Chinese semiconductor industry

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krautmeister

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@krautmeister thanks bro for the info, never heard of HLMC until now, so China had three FABS, SMIC, HLMC and Hua hong and in the future Huawei with the help of Shanghai ICRD. Bro if the aim of slowing down Huawei do you think the US succeeded? I know based station especially 5G needed chips 14nm and below to able to operate efficiently?
HLMC (Huali Microelectronics) is partly owned by Huahong. Their best process shrink is down to 22nm and they have pushed back their planned 14nm FINFET process first from late 2019 when news first came out about it, then to end of 2020 when they last talked about it in 2019.

Concerning Huawei, it's very evident that the US successfully slowed them down "DRAMATICALLY". Huawei was on the verge of becoming the defacto 5G world provider in 2020 and definitely would have been if the US didn't strongarm its vassals into playing the national security card. Huawei was also on the verge of overtaking Samsung mobile at the end of 2019 and they actually did outsell Samsung in Q2 of 2020. They were able to accomplish this even though Huawei sales are essentially banned in America. Without American interference, Huawei would most likely be the #1 smartphone vendor in the world in 2020 and easily so in 2021. Huawei also had the Kirin 9000 SoC, the first 5nm mobile chip, the Ascend 910 chip, the Kunpeng 920 chip along with recognition as having the best price/performance for all their networking equipment. Things were roaring at Huawei at the end of 2019 even in the shadow of the Meng Wenzhou arrest and looming sanctions. Huawei was basically an unstoppable juggernaut in sales, finances, technology, R&D, amazing roadmap, IP leadership, envious growth, you name it.

Having said all that, imo, Huawei is in big trouble now. It had the foresight to stockpile crucial semiconductors throughout 2019-2020 which is now allowing them to survive with a total ban on those semiconductors they are prevented from buying. However, once their stockpile runs out, it is do or die. Die meaning they will not be able to sell a large percentage of their networking gear, let alone 5G equipment and smartphones. Alot of that gear doesn't need advanced processes and they can get away with 28nm, 45nm, 65nm. The problem is, China does not currently produce a fully domestic supply chain for any process node, let alone 28nm.

28nm will allow Huawei to continue doing business as usual for almost all their networking gear and 5G tech. 5G base stations operate more efficiently at <=14nm but they can get away with 28nm. However, their SoCs, AI, IOT stuff is dead on arrival unless they can get process nodes to at least 14nm. For smartphones, they absolutely need <=7nm or else the Huawei brand, which is currently associated with high quality, will be killed. They cannot simply rely on a superior camera and that's why I think Huawei will release Harmony OS with any smartphone since Harmony OS performance is speculated to be an order of magnitude faster than the latest Android.

Given the amazing news of 7nm FINFET dual patterning trials at the end of this year, Huawei will definitely do well. We just don't know if their smartphone division will be a shadow of what it was or if Harmony OS can actually allow it to shake the world, at least the world outside the China market, which I am sure will eat it up because of the China app ecosystem.
 
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ansy1968

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HLMC (Huali Microelectronics) is partly owned by Huahong. Their best process shrink is down to 22nm and they have pushed back their planned 14nm FINFET process first from late 2019 when news first came out about it, then to end of 2020 when they last talked about it in 2019.

Concerning Huawei, it's very evident that the US successfully slowed them down "DRAMATICALLY". Huawei was on the verge of becoming the defacto 5G world provider in 2020 and definitely would have been if the US didn't strongarm its vassals into playing the national security card. Huawei was also on the verge of overtaking Samsung mobile at the end of 2019 and they actually did outsell Samsung in Q2 of 2020. They were able to accomplish this even though Huawei sales are essentially banned in America. Without American interference, Huawei would most likely be the #1 smartphone vendor in the world in 2020 and easily so in 2021. Huawei also had the Kirin 9000 SoC, the first 5nm mobile chip, the Ascend 910 chip, the Kunpeng 920 chip along with recognition as having the best price/performance for all their networking equipment. Things were roaring at Huawei at the end of 2019 even in the shadow of the Meng Wenzhou arrest and looming sanctions. Huawei was basically an unstoppable juggernaut in sales, finances, technology, R&D, amazing roadmap, IP leadership, envious growth, you name it.

Having said all that, imo, Huawei is in big trouble now. It had the foresight to stockpile crucial semiconductors throughout 2019-2020 which is now allowing them to survive with a total ban on those semiconductors they are prevented from buying. However, once their stockpile runs out, it is do or die. Die meaning they will not be able to sell a large percentage of their networking gear, let alone 5G equipment and smartphones. Alot of that gear doesn't need advanced processes and they can get away with 28nm, 45nm, 65nm. The problem is, China does not currently produce a fully domestic supply chain for any process node, let alone 28nm.

