PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

Jason_ · 2025-09-11T22:56:44-0400

Blitzo said:
From an infographic point of view I think it is very thorough and high quality, particularly in terms of the symbology.

I am a little bit cautious about some of the "certainty" of some of the depictions (even if I think it does a good job of showing aspects of multidomain operations), and there is a likelihood of this getting memed into the whole "arrows go brrr" or "don't siege leningrad, take it immediately" aspect if it is presented too confidently without context, particularly with adjectives like "lethal".

That's just my past experience when talking among the sort of different skeptic groups that you seemed to design this infographic against.

(Obvious gotchas would be challenging the idea of the PLA being able to secure the 1IC and 2IC to begin with and asking about the role of the USN and USAF in the region, US regional missile/hypersonic forces, US submarine launched hypersonics etc, which would play important roles in any multidomain HIC in the first phase of a conflict. Other things to consider would be that both the PRC and US would be utilizing more advanced weapons by 2030s, the US for example would likely have air launched hypersonics well in service by then, but I digress)

That said, overall I agree with the thrust of what you've depicted -- if the PLA are capable of securing the 1IC and neutralise the 2IC, the natural next step would be to possess a multidomain capability to conduct localized strategic offensive operations to deny and degrade long range US strike bomber sorties/capabilities while simultaneously carrying out a layered defense strategy.

Edit: I somewhat lol at the tanker being depicted as KC-135 rather than KC-46.

Also, I'm going to move these posts somewhere else, such as the HIC strike strategy thread; the 2025 parade thread isn't very good for this discussion.

I agree with the points you have raised. As I mentioned before, I think there is a lack of "think tank style" graphic/narrative from the Chinese side and I am trying to imitate the US think tank style including some over the top phrases, over confidence/excess certainty, "big arrow with planes," "I have future capabilities while you are stuck with current capabilities," etc. In other words, think of them as features instead of bugs. If I "fix" these issues it just wouldn't be as fun.

Blitzo · 2025-09-11T23:02:04-0400

ZeEa5KPul said:
Well, yeah. This is about the 2030s, anything of the US's then in the FIC isn't a combatant, it's a victim of a violent crime. That's probably true today except for maybe submarines, but it's not an argument I care to have. If it isn't, it certainly will be in 10 years.

Well, if the intent of this infographic is meant to confront individuals who tout B-21 as a means of targeting and/or defeating the PRC in a HIC, those individuals are probably going to require more than a fair bit of signposting to accept the notion of the PRC being able to win a 1IC/westpac conflict to such a degree such that they have the ability to carry out strategic offensive operations outside of the immediate westpac/1IC/2IC region.

Jason_ said:
I agree with the points you have raised. As I mentioned before, I think there is a lack of "think tank style" graphic/narrative from the Chinese side and I am trying to imitate the US think tank style including some over the top phrases, over confidence/excess certainty, "big arrow with planes," "I have future capabilities while you are stuck with current capabilities," etc. In other words, think of them as features instead of bugs. If I "fix" these issues it just wouldn't be as fun.

Yeah, I somewhat suspected that was the goal.

I'm not entirely sure if such infographics from the "PLA watching side" is constructive in the sense that it would just serve as a means for others to dismiss the PLA watching community as simplistic/unrealistic/missing obvious US counters and strategies (i.e.: many of the same critiques leveraged to thinktanks).

Advanced/ironic ragebaiting and trolling is certainly something I see the motivation in, but I suspect people aren't going to interpret it this way.

I suppose if you titled it explicitly in a way of "if Chinese thinktanks produced overconfident US style maps with arrows" then it could be a bit more noticeable that way and somewhat more immune to the obvious critiques.
But I also think that would be a bit of a waste of effort and talent, because the underlying premises of your depicted strategy are fairly sound.

00CuriousObserver · 2025-09-11T23:04:08-0400

I don't believe the first and second ICs will be neutralized until well into the 2030s, if not later /shrug

Their neutralization is a humongous assumption.

At the same time, I see this infographic also as showing what’s needed to neutralize the island chains, and that both are, for the most part, two sides of the same coin

Blitzo · 2025-09-11T23:10:11-0400

00CuriousObserver said:
I don't believe the first and second ICs will be neutralized until well into the 2030s, if not later /shrug

For the 1IC, I think being able to neutralize those in a HIC could be viable by the early 2030s depending on how geopolitical decision making pre-conflict occurs as well as which other nations get involved.
For the 2IC it would be immediately dependent on how quickly the 1IC distance conflict is resolved and balance of in theater (and remaining forces) occur, because the 2IC is in some ways more fragile and limited in basing opportunities than the 1IC but their vulnerability is mitigated by a smaller count of long range PLA strike systems reaching there at present. But a more robust PLA 2IC distance ISR/strike complex may well be able to outrun 2IC basing IAMDs in both quantity and sophistication while being able to bring to bear additional strike complexes if the 1IC tussle is resolved quickly in the PLA's favour.

00CuriousObserver said:
Their neutralization is a humongous assumption.

I agree with this.

PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

Jason_

Junior Member

Blitzo

General

00CuriousObserver

Junior Member

Blitzo

General