Miscellaneous News

[AndrewS]

Cost doesn't correlate directly with EROEI because the cost of solar panels isn't entirely driven by energy or raw materials.

Yes, but polysilicon production is very electricity intensive. And we've seen significant decreases in the amount of materials required (and therefore energy) to produce solar.

So 3x is a reasonable working assumption. But even a 2x difference completely debunks old studies on solar EROEI.

Subject matter experts at NREL have already analyzed this. Their estimated EROEI in this paper is 7-10 which matches the earlier source.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Bloomberg is not a subject matter expert on photovoltaics or semiconductor and has made willful mistakes like the Supermicro case. NREL is the premier renewable energy lab of the US Department of Energy.

The NREL paper you use has old data again. 2017 this time. That is a lifetime ago in the world of solar.
So of course the NREL and world-nuclear.org sources match up, given that they use the same OLD data.

---

There are lots of solar costs analyses, but here is the version from Lazards which covers 2014-2021. Their estimate is that solar costs have decreased by almost 2.5x in this timeframe. And Lazard's actually spend billions on funding energy projects.

lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen/

---

Why is it so difficult to accept that solar has seen huge improvements in the past few years?

We all know that Chinese data which is just 2 years old can be completely obsolete.

And solar is an industry which is dominated by Chinese companies which are relentless at reducing costs, and therefore energy consumption

80% of all solar production is located in China and the estimate is that by 2025, China will account for 95%.

 

[AndrewS]

Subject matter experts at NREL have already analyzed this. Their estimated EROEI in this paper is 7-10 which matches the earlier source.

So let's say the NREL EROEI paper is accurate as of 2017

If costs have decreased by 2-2.5x, you get the following solar EROEI figures

2x adjustment: EROEI of 7-10 becomes 14-20
2.5x adjustment: EROEI of 7-10 becomes 17.5-25

That matches up with the guaranteed performance levels of todays P-Type and N-Type solar panels, which I've seen range from 17-27 for EROEI.

Again, you cannot use OLD data when looking at fast-moving technologies

Look at how the West is in denial at China's development because they are all using old datapoints

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

So let's say the NREL EROEI paper is accurate as of 2017

If costs have decreased by 2-2.5x, you get the following solar EROEI figures

2x adjustment: EROEI of 7-10 becomes 14-20
2.5x adjustment: EROEI of 7-10 becomes 17.5-25

That matches up with the guaranteed performance levels of todays P-Type and N-Type solar panels, which I've seen range from 17-27 for EROEI.

I already noted that cost is not a proxy for EREOI because not all costs are energy related.

 

[AndrewS]

I already noted that cost is not a proxy for EREOI because not all costs are energy related.

Cost is a suitable proxy because the final cost of a solar panel has very contribution from the:

a) labour component
b) capital investment components.

A panel is mostly materials, so cost reductions reduce the material content, and likely means a direct reduction in the energy required.

---
And the other side of the equation is technology improvements in efficiency and longevity, which increase electricity generation.

So if the NREL have an estimate of EROEI of 7-10 back in 2014, what do you expect the figure to be today?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Yes, but polysilicon production is very electricity intensive. And we've seen significant decreases in the amount of materials required (and therefore energy) to produce solar.

So 3x is a reasonable working assumption. But even a 2x difference completely debunks old studies on solar EROEI.



The NREL paper you use has old data again. 2017 this time. That is a lifetime ago in the world of solar.
So of course the NREL and world-nuclear.org sources match up, given that they use the same OLD data.

---

There are lots of solar costs analyses, but here is the version from Lazards which covers 2014-2021. Their estimate is that solar costs have decreased by almost 2.5x in this timeframe. And Lazard's actually spend billions on funding energy projects.

lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen/

---

Why is it so difficult to accept that solar has seen huge improvements in the past few years?

We all know that Chinese data which is just 2 years old can be completely obsolete.

And solar is an industry which is dominated by Chinese companies which are relentless at reducing costs, and therefore energy consumption

80% of all solar production is located in China and the estimate is that by 2025, China will account for 95%.

Cost is a suitable proxy because the final cost of a solar panel has very contribution from the:

a) labour component
b) capital investment components.

A panel is mostly materials, so cost reductions reduce the material content, and likely means a direct reduction in the energy required.

---
And the other side of the equation is technology improvements in efficiency and longevity, which increase electricity generation.

So if the NREL have an estimate of EROEI of 7-10 back in 2014, what do you expect the figure to be today?

We have actual cost breakdowns so there's no guessing involved.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Note the cost breakdown. Most of the cost is in non-silicon related components of the photovoltaic module. Most of the decline in cost is 1.) amortizing R&D and 2.) declining rest of module costs. Silicon and wafer processing costs are not changing much. This is not surprising since wafer processing and silicon costs draw on the existing semiconductor industry which already has best practices known for silicon production and wafer processing.

NREL also makes very optimistic assumptions like average 22% efficiency while

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, so real costs are more in line with their 2019 estimates.

