The War in the Ukraine

lcloo said:

The effect of Ukraine's drone attack on Russian airbases shows that they can attack anywhere in Russia, but only if they planned like a year or a year and a half before hand. And most of the aircraft destroyed were strategic bombers that are more relevent to NATO and USA rather than on battlefields in Ukraine.

In way NATO and US should be quite pleased that Ukraine managed to reduce Russia's strategic strenght, and may influence NATO's decision to increase arms shipment and monentary aids to Ukraine. However, the price paid by Ukraine is Russia's revenge in one of the most destrutive missile and drone attack.

On the ground, Russians are still pushing and gaining territories eventhough very slowly. Attacks on Russian airbases has little effect on frontlines.

As on drones, Ukrainians seem to be progressing onward to self-made drones rather than buying from outher countries, especially the suicide drones. I have just watch a CCTV reporting yeaterday with video footages on a Ukrainian workshop using several dozens of 3D printers making drone parts, with reported production capacity of 4,000 drones a month.

If they have several such workshops, they will have sustainable supply of FPV drones.

In a big picture, neither side can make fast progress, this may be a long war.

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I won't call 20-30 square kilometers on average daily as very slow. This has accelerated from 10km a day in 2024. Sometimes it's 10 sqkm for the day, then over 70 sqkm on another. Ukrainian mapping also Deep State UA is very slow in admitting changes to the front, sometimes the Russians take a settlement with multiple geolocated flag placing locations and the Ukrainians will only admit to it's loss a week or two later.

Attack on Russian air bases can have an effect on the frontlines, if and only if, they were the right bases. Concrete shelters are being installed where Su-34s and Flankers are. Given these aircraft are top priority, the less important are the ones that have to wait. That's why the low priority airbases were attacked. The Russians hoped that distance (falsely) would make them safe. One of these airbases is much closer to China than to Ukraine.

As for drones, Zelensky is complaining that they have been cut off from the supply of Mavics while the Russians are still getting them. We also have reports that Ukraine is now suffering from drone shortages thanks to China shutting down all the export avenues for banned drone components. The same doesn't seem to be a problem for the Russians however.


Once reliant on Chinese components, the Russians have been gradually indigenously producing parts within Russia such as electric motors. For instance the motor for the Lancet was allegedly Chinese but the Russians are now making it locally. The Russians have also learned to cut down costs for example by using 3D printed carved wooden blades for propellers.

One must add that's it's becoming relatively easy for the Russians to intercept a Baba Yagas hexacopter which is the Ukrainian premium drone. Each Baba Yaga is about $10 to $20 thousand dollars each in cost and you can afford a thousand dollar FPV drone on that. Baba Yagas are also getting shot down by snipers, by purposed interceptor drones, by drones dropping nets, and getting hacked by EW.

Mavic ramming however is a no no as the Russians sent out a memorandum not to do this anymore. Which further adds credence to the Russians still using Mavics along with drone footage showing Mavic UI. Ramming a Baba Yaga is futile because with six blades, a Baba Yaga can still return home even with some blades are disabled.

However Baba Yagas going home can result in a tactical disadvantage as Russian drones and UAV would follow them to the spot where they will be picked up by the Ukrainian drone team. The team is followed to their secret forward base which is treated to a Molniya winged FPV drone, a Krasnopol guided shell or even a LMUR air to ground missile.

It's not really how much drones you make, but the attrition and replacement of your drone teams because they are not invulnerable and invisible from attack.

The first unique footage of the interception of a Ukrainian FPV drone by Russian soldiers using scissors. The soldiers set up an ambush after the Ukrainian drone appeared, the fiber optic cable through which it is controlled was simply cut. After losing communication, the drone fell and exploded

tamsen_ikard said:

The way Ukraine keeps attacking Russia in deep areas and keep inflicting losses. I am worried again that Russia might lose. They are not gaining anything these days. Ukraine is on the ascendance

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Remember it's a publicly stated "3 weeks special military operation" to subdue all of Ukraine, disarm and "denazify" the country or whatever that even means. Lol
Also remember that this is a country that made most people believe it could take on the US and NATO and win.. Lol

Randomuser said:

Seems like they are pretty much going high profile guerilla/terrorism style to give the impression they are doing something so their funding doesn't cut off.

I am reading people say it's actually beneficial for China if this war goes on for another 5-10 years.

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If your country was invaded by a great power and threatened your own very survival as a country, then don't you think its legitimate for you to use every method at your disposal to fight off and chase away the enemy? Vietnam did the same against France and U. S, Afghanistan did the same against the Soviet Union in the 70s etc etc.

Its like criticising China in the late 30s to 40s when they were using all sort of guerilla warfare and attacks to fight off Japan's invasion.. According to some people's logic, China should just have laid down arms and accept Japan's rule or conditions(afterall, why make their country suffer from all damage and destruction caused by war?lol) Afterall, even Japan had a good excuse/reason for invading China just like Russia has a good excuse invading ukraine. Lol

Randomuser said:

I am reading people say it's actually beneficial for China if this war goes on for another 5-10 years.