28nm will allow Huawei to continue doing business as usual for almost all their networking gear and 5G tech. 5G base stations also operate more efficiently at <=14nm but they can get away with 28nm. However, their SoCs, AI, IOT stuff is dead on arrival unless they can get process nodes to at least 14nm. For smartphones, they absolutely need <=7nm or else the Huawei brand, which is currently associated with high quality, will be killed. They cannot simply rely on a superior camera and that's why I think Huawei will release Harmony OS with any smartphone since Harmony OS performance is speculated to be an order of magnitude faster than the latest Android.

Given the amazing news of 7nm FINFET dual patterning trials at the end of this year, Huawei will definitely do well. We just don't know if their smartphone division will be a shadow of what it was or if Harmony OS can actually allow it to shake the world, at least the world outside the China market, which I am sure will eat it up because of the China app ecosystem.
@krautmeister Thanks bro, great summary, I'm encouraged after being given a reality check a few days ago ;) , I think next year will be the critical year for Huawei, it will be the year were their stock of chips will run out. So their Shanghai FAB will be crucial for their survival, the report I read indicated their plan production of 20nm chips is due in 2022 and I hope SMIC domesticate 14nm line is also available by that time. So its a race against time and lets hope their plan succeeded
 

Arcgem

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HLMC (Huali Microelectronics) is partly owned by Huahong. Their best process shrink is down to 22nm and they have pushed back their planned 14nm FINFET process first from late 2019 when news first came out about it, then to end of 2020 when they last talked about it in 2019.

Concerning Huawei, it's very evident that the US successfully slowed them down "DRAMATICALLY". Huawei was on the verge of becoming the defacto 5G world provider in 2020 and definitely would have been if the US didn't strongarm its vassals into playing the national security card. Huawei was also on the verge of overtaking Samsung mobile at the end of 2019 and they actually did outsell Samsung in Q2 of 2020. They were able to accomplish this even though Huawei sales are essentially banned in America. Without American interference, Huawei would most likely be the #1 smartphone vendor in the world in 2020 and easily so in 2021. Huawei also had the Kirin 9000 SoC, the first 5nm mobile chip, the Ascend 910 chip, the Kunpeng 920 chip along with recognition as having the best price/performance for all their networking equipment. Things were roaring at Huawei at the end of 2019 even in the shadow of the Meng Wenzhou arrest and looming sanctions. Huawei was basically an unstoppable juggernaut in sales, finances, technology, R&D, amazing roadmap, IP leadership, envious growth, you name it.

Having said all that, imo, Huawei is in big trouble now. It had the foresight to stockpile crucial semiconductors throughout 2019-2020 which is now allowing them to survive with a total ban on those semiconductors they are prevented from buying. However, once their stockpile runs out, it is do or die. Die meaning they will not be able to sell a large percentage of their networking gear, let alone 5G equipment and smartphones. Alot of that gear doesn't need advanced processes and they can get away with 28nm, 45nm, 65nm. The problem is, China does not currently produce a fully domestic supply chain for any process node, let alone 28nm.

28nm will allow Huawei to continue doing business as usual for almost all their networking gear and 5G tech. 5G base stations operate more efficiently at <=14nm but they can get away with 28nm. However, their SoCs, AI, IOT stuff is dead on arrival unless they can get process nodes to at least 14nm. For smartphones, they absolutely need <=7nm or else the Huawei brand, which is currently associated with high quality, will be killed. They cannot simply rely on a superior camera and that's why I think Huawei will release Harmony OS with any smartphone since Harmony OS performance is speculated to be an order of magnitude faster than the latest Android.

Given the amazing news of 7nm FINFET dual patterning trials at the end of this year, Huawei will definitely do well. We just don't know if their smartphone division will be a shadow of what it was or if Harmony OS can actually allow it to shake the world, at least the world outside the China market, which I am sure will eat it up because of the China app ecosystem.
Even if the bans didn't happen and Huawei were allowed to dominate the smartphone industry, Huawei would still be reliant on American supply chains, and arguably would be even more vulnerable to future sanctions. Reminds me of The Great Gatsby where the main character mourns the loss of his love, even after finding out she is nothing like how he initially thought she was. Crying over losing something that never really existed.

I think 2020 was actually the "best" time for a tech war to happen to China. Not too early, when China had much less experience with semiconductor technology. Not too late, when the industry would have already completely settled into the American-led supply chain.
 

ansy1968

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Registered Member
According to Havok, 28nm immersion duv machine can do double patterning, will participate in 16nm domestic equipment trial production line, and will be used in big production line this year end.
@foofy Sir is this related to your previous post regarding ICRD?

Havok:
SMEE 60nm dry double-stage lithography machine was verified at ICRD. Domestic large silicon wafers, photoresist, etc. are also there to verify with the lithography machine. ICRD has replaced imported equipment on the 16nm and below process verification line with the exception of immersion lithography machines with domestic equipment. This line has a production capacity of about 5,000 wafers/year and is currently being test and verification.

