type may be due to double counting various stats accumulated over the years from various sources, most of which unfortunately only provide partial evidence for their counts or none at all.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

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