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Of course it is for obvious reasons. In fact, One can even say China(along with the US to a lesser extent ) is the biggest beneficiary of this war. Due to this war Russia had been forced (believe me they didn't want to) to realign much of her economy and politics towards China since they have no choice now unlike before. This has enable China to be much more involved in all sectors of Russia's economy which is a big Win for China. The more this war continues the better for China since it will only deepen Russia's dependence on China.. Plus. Once you have reached a certain level of dependence economically its much harder to undo even after or if the war ends. So this dependency will continue for a long time as Russia has get even weaker and China(and US to some extent) grows stronger. So it's in China's interest to keep Russia in this war.
Moreover, deep down Russia has always been wary of China to be honest, Reason they have often prioritise ties with the West over China prior to this war. Even today they still have some sort of reluctance/wariness towards China.

To be fair, I don't think they are wrong to be worried as well, afterall, such things have happened before, even though both sides have kept them silent and tried not to make a big deal out of things. The thing is as long as both countries share a border its normal for Russia to be wary of China and China should be as well to some extent.. It's a normal reaction with 2 big powers share a border. That's why I believe this war is good for China. The only way one sides wariness and fear will reduce is if one side is so weak compared to the other that they don't have any reason to worry as much anymore. So the balance of power and technology will have to be so overwhelming from one side that they accept their place and even regard the other with goodwill, just like Canada and Mexico do towards the US. Afterall,, they know the US doesn't really have anything to envy or want from them. If anything they will benefit more from the US. So yeah that's how ideally things should be between both countries. If the balance of power(both military, technological and economic) isn't too overwhelming from one side
then there will be tension, wariness and competition from both sides. Just like it happened eventually during the sino soviet issues in the late 60s to early 90s with the fall of the soviet Union.

Michael90 said:

If your country was invaded by a great power and threatened your own very survival as a country, then don't you think its legitimate for you to use every method at your disposal to fight off and chase away the enemy? Vietnam did the same against France and U. S, Afghanistan did the same against the Soviet Union in the 70s etc etc.

Its like criticising China in the late 30s to 40s when they were using all sort of guerilla warfare and attacks to fight off Japan's invasion.. According to some people's logic, China should just have laid down arms and accept Japan's rule or conditions(afterall, why make their country suffer from all damage and destruction caused by war?lol) Afterall, even Japan had a good excuse/reason for invading China just like Russia has a good excuse invading ukraine. Lol

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Well of course it would look nice if you only look at the cases where they won. It didn't go so well for Jews with Rome, Carthage with Rome or Paraguay with its neighbours, Tamil Tigers etc. Or in the case of Russia we look at Circassians, Poland or Finland.

Its also hard to equate it with WW2 China because it was so big that even when it had no one backing it when it needed it most and was in civil war, Japan couldn't get further than the coastal provinces and the northeast which was already part of it in a way. Lets not forget Japan is not resource rich either which is different from Russia. So one can actually see theres a way out esp when its across the sea.

Anyway I guess if the war will last another 5 years then its too early to tell.

Michael90 said:

If your country was invaded by a great power and threatened your own very survival as a country, then don't you think its legitimate for you to use every method at your disposal to fight off and chase away the enemy? Vietnam did the same against France and U. S, Afghanistan did the same against the Soviet Union in the 70s etc etc.

Its like criticising China in the late 30s to 40s when they were using all sort of guerilla warfare and attacks to fight off Japan's invasion.. According to some people's logic, China should just have laid down arms and accept Japan's rule or conditions(afterall, why make their country suffer from all damage and destruction caused by war?lol) Afterall, even Japan had a good excuse/reason for invading China just like Russia has a good excuse invading ukraine. Lol

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That's why Deng Xiao Ping came out with "Does not matter if it is a black cat or a white cat, as long as it catches the mouse". The end justified the means.

Michael90 said:

Remember it's a publicly stated "3 weeks special military operation" to subdue all of Ukraine, disarm and "denazify" the country or whatever that even means. Lol
Also remember that this is a country that made most people believe it could take on the US and NATO and win.. Lol

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Lol, you fell for that stupid piece of BS propaganda, too? Dare to point who and where said that (on Russia side)?
BTW, they ARE fighting US and whole NATO...and winning

Michael90 said:

If your country was invaded by a great power and threatened your own very survival as a country, then don't you think its legitimate for you to use every method at your disposal to fight off and chase away the enemy? Vietnam did the same against France and U. S, Afghanistan did the same against the Soviet Union in the 70s etc etc.

Its like criticising China in the late 30s to 40s when they were using all sort of guerilla warfare and attacks to fight off Japan's invasion.. According to some people's logic, China should just have laid down arms and accept Japan's rule or conditions(afterall, why make their country suffer from all damage and destruction caused by war?lol) Afterall, even Japan had a good excuse/reason for invading China just like Russia has a good excuse invading ukraine. Lol

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Vietnam fought and won conventionally. The guerilla side was found to be ineffective after the Tet offensive.

Michael90 said:

Remember it's a publicly stated "3 weeks special military operation" to subdue all of Ukraine, disarm and "denazify" the country or whatever that even means. Lol
Also remember that this is a country that made most people believe it could take on the US and NATO and win.. Lol

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Lol
Don't try to list NATO and the US as separate large militaries. NATO is basically he US. Without US, NATO is .... Nothing.
Remember the US also felt they can quickly win in Afghanistan, Vietnam, Korea and the Houthis. George Bush declared mission accomplished

And they think they can win in a war with Russia? Russia never state they can win against the US /nato. Putin said so himself. But NATO wouldn't be able to walk over Russia. It be a stalemate at best.