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第3页,东方晶源电子束晶圆检测装备研发生产基地项目正式签约落地-IT与通讯技术-≡ 超级百科与探索区≡-。创于2002年的超级大本营军事论坛,提供国防教育、爱国主义科普、军事装备、战争历史、时事热点、战略评论等全方位专业军事讨论平台。
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上微新干式双工件台光刻机在ICRD验证。国产大硅片、光刻胶等也一起在那里配合光刻机验证。ICRD已经把16nm及以下工艺验证线上除浸没光刻机外的其他一些进口设备全换成了国产设备,这条线产能约5000片/年,目前正在调试。

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horse

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@krautmeister Thanks bro, great summary, I'm encouraged after being given a reality check a few days ago ;) , I think next year will be the critical year for Huawei, it will be the year were their stock of chips will run out. So their Shanghai FAB will be crucial for their survival, the report I read indicated their plan production of 20nm chips is due in 2022 and I hope SMIC domesticate 14nm line is also available by that time. So its a race against time and lets hope their plan succeeded
Huawei will never run out of chips from their stockpile for 5G base stations or even limited amounts of cell phone production.

Before the embargoes, Huawei was selling 50 million phones per quarter.

The 5G base station the top of the line one requires two 7nm chips, and 2 to 3 million base stations would be enough to cover China. That means 10 million 7nm chips is more than enough for China 5G and could be enough for the world before it runs out. If there are 20 million 7nm chips in the stock pile solely for 5G base stations, then that is enough to build the standalone 5G network twice to three times over.

Huawei was selling 50 million phones per quarter before the embargoes, and they started their stockpiling preparations when ZTE was sanctioned.

Obviously they will not confirm this, but no way they will run out.

:)
 

krautmeister

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Huawei will never run out of chips from their stockpile for 5G base stations or even limited amounts of cell phone production.

Before the embargoes, Huawei was selling 50 million phones per quarter.

The 5G base station the top of the line one requires two 7nm chips, and 2 to 3 million base stations would be enough to cover China. That means 10 million 7nm chips is more than enough for China 5G and could be enough for the world before it runs out. If there are 20 million 7nm chips in the stock pile solely for 5G base stations, then that is enough to build the standalone 5G network twice to three times over.
There were reports suggesting Huawei would run out of chips for their 5G base stations sometime after 2021. This is based on data compiled from the major fabs of various semiconductors shipped to China such as HiSilicon's Tiangang 5G chip. Basically, they checked how many Tiangang 5G chipsets were produced by TSMC and it was over 2 million production run. The Tiangang 5G chip was introduced in 2019.

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Concerning smartphones, it's self evident that Huawei is going to be out of SoCs because they cannot fab their latest Kirin chips anywhere. Their latest Kirin 9000 SoC can't be fabbed at all and their prior generation Kirin 990 was introduced in the 2nd half of 2019. If Huawei can't introduce newer processors to compete against the likes of Qualcomm, Exynos and MediaTek, they would eventually be killed off.
 
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Oldschool

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There were reports suggesting Huawei would run out of chips for their 5G base stations sometime after 2021. This is based on data compiled from the major fabs of various semiconductors shipped to China such as HiSilicon's Tiangang 5G chip. Basically, they checked how many Tiangang 5G chipsets were produced by TSMC and it was over 2 million production run. The Tiangang 5G chip was introduced in 2019.

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Concerning smartphones, it's self evident that Huawei is going to be out of SoCs because they cannot fab their latest Kirin chips anywhere. Their latest Kirin 9000 SoC can't be fabbed at all and their prior generation Kirin 990 was introduced in the 2nd half of 2019. If Huawei can't introduce newer processors to compete against the likes of Qualcomm, Exynos and MediaTek, they would eventually be killed off.
Buying mediatek and unisoc chips to make Huawei phones so Harmony OS can spread and help its revenue.

MediaTek confirms that its because its Dimensity chipsets are getting a good chunk of the market share as 5G is emerging. This is not the first time Huawei is working with MediaTek but it's definitely going to be the first time to see higher-end and mid-range Huawei phones with SoCs from the Taiwanese manufacturer.Nov 3, 2020
 
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Nutrient

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EDA software isn't as easy you as you're making it out to be. There are only somewhere around 1500 EDA programmers in China and around 300 of them work for China based EDA companies with the rest working for global EDA providers. Synopsis alone has over 5000 EDA programmers worldwide. It doesn't matter how many Mechanical/Electronic engineers/programmers there are in China if the EDA niche is tiny.

If the EDA nich is so small, how can Synopsys support 5000 programmers?

Besides, an EDA tool doesn't need all the features right away. If it only does the most important things, that will be good enough for now. The revenue from doing these jobs will fund development of the remaining non-essential features.
 
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