The War in the Ukraine

[Tam]

There is quite an increase on Lanset drones videos.

Makes me wonder if it is because production picked up or if the Russian leadership wasnt convinced of the value of kamikaze drones until the Gerans proved them wrong

It is said according to blogs, that around two or three months ago, they finally got the AI image recognition algorithm fixed or so as they say, to finally complete and make the weapon work. Unlike other drones, the Lancet hunts and identifies it's targets autonomously. There is no man in the loop in its attack phase. The TV image it records is only for kill confirmation, not for a human to manually ID targets and authorize to target and attack.

This makes the Lancet a different and much smarter tech than the Geran which are only meant to attack static sites by giving the target's GPS coordinates. In this sense the Lancet is a true robot. The reason why Switchblade hasn't matched the Lancet's surprising success might have to do with this algorithm. I get the feeling that the MIC is using the war as a way to test and hone similar algorithms for the Switchblade, it's just that I suspect the Russians manage to get there first.

There is talk about discussions bringing the Meraj 521 into the combat zone. Unlike Shahed and more like the Lancet and Switchblade, this is a true loitering drone and a robot. I don't think its because Russians need help, but more like the Iranians might want the opportunity to test the drones in real combat. This is a scratch your back scratch my back relationship.

 

[sheogorath]

In my opinion, the problem with Switchblade type drones is that the payload and range is negligible for a war of this type. You are better served by having a comercial drone carry grenades/mortar rounds and drop several of them over the enemy.

The Switchblades seem more like a holdover from the GWOT days.

 

[sheogorath]

What I thought was a CAESAR was actually an italian FH70

Also there was another FH70 destroyed although this one hit the ammo truck

 

[reservior dogs]

It's easy to hit your quota when it is set comically low in the first place. 300k troops is chicken feed for a nation of 140m people that purports to be facing an existential threat. If Russia's actions matched its rhetoric, they would've called up millions. Australia sent more than 300k troops to fight overseas in WW1, from a total population at the time of around four million people.

You have seen how it went when they made the mad dash across the country. The Russians simply don't have the logistics to support a million men army. They are also fighting NATO. That means if Russia ends the war too early, the Europeans will get back on their feet and the Russians will still be under sanction. This is a war of attrition with NATO. They need to ensure that they outlast NATO. It is for this reason Putin is restricting the scope of the war to minimize the burn rate. Of course if needed, they can call up another 300K and another 300K after that, but doing so sequentially will allow them to make best use of their limited resources and outlast NATO. As long as the kill ratio is lopsided in favor of Russia, in a year or two, Ukraine, along with NATO will run out of men and equipment.

 

[Tam]

Vehicules receiving a grenade in the open hatch from a quad copter is so depressing. The small payload become insanely effective. Fancy 360 degree camera system on vehicule are fragile, subject to mud and shrapnels but stop ammunitions falling on your lap. With the profusion of UAV, climatisation and 360 view could become a necessary addon. Some sort of mini c-ram in small caliber with optical/infrared-guidance against the background, could be interesting against these and atgm.

One time a grenade dropped by a quadcopter went inside the hatch of a Ukrainian tank. In another, grenades or mortal shells were dropped by the quadcopter right into the trenches where Ukrainian soldiers were sleeping. These soldiers may never wake up from their sleep. Grenades and shells were dropped on other vehicles like pickups and SUVs, and others thrown into trails where the soldiers are walking. In one very depressing video, it appears that the target's legs were both blown off when the grenade landed right next to him. These quadcopter drops appear to be among the most common released in particular by the DPR and LPR, not by Wagner or the Russian forces. I would expect the Ukrainians are doing similar things to the Russians. Oddly, rarely people look up to see the drone, they would think they were being attacked by artillery or mortar, or the enemy is closeby throwing a grenade at them.

 

[Zichan]

It is said according to blogs, that around two or three months ago, they finally got the AI image recognition algorithm fixed or so as they say, to finally complete and make the weapon work. Unlike other drones, the Lancet hunts and identifies it's targets autonomously. There is no man in the loop in its attack phase. The TV image it records is only for kill confirmation, not for a human to manually ID targets and authorize to target and attack.

This makes the Lancet a different and much smarter tech than the Geran which are only meant to attack static sites by giving the target's GPS coordinates. In this sense the Lancet is a true robot. The reason why Switchblade hasn't matched the Lancet's surprising success might have to do with this algorithm. I get the feeling that the MIC is using the war as a way to test and hone similar algorithms for the Switchblade, it's just that I suspect the Russians manage to get there first.

Any info on what kind of processing chipsets they are using?

I have some reservations about this claim. In all videos I’ve seen at least, there was an observation drone filming the attack. Not what I would expect from a completely autonomous loitering weapon. I think a human operator is still required to at least ID and select the target and from then on the weapon uses image processing to home on target.

 

[Tam]

Any info on what kind of processing chipsets they are using?

I have some reservations about this claim. In all videos I’ve seen at least, there was an observation drone filming the attack. Not what I would expect from a completely autonomous loitering weapon. I think a human operator is still required to at least ID and select the target and from then on the weapon uses image processing to home on target.

The purpose of the loitering drone is autonomous. If you need a human in the loop, the datalink would be constrained by the radar horizon and the low flight of the drone itself. The operator would have to be on an aircraft or require a drone to relay the datalink. A relay drone isn't something I would expect of an Orlan 10.

The observing drone is likely the target spotter, which tells the station to send the second and attacking drone to this coordinates. The observation drone and the attacking drones camera will only be used for target kill confirmation. It's not likely you will need PC level chipsets. Point and shoot cameras are capable of face ID.

 

[sheogorath]

Seems the Lancet's are working overtime lately

A Krab getting hit. The way the explosion went through the turret seems like it has a HEAT warhead

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588479330942058497

Another M109, which bursts into flames soon after

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588480342679339009

An Strela getting hit as well

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588497785380560896

Another Strela getting hit, though it seemed it was hit with artillery.

 

[memfisa]

Wow I was watching through some telegrams and Russia seems to have killed more western SPGs in the last couple days than in the entire war. They are in full hunter killer mode with these drones all of a sudden. Better late then never

It looks like in the last day they have smoked one of every flavour of SPG

Not only that, Krasnopol seems to be every where all of sudden!

Doesn't sound like much at first glance, but it's like a whole new level of war the Ruskies have figures out

 

[Atomicfrog]

Wow I was watching through some telegrams and Russia seems to have killed more western SPGs in the last couple days than in the entire war. They are in full hunter killer mode with these drones all of a sudden. Better late then never

It looks like in the last day they have smoked one of every flavour of SPG

Not only that, Krasnopol seems to be every where all of sudden!

Doesn't sound like much at first glance, but it's like a whole new level of war the Ruskies have figures out

Maybe the industrial output and strategy catched out after testing weapons in the first 6 months. I would ditch low flying CAS with flankers bigtime... will push for heavy production of Izdeliye 305 lmur.