Trade War with China

[localizer]

I think the biggest gain from the CCP's view out of all of this is snapping the Chinese population out of the idea that "Western/white" is best. The US establishment was so close to winning over the Wesetern educated young Chinese and the next generation of Chinese leaders, (probably why Xi became so hardline). Then Trump + hawks decides to undo 40 decades of effort.

If Trump and gang + allies decided to target the Chinese elite instead and continue with the human rights rhetoric then the west would win eventually. Now the west has to figure out how to deal with a billion zealots.

 

[AndrewS]

I think the biggest gain from the CCP's view out of all of this is snapping the Chinese population out of the idea that "Western/white" is best. The US establishment was so close to winning over the Wesetern educated young Chinese and the next generation of Chinese leaders, (probably why Xi became so hardline). Then Trump + hawks decides to undo 40 decades of effort.

If Trump and gang + allies decided to target the Chinese elite instead and continue with the human rights rhetoric then the west would win eventually. Now the west has to figure out how to deal with a billion zealots.

The Western educated young (rich) Chinese studying in the West actually end up with a more nuanced view of the USA. See below

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But yes, the general population is definitely souring on the US and Trump.

 

[manqiangrexue]

If Trump and gang + allies decided to target the Chinese elite instead and continue with the human rights rhetoric then the west would win eventually.

Win what? Chinese opinion of Western products was highest when China was most backwards. In the 80's to 90's, most worshiped American/European quality without even understanding what the product was. But even through Clinton, Bush, Obama, all of whom did what you said, Chinese realized more and more that they were giving undue credit. At no time was the trend going in reverse with the Chinese tilting more and more towards Western ideas/products. And I have almost never met a Chinese person who believed the Western line on "freedom" or "human rights" because it simply doesn't make sense. The West was never going to win over China simply because China was getting stronger and the stronger you are the prouder you become of your identity. Trump only fast-forwarded the decline.

 

[localizer]

Now, I'm not a rich Chinese, but I wonder do rich Chinese and their children have loyalty to their country (ex. Liu Changming and kin)? I would imagine that rich Chinese can go anywhere and fend off discrimination better than the Chinese who got out through education. They'd rather send the money all back to the West and go full Guo Wengui than keep it in China. It's the average Chinese immigrant with family back home who has the most to lose.

Overall we see increased capital flight due to increased CCP encroachment on private sectors, I have so many stories of this. The West is helping more in this regard with the new wave of sinophobia than Xi tbh. If he didn't clamp down on it, even upper middle class would try to send their children and wealth out of the country.

 

[PiSigma]

Now, I'm not a rich Chinese, but I wonder do rich Chinese and their children have loyalty to their country (ex. Liu Changming and kin)? I would imagine that rich Chinese can go anywhere and fend off discrimination better than the Chinese who got out through education. They'd rather send the money all back to the West and go full Guo Wengui than keep it in China. It's the average Chinese immigrant with family back home who has the most to lose.

Overall we see increased capital flight due to increased CCP encroachment on private sectors, I have so many stories of this. The West is helping more in this regard with the new wave of sinophobia than Xi tbh. If he didn't clamp down on it, even upper middle class would try to send their children and wealth out of the country.

There actually is a lot less money being send out of the country even couple years ago than people believe. The billionairs all know how they made their money in China and knows not to make it all vanish over night by pissing off Xi

 

[manqiangrexue]

Now, I'm not a rich Chinese, but I wonder do rich Chinese and their children have loyalty to their country (ex. Liu Changming and kin)? I would imagine that rich Chinese can go anywhere and fend off discrimination better than the Chinese who got out through education. They'd rather send the money all back to the West and go full Guo Wengui than keep it in China. It's the average Chinese immigrant with family back home who has the most to lose.

Are you still in the spirit of imagination or are you saying that this is the truth? Just because Guo Wengui is famous doesn't mean that he's representative. The Chinese that have done something wrong and cannot survive in China, and the Chinese who have nothing to offer typically leave China because China is not a friendly place for either kind of person. But the Chinese who can build their own business empire and the Chinese who have technology and knowledge to offer, they usually stay in China because 1. China welcomes them by providing them with advantages and 2. to those who can have everything, the one thing left to fight for is pride.

There is no escape from what you are no matter where you run to, no escape from society (who know what you) and no escape from self (and one's final ultimate yearning for pride). In the end, the only answer to dominating life is to raise one's country to the top and proudly be a part of it.

