You can trust the Americans to do the right thing when they have tried everything else, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill is said to have said. And of course we should hope for a rendezvous with the US in the future. But then the relationship must be more equal – and we must first realise that the core of the one we have right now is crumbling.
The fact is that Europe must very quickly replace the US – capability for capability
According to the Reuters news agency, the Pentagon explained to European diplomats in December that we have one year to take over responsibility for the defence of our continent. When European leaders discussed this very issue in the spring, the timetable was between five and ten years. Of course, it cannot be fully achieved in one year, but the fact is that Europe must very quickly replace the US – capability for capability.
The same applies to the nuclear umbrella. After JD Vance's speech at the Munich Security Conference last winter, Emmanuel Macron opened up for French nuclear weapons to also protect others, which was followed by a joint declaration with Keir Starmer to include British ones as well. Talks with the Germans began in August.
If Europe had been united, had full insight into the crisis, and consistently demonstrated the will to act, it might have been safe to say that we were on the right track. But Viktor Orbán is constantly dividing. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez says that the Russians will not march over the Pyrenees after all. Where the French, British and Italians will get the money for their rearmament is a mystery.
In addition, Nigel Farage and Marine Le Pen could soon govern in London and Paris. Le Pen says no to European cooperation on French nuclear weapons.
Was it pointless for Sweden to join NATO? No, we are still safer together with others and membership enables greatly deepened defense cooperation in the Nordic countries. But it would be foolish to pretend that things went as planned, or that we will now primarily build infrastructure to be able to receive help from outside. Nor is it just a matter of us within Europe fairly distributing the burden that is to be taken over from the USA.
Is a capability needed in Northern Europe? The combination of nuclear cutting-edge expertise and advanced defense industry gives Sweden a key role in that case
Of course, we should count on the Spaniards and Italians having our backs, but also on the fact that it means we have to be in the front line. Not everyone will spend 3.5 percent of GDP on the military, and those of us who can afford it and realize the seriousness of the situation should be prepared to spend more than that. And there should be a plan for if more than the US wavers.
Therefore, a discussion about nuclear weapons is also needed that extends beyond how the French and British will be able to protect the entire continent. Is a capability needed in Northern Europe? The combination of nuclear cutting-edge expertise and advanced defense industry gives Sweden a key role in that case.