09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[AndrewS]

What have US government reports said about Chinese sub production? If they were pumping out nuclear subs they would probably be making a big deal out of it to get more money for sub construction.

Not sure.

But the issue is really about a lack of capacity and difficulty expanding in the US.
Lots more money just means higher costs for the same output.

 

[para80]

Summary of rumours and speculation:

• Over on CDF someone is positing 10 093Bs launched to date (also 039C production stopped at 6 boats pending introduction of 041 - 1 launched to date).
• Chinese Wiki PLAN ship list also lists 10 093Bs launched to date.
• We had (from POP3/Patch?) claim that 14FYP included 8 x 093B, 2 x 094B and 1 x 095.
• Subsequently there was a claim a further 8 093B ordered in 2nd batch.
• A poster here claimed to have seen something 096 sized in the Eastern hall in SAR imagery.

Personally I think if an 096 is indeed so far along then there's little merit in building 094Bs.

The number for 09IIIB launched is not accurate, and after reaching out to several people keeping track on this I think seven launched and an eighth potentially launched or due soon is correct.

It certainly appears correct that 039C construction either proceeds at glacial pace or presently not at all. In this context we can also note Wuchang picked up the pace on Pakistan's order after the initial boat.

 

[Blitzo]

Summary of rumours and speculation:

• Over on CDF someone is positing 10 093Bs launched to date (also 039C production stopped at 6 boats pending introduction of 041 - 1 launched to date).
• Chinese Wiki PLAN ship list also lists 10 093Bs launched to date.
• We had (from POP3/Patch?) claim that 14FYP included 8 x 093B, 2 x 094B and 1 x 095.
• Subsequently there was a claim a further 8 093B ordered in 2nd batch.
• A poster here claimed to have seen something 096 sized in the Eastern hall in SAR imagery.

Personally I think if an 096 is indeed so far along then there's little merit in building 094Bs.

6-8 09IIIBs is a more reasonable estimate at this stage, which I agree with para80.

The prospect of a 09IVB is similar to the rationale of 09IIIB production alongside 09V production for a period -- risk mitigation while seeking continually enhanced iterative capabilities, while awaiting a more significant capability uplift with the much more sophisticated design (09VI, presumably). A relatively short run of hulls (2-4) could be reasonable while they spin up initial 09VI production.

We did see a "09IVB" model alongside the original 09IIIB model a few years ago (when it had 6 rows rather than 8 rows of VLS), which featured some characteristics of 09IIIB like a more blended sail and also a pumpjet.
Whether this model is representative of something real, and whether they're actually building it and how far along they are whole other matters.

What have US government reports said about Chinese sub production? If they were pumping out nuclear subs they would probably be making a big deal out of it to get more money for sub construction.

Sometimes/often there is a delay between what the US government knows based on their own military/strategic assets versus what they are willing to publicly share.

 

[iewgnem]

Take the first assembly hall, which should be able to assemble modules for [8+ SSN and 1 SSBN] per year.
Realistically, that is more than enough capacity for any peacetime requirement for the Chinese Navy.

---

So what explains the second assembly hall, which should be able to assemble another 8+ SSN per year?

The only rationale conclusion is to build emergency wartime capacity, which might be required immediately, not for 8 years in the future.

There is no such thing as emergency wartime capacity for SSN that takes 3 years to build at best.

 

[AndrewS]

There is no such thing as emergency wartime capacity for SSN that takes 3 years to build at best.

1. A US-China conventional war could last a lot longer than 3 years

2. We can see with the containership testing that they are looking at emergency wartime naval conversions. And as the CHH guys mention in the podcast, one of the (tertiary?) use cases is that in a post-nuclear apocalypse world, the Chinese survivors would have the only real Navy left in the world. Building out excess submarine assembly hall capacity sounds entirely reasonable in comparison.

We also see this happening elsewhere, where there is a lot of capacity built out in purely civilian sectors like solar and electric vehicles, which is underutilised. And I recall the CCTV report on emergency wartime capacity to build components for a thousand cruise missiles per day