Overall we see increased capital flight due to increased CCP encroachment on private sectors, I have so many stories of this. The West is helping more in this regard with the new wave of sinophobia than Xi tbh. If he didn't clamp down on it, even upper middle class would try to send their children and wealth out of the country.

You see more capital flight because there's so much more capital. A rich person spends more money that a poor person; that's not evidence that he's worse at financial management. Foreign education is not a sign of disrespect to your nation; it is a sign that there is widespread understanding that knowledge is the key to success and a China that commands knowledge from all over the world is a China better poised to stand atop the rest of the world. Wealth... honestly, I assume you mean buying houses in the US. They're really so cheap and nice here; Chinese people can't refuse just like even American patriots can't refuse buying Chinese high quality products for cheap prices.

But houses (investments) and all, from what I see, the Chinese who are masters of technology and knowledge plan to return to China and those who have nothing much to offer plan to stay in the US. I attribute this trend mostly to the fact that the gap in lifestyle between the highly accomplished and the common person is much higher in China than it is in the US, making it much better to be a layman in the US but much better to be a maestro in China.

 

[localizer]

I guess I agree with you mostly. Thought I just wished that the economy was more free for more diverse investments and industries. Luckily my family is in tech and China is supportive . We are Chinese no matter where we go.

 

[manqiangrexue]

I guess I agree with you mostly. Thought I just wished that the economy was more free for more diverse investments and industries. Luckily my family is in tech and China is supportive . We are Chinese no matter where we go.

I understand what you are talking about and the things that you see can often be discouraging but remember, what you see is comprised mostly of common people while the ones who make a difference are the rare heroes. I have seen many Chinese families from my parents' generation come to the US with 2 ragged suitcases, a US green-card being their hearts' sole desire. Some worked hard and fought for decades before they rose to the top of their fields; others scrounged for money and collected petty wealth like an obsession. In the end, the former wanted nothing more than to be proud and to bring their fruits to the country of their blood while the latter persisted in their goblin-like rat race. This is because the best people of the group always climb and climb until they reach the end and when all tasks are completed and challenges defeated, the final battle is always self, to selflessly honor one's own country. Those who die without confronting the last fight lay dead in a mass grave.

 

[AssassinsMace]

When Trump makes tariff threats that's only a tactic to scare China into making a deal favorable to the US. That doesn't mean Trump is bluffing on his threats. He's countering the media saying he's softened his stance since they're portraying him as being desperate.

 

[hkbc]

Here's a thought.

a) the US cuts off Huawei
b) Huawei is better / faster at producing 5G products when compared to the foreign competition (Nokia, Ericsson, etc)
c) Chinese carriers can deploy 5G products faster than the USA

That means China will likely be first in deploying and using cheap 5G networks, compared with the USA

So Chinese companies will be first to build new commercial business models, and will be doing this in the world's largest telecoms, automobile and retail market.
Think self-driving cars, VR, AR, telemedicine, Internet of things, retail etc

Then these Chinese companies will look to expand in the rest of the world. But their competitors in US will be less developed and smaller than the Chinese companies.

So whilst Huawei loses out on the initial equipment supply, it means other Chinese companies will have a competitive advantage in the industries actually using 5G.

And the value of these downstream industries is way greater than the value of Huawei supplying the 5G infrastructure.

---

So in summary, the US Huawei 5G network bans means:

a) a more secure network for them
b) it will cost more
c) it will be slower to build
d) Chinese companies have a competitive advantage in technology, scale and business models using 5G. That means they can expand to the rest of the world first (including the US)

So from the Chinese perspective, should China really complain about the USA shooting itself in the foot by banning Huawei?

The same logic applies to any rich hi-tech country than wants to ban Huawei. Think Japan, Korea, Australia. But not New Zealand which doesn't have a tech industry

The post war American trade playbook is based on the fact that the US market is the largest in the world and political control through limiting or threat of limiting access to that market as an instrument has prevailed against "upstarts and challengers" e.g. Japan in the '80s. The US is not use to playing the game on a more even footing i.e. against a competitor whose market is as big if not bigger and whose denial of access to its market has just as great if not greater impact to corporate health. I don't think they've moved with the times, besides what you are describing has already come to pass, the 'Internet with Chinese Characteristics' is already a more vibrant and developed place than their western analogues.

When the "do no evil" company is trying to get back into China with a censored version of their search engine and GM shutters US factories and opens Chinese ones because its market in China is bigger than it's so called domestic market the writing is pretty much on the wall. Its just the bunch of white old men were waiting for the telephone to ring with the news and didn't get the WeChat message!