Ukrainian War Developments

[9dashline]

The Norwegian Nobel Committee should issue a public statement promising to award this year's peace prize to any Russian officers who take down Vladimir Putin. The first Nobel Laureate coup plotters.

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499586442451996672

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ELI LAKE

Eli Lake @EliLake -- National Security Journalism Fellow at @ClementsCenter -- Training the next generation of #NationalSecurity leaders on History | Strategy | Statecraft at @UTAustin The University of Texas at Austin
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Eli Lake is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering national security and foreign policy. He was the senior national security correspondent for the Daily Beast and covered national security and intelligence for the Washington Times, the New York Sun and UPI.

This is crazy.... I guess it really shows the West realizes this is the final last stand.... With Russia + China together as Little Marco twitted the other day it will be 50 + 1 = 51 times as hard to win as Cold War 1.0 .... Chinese living in 5Eyes should stop having any disillusions that in a TW reunification scenario (whether or not forced by the likes of Pompous who is right now as we speak in TW instigating for independence) they will be asking for the camps, if not the gas chambers.

 

[MortyandRick]

If they can find a way to trade with Iran, they can do the same with Russia.

They just need time to change to Yuan/local-currency payment and to sanction-proof banks.

If Russia knew this was going to happen, they should have preemptively secured these changes with China. I suspect the den thinks were much harsher than they anticipated. One reason is that the west wants to hit Russia so hard that they overthrow Putin and the other reason is to scare China from trying to reunify with Taiwan. ‘Kill the chicken to scare the monkey’ so to speak?

 

[gelgoog]

Guys, please stick to the topic.

But that's only the worst case. France only has ~200 hundred kT level weapons that haven't been tested frequently. Russia has 5000+ warheads and test launches missiles every year. If even 1 French SSBN is disabled by a Russian SSN or is unluckily in port at the time, France loses a huge part of its deterrent. France doesn't have MAD with Russia.
You can't blackmail Russia with nukes. It has less to lose and far more capability to inflict damage.

Actually the French tested their SLBMs just recently and they regularly do so.

Their latest SLBM, the M51, should be at least as modern as latest US Trident and probably more modern than Russian Bulava.
They do not have ground launched nuclear weapons. They do have air launched nuclear weapons like the ASMP-A.

The French have less nukes than either the US or Russia sure but enough to destroy the major Russian cities. Most of Russia's population lives West of the Urals and a large part of it lives in either Moscow or St. Petersburg. If you wonder why Russia has more commercial and trade links with Europe than China and why it took them time to change this that is the cause. Russia might as well be an ocean away from China.

I think this is part of the reason for Russia's expansion of the BAM railway and massive splurge on nuclear icebreakers to open Northeastern Passage navigation year around.

 

[windsclouds2030]

But lots of Asian banks are not willing to fund Russian purchases due to fear of secondary sanctions. How do they go around that? Especially when the US is trying to find excuses to sanction Chinese entities.

Don't ask now -- no one has the clear answer at this moment!

But just give it time and watch, in time you may see the solution -- or you may not see the news but you just learn the goods keep on moving,.. deals are done in the background with no public coverage

But if anyone is naïve enough to be convinced that the Empire's "death warrant threats" can stop the flows of goods between Russia and China... then all his stay at this board is just futile, he simply learns nothing all this long...

If one does believe all the pompous threats aired by its huge megaphones then there's no peer rival, no competition, just issue some decrees then all are becoming vassal states... even in the absence of the Empire's military outposts.

But, does one really maintain such "faith" ???

 

[windsclouds2030]

VIDEO OF SENATOR LINDSEY GRAHAM CALLING FOR VLADIMIR PUTIN’S ASSASSINATION

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499578752547934208

Here is an immediate example why amplifying Ukraine's rhetoric without checking is dangerous.

Ukraine pushed out 2.5 hours ago that Putin is shelling a nuclear power plant/radiation levels rising. Went viral. A US Senator all worked up calls for a country's leader assassination.

Zelensky: "Russian tanks R shooting at the nuclear blocks."

Hours later CNBC: "A fire broke out at a training facility at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant after Russian forces attacked the location"

"tanks shooting at nuclear blocks" ends up being a training facility?


This was another hyped up story by Ukraine to continue pushing the West into frenzied action against Putin without regard if those steps are prudent and/or if they will boomerang. Ukraine is fighting for survival so I don't blame them, but Journos/officials need to check facts!

Western markets flurished on their own right and by earning in investments from around the world because rule of law protected property rights no matter the politics/policy. But this has flown out the window in Canada 2 weeks ago and against Russians the last 7 days in the US/EU.

THREAD

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499582079310389250

 

[Topazchen]

What kind of charges would they face? Because I can’t think of any. Tho I wonder if they will be sent to a penal colony for a very long time.

Perhaps detention in a Russian Guantanamo bay in Siberia

 

[aahyan]

Those were the good times when an alcoholic and a sex maniac ruled the world.

 

[escobar]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499641463444946944

 

[gelgoog]

The Ukrainian government claimed that the An-225 in the airbase near Kiev had been destroyed. Then people showed live video that it had not. So the Ukrainian government bombed the airbase, which had been captured and held by the Russians, with phosphorous ammunition using long range artillery stationed inside Kiev.

The Ukrainians have run a racket around nuclear cleanup of Chernobyl for decades already. The EU has spent billions on the place including making a huge sarcophagus which many nuclear experts said was kind of over the top. The Ukrainian government also hinted even years back that Ukraine's nuclear power plants would explode and make an issue larger than Chernobyl in case of conflict with Russia. Some even said that because of this Ukraine already had nuclear weapons they could explode against Russia in case of attack. Oh hum. I am not sure they know how nuclear power plants are supposed to work.

These are all desperate actions which will take the Ukrainians nowhere. As for those talks about how the Russians will capture Kiev any day now, how there is a major Russian traffic jam on the north of Kiev. Well. I doubt the Russians will enter Kiev before Kharkiv falls. Right now they are just sieging Kiev. They will likely sweep the cities in the East and South first, then concentrate all their forces including the 20,000 Chechens to this attack on Kiev.

The big actions right now are the cleanup of Mariupol and Kharkiv. After that it will be the encirclement of Odessa and the closing of positions on the Eastern and Central pockets in a double envelopment.

 

[BlackWindMnt]

But lots of Asian banks are not willing to fund Russian purchases due to fear of secondary sanctions. How do they go around that? Especially when the US is trying to find excuses to sanction Chinese entities.

Maybe buy commodities contracts for yuan on a Chinese exchange, bypassing SWIFT you have plausible deniability because China is the middle man.