Chinese Economics Thread

[Phead128]

Quick question here.
Lot of folks on reddit predicts that Chinese economy will peak out in 2030 and will start to wane after. How true is that assertion? Aside from automation, how to rectify that issue?

You know people on reddit say China will be "grow old before grow rich" due to Aging/One Child Policy, therefore stuck in "middle income trap"

I bet you $10,000 had China did nothing (no One Child Policy), then reddit would be saying China will be stuck in "low income trap" due to 1.9 billion population today (Overpopulation).

So either China does nothing and succumbs to overpopulation, or does something (omg, aging). Ignoring the fact that One Child Policy was relaxed...

They will ALWAYS find ways to diminish China's rise.

 

[localizer]

You know people on reddit say China will be "grow old before grow rich" due to Aging/One Child Policy, therefore stuck in "middle income trap"

I bet you $10,000 had China did nothing (no One Child Policy), then reddit would be saying China will be stuck in "low income trap" due to 1.9 billion population today (Overpopulation).

So either China does nothing and succumbs to overpopulation, or does something (omg, aging). Ignoring the fact that One Child Policy was relaxed...

They will ALWAYS find ways to diminish China's rise.

The only thing that can slow China down is bad government policies. China still have 50% rural population to make up for the low skilled labor needed.

China will never need labor import.

 

[Gatekeeper]

Great analysis from Asia Times. Now I understand 5G and USA unfair trade practices more than I did before. In particular US use of national security is against WTO rules, and US subsequent surpressing of enforcement by WTO by refusing to agreed to new nomination to the dispute settlement tribunals.

Asia Times

Why 5G is first stage of US-China tech war

It is not game over for Huawei, as many tech analysts are concluding prematurely

By PRABIR PURKAYASTHAAUGUST 13, 2020

Huawei has been relentlessly targeted by US sanctions, but still has cards to play. Photo: AFP.

The United States’ tech war on China continues, banning Chinese equipment from its network, and asking its Five Eyes partners and NATO allies to follow suit. It is a market- and technology-denial regime that seeks to win back manufacturing that the US and European countries have lost to China.

Rest of the article:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[emblem21]

You know people on reddit say China will be "grow old before grow rich" due to Aging/One Child Policy, therefore stuck in "middle income trap"

I bet you $10,000 had China did nothing (no One Child Policy), then reddit would be saying China will be stuck in "low income trap" due to 1.9 billion population today (Overpopulation).

So either China does nothing and succumbs to overpopulation, or does something (omg, aging). Ignoring the fact that One Child Policy was relaxed...

They will ALWAYS find ways to diminish China's rise.

Hence why the day that the world super power not only collapses but loses there super power status in such a manner that causes enough suffering that those reddit guys would feel it. Then lets see if those people will be able to justify why on earth there light/beckon of hope has fallen so badly. This day isn't far away and the increase amount of these articles indicate not only ignorance to there own failings but more importantly a huge lack of desire into improving their situation. Hence, let them spew crap on reddit, sooner or later, they will regret it

 

[Gatekeeper]

You know people on reddit say China will be "grow old before grow rich" due to Aging/One Child Policy, therefore stuck in "middle income trap"

I bet you $10,000 had China did nothing (no One Child Policy), then reddit would be saying China will be stuck in "low income trap" due to 1.9 billion population today (Overpopulation).

So either China does nothing and succumbs to overpopulation, or does something (omg, aging). Ignoring the fact that One Child Policy was relaxed...

They will ALWAYS find ways to diminish China's rise.

This China getting old before rich is loads of bull. Yes, China is aging. But it doesn't necessary equate to not getting rich! It may means growth as a total national income is slower and smaller than would have been if China is not aging.

But it'll also means per capita is richer quicker as more is shared out by less. Also this 'middle income trap'. A term coined in the 70s I think for Latin America and middle eastern countries. But the circumstance of these countries are very different. Non of these countries have ever achieved world number 1 trading nation status. No. 1 in manufacturing. Largest car market in the world. Hell, just largest and most attractive market in the world. Period.

Also, during the economists writing about 'middle income trap'. There have been examples of economies breaking through this trap! Most notably, south Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore!

Indeed, China is on the verge of breaking through herself, the defination by world bank as middle income country is around US$11,000. China is around US$10,000 at the moment. So it won't be long!

 

[emblem21]

This China getting old before rich is loads of bull. Yes, China is aging. But it doesn't necessary equate to not getting rich! It may means growth as a total national income is slower and smaller than would have been if China is not aging.

But it'll also means per capita is richer quicker as more is shared out by less. Also this 'middle income trap'. A term coined in the 70s I think for Latin America and middle eastern countries. But the circumstance of these countries are very different. Non of these countries have ever achieved world number 1 trading nation status. No. 1 in manufacturing. Largest car market in the world. Hell, just largest and most attractive market in the world. Period.

Also, during the economists writing about 'middle income trap'. There have been examples of economies breaking through this trap! Most notably, south Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore!

Indeed, China is on the verge of breaking through herself, the defination by world bank as middle income country is around US$11,000. China is around US$10,000 at the moment. So it won't be long!

I have heard a bit how the USA has a younger population in general and thus in that respect, they should be better equipped for the future compared to a aging China as they say. But one hilarious thing they fail to add to that is that one is that not many of these younger generations would find it in themselves to do those hard manufacturing jobs for low pay even if they did come back to the USA and another is that the majority of the nation isn't capable of doing those highly skilled jobs and by preventing anyone from the Asian world from immigrating to the USA, they have locked themselves out of that option. Hence in the short term to long term, they will have little avenue into going back into manufacturing like they have harped on about for so long

 

[localizer]

Glad China didn't turn into this.

 

[emblem21]

View attachment 62575

Glad China didn't turn into this.

Dear Christ, where in Gods name is that, is that India or something. That is terrible planning, a complete lack of desire to improve on what is there.

 

[localizer]

Dear Christ, where in Gods name is that, is that India or something. That is terrible planning, a complete lack of desire to improve on what is there.

Yep, the contrast between skyscrapers and slums really shows what happens if you adopt policies the West tells you to adopt.


The West knows that democracy destroys underdeveloped societies, that way they can have more slaves to exploit.

 

[BMEWS]

View attachment 62575

Glad China didn't turn into this.

Superpower 2020