More estimates on payback time, which is a more direct measure of EROEI than currency cost:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Consensus is 6-10 years at best as of 2021, a far cry from the 3 month payback time for nuclear and hydro.

As for why I'm skeptical, without doxxing myself, it's sufficient to say I'm not an uneducated or merely self educated layman in photovoltaics. In the course of my association with the field, I found the amount of overhyping, overselling and overpromising to be excessive.

 

[FriedButter]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1565055591634112515

DOJ Is Likely to Wait Past Midterms to Reveal Any Trump Charges​

Federal prosecutors are likely to wait until after the November election to announce any charges against Donald Trump, if they determine he broke laws, according to people familiar.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I guess it isn’t too long before both sides are at each other throat.

 

[Appix]

U.S. tightens chip export rules to China, hitting Nvidia and AMD​

TAIPEI -- The U.S. is further restricting shipments to China of high-end graphics processors and AI accelerators used in high-performance computing, a move that is already affecting Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices as Washington steps up efforts to curb Chinese technological and military advancements.

Nvidia confirmed to Nikkei Asia that two of its premium AI computing chips and one type of its powerful AI computing system were affected by a new U.S. regulation. The company said it will seek export control licenses and will also talk to customers in China about the issue.

AMD meanwhile alerted its China operations on Wednesday that the U.S. chipmaker will suspend some shipments of high-end GPUs to China, according to two people familiar with the matter. AMD confirmed to Nikkei Asia that it has received notification of new licensing requirements from the U.S. Department of Commerce that prevent it from shipping MI250 integrated circuits to China and Russia.

"The only current products that the new licensing requirement applies to are A100, H100 and systems such as DGX that include them," a Nvidia spokesperson said, referring to the company's premium AI accelerators, which can be used to develop cutting-edge supercomputers.

AMD's MI250 chip is another such AI accelerator.

An official from the Commerce Department told Nikkei Asia that the agency cannot comment on specific policy changes but said it is taking a comprehensive approach to implement additional actions necessary to protect U.S. national security and foreign policy interests and avoid any advanced U.S. technologies ending up being used in Chinese military applications.

Non-paywall source:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1565165236830609409

 

[Temstar]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are still planning on meeting in person at some point, National Security Council coordinator John Kirby told reporters Wednesday, but it remains unclear when the meeting will take place.

Lol Kirby is still going on about this.

 

[Overbom]

U.S. tightens chip export rules to China, hitting Nvidia and AMD​

TAIPEI -- The U.S. is further restricting shipments to China of high-end graphics processors and AI accelerators used in high-performance computing, a move that is already affecting Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices as Washington steps up efforts to curb Chinese technological and military advancements.

Nvidia confirmed to Nikkei Asia that two of its premium AI computing chips and one type of its powerful AI computing system were affected by a new U.S. regulation. The company said it will seek export control licenses and will also talk to customers in China about the issue.

AMD meanwhile alerted its China operations on Wednesday that the U.S. chipmaker will suspend some shipments of high-end GPUs to China, according to two people familiar with the matter. AMD confirmed to Nikkei Asia that it has received notification of new licensing requirements from the U.S. Department of Commerce that prevent it from shipping MI250 integrated circuits to China and Russia.

"The only current products that the new licensing requirement applies to are A100, H100 and systems such as DGX that include them," a Nvidia spokesperson said, referring to the company's premium AI accelerators, which can be used to develop cutting-edge supercomputers.

AMD's MI250 chip is another such AI accelerator.

An official from the Commerce Department told Nikkei Asia that the agency cannot comment on specific policy changes but said it is taking a comprehensive approach to implement additional actions necessary to protect U.S. national security and foreign policy interests and avoid any advanced U.S. technologies ending up being used in Chinese military applications.

Non-paywall source:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Hahaha.
This garbage company deserves it for being an American slave. Always knew that they were a "fraudulent" company compared to BYD.

See how much NIO was proud for cooperating with NVIDIA? Serves them right.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Good stuff. Using NVIDIA DGX. So lets see how good it is... oh actually it doesn't matter because it is now forbidden to get it:

"The only current products that the new licensing requirement applies to are A100, H100 and systems such as DGX

Lol

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Electric vehicle maker NIO is using NVIDIA HGX A100 to build a comprehensive data center infrastructure for developing AI-powered, software-defined vehicles. With high-performance compute, the automaker can continuously iterate on sophisticated deep learning models, creating robust autonomous driving algorithms in a closed-loop environment.

“The complex scenarios faced by mass-produced cars and the massive amount of data these fleets generate are the cornerstones of NIO’s autonomous driving capabilities,” said Bai Yuli, head of AI Platforms at NIO. “By using NVIDIA high-performance compute solutions, NIO can get shafted accelerate the path to autonomous driving.”

Lmao

 

[coolgod]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Looks like the UN is now politicized, when Trump comes back in 2024, the P5 might as well disband the UN.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!