China's transport, tanker & heavy lift aircraft - esp. Y-20/YY-20

ENTED64 said:

These things take time, usually years, to work out.

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Totally get where you're coming from: billion $ defense transactions can take years to firm up once they're agreed to in principal, especially if some degree of localization/ToT or offsets are involved.

Maybe I'm not paying enough attention or just looking in the wrong direction, but a bit surprised that there haven't been any reported tire kickers except KSA.

Was also told that many civil operators of the Il-76 that would be interested in the Y-20 bought their Il-76 airframes second hand at discounted rates when the collapse of the USSR apparently glutted that market for years, and won't be able to afford shiny new Y-20s. Not sure how true that is, but could be a factor. Who knows . . .

Deino said:

IMO highly unlikely if not simply impossible based on all images we have, based on all known/confirmed serial numbers we get in certain intervals (I know we are always late, but not about 50 aircraft), based on the known units ... and even more it simply makes no sense at all!

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That's fair. I know you've been watching the PLAAF for a long time, so appreciate your assessment here!

Obviously not going to hold you to this, but if you're to ballpark it, how many Y-20 airframes of all varieties do you think XAC is cranking out yearly?

More Y-20B footage and images. I think we have 20341 through 20344.

Godswill said:

You sound like you/PLA think war is imminent. I'm more used to the old PLA approach of quick small steps. Like 052C is a very capable ship, but China did not mass produce it even though China desperately need such destroyers with good air defense capability at the time.

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@MiraiAAA

Note that the Chinese Air Force is currently producing 120+ modern fighter jets per year.
Over the course of the next 10 years, that is way more than enough for defensive purposes.

Producing that many aircraft only makes sense if you also want to obtain air superiority over the 1st Island Chain and also reach the 2nd Island Chain.

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So extending the reach, endurance and payload of these fighter jets is the next logical step.

The USAF rule of thumb is 1 tanker for every 4 fighter jets.
So if we're looking at around 2000 fighters in the Chinese Air Force, that would mean 500 tanker aircraft.
Production of 120 fighters per year would imply a requirement for 30 tankers per year.

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I reckon this is the minimum requirement, as demand for tankers will only increase given:

1. Increases in annual fighter jet production. A probable increase from 120+ to 160-200 would imply 40-50 tankers per year
2. Extended-distance operations in the Western Pacific to the 2nd Island Chain by fighters or bombers or carrier-based aircraft

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So [50 tankers x 10 years] sounds reasonable from a requirements perspective

Parade rehearsal footage.

Y-20B overhead.