South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

[Blackstone]

Chinese Foreign Ministry accused US of meddling in Philippine's SCS law suit, by saying China is obligated to abide by ICJ decision. My only problem with this specific US declaration is 'what then?' I mean China said it wouldn't abide by ICJ decisions, but US says it must. If China backs down, it loses face to its 1.3 billion people, and if China doesn't back down, and US decline to start WWIII for the Philippines, then US loses credibility on the world stage (again). When it's all said and done, Washington probably should have stayed out of that mess.

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China's Foreign Ministry said on Friday the United States was trying to influence a South

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Sea arbitration case filed by the Philippines after a senior U.S. official said China would be obligated to abide by the tribunal's decision.

China has for years insisted that disputes with rival claimants to the South China Sea be handled bilaterally.

But this month, its claims came under international legal scrutiny for the first time when the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague began hearing a suit the Philippines filed in 2013.

China has refused to take part in the case.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel told a conference in Washington this week that as both Beijing and Manila are signatories to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, legally they have to abide by the tribunal's decision.

China issued a position paper in December arguing the dispute was not covered by the treaty because it was ultimately a matter of sovereignty, not exploitation rights, and the Foreign Ministry said it stood by that.

"Attempting to push forward the arbitration unilaterally initiated by the Philippines, the U.S. side just acts like an 'arbiter outside the tribunal', designating the direction for the arbitral tribunal established at the request of the Philippines," it said.

"This is inconsistent with the position the U.S. side claims to uphold on issues concerning the South China Sea disputes," the ministry added, calling on Washington to live up to its promises and not take sides.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea, believed to be rich in energy deposits, where about $5 trillion in ship-borne goods pass every year. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan also have conflicting claims.

China has become increasingly assertive in the South China Sea with rapid reclamation around reefs in the Spratly archipelago in particular sparking concern, both in the region and in the United States.

 

[shen]

Looks like the next Philippines President will tack away from confrontation with China. Not sure if it's too little too late, because Beijing's royally pissed at Manila, and Philippines need China a lot more than the other way around. The article is more than 10k characters, but it's worth the read.

I wouldn't say it is too late. As discussed earlier in the thread, the previous Filipino administration was cooperative as well. Only the present administration choose to be confrontational.

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[Blackstone]

I wouldn't say it is too late. As discussed earlier in the thread, the previous Filipino administration was cooperative as well. Only the present administration choose to be confrontational.

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Yes, but there's so much bad blood between current Filipino administration and Beijing, the next President of Philippines has his/her work cut out to rebuild relations.

 

[ahojunk]

Reclamation by Vietnam on Spratly Island.

 

[Brumby]

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China’s New Islands Are Clearly Military, U.S. Pacific Chief Says

 

[joshuatree]

Reclamation by Vietnam on Spratly Island.

So compared to a pic I posted a month ago, they've made quite a bit of progress. I guess this is what is meant by others pursuing diplomacy.

 

[Blackstone]

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Admiral Harris' bold talk is designed for public consumption, and reality may be 180 degrees apart from words. I say that because I can't think of any reasonable circumstance where US starts WWIII for Philippines over a few rocks in the SCS. The best outcome is Harris gets lots of press in Manila and Tokyo (to pacify the natives), but little press in China (inflame more Chinese nationalism), and the US (worry Americans over conflict with another nuclear power).

 

[Blackstone]

So compared to a pic I posted a month ago, they've made quite a bit of progress. I guess this is what is meant by others pursuing diplomacy.

Now that China has ended its dredging and island-manufacturing operations, it's a big mistake for Vietnam or anyone else to start/continue island building, because that gives cover for Beijing to come back with even bigger maritime civil engineering projects. Reality is it ends more on Beijing's terms than on Manila and Hanoi's.

 

[delft]

I have little doubt the choice is between not cooperating with China and getting little or cooperating and getting more.

 

[shen]

Admiral Harris' bold talk is designed for public consumption, and reality may be 180 degrees apart from words. I say that because I can't think of any reasonable circumstance where US starts WWIII for Philippines over a few rocks in the SCS. The best outcome is Harris gets lots of press in Manila and Tokyo (to pacify the natives), but little press in China (inflame more Chinese nationalism), and the US (worry Americans over conflict with another nuclear power).

Oh, it is getting coverage in China alright. First story of CCTV evening news. They had a retired PLAN admiral refute Harris's points one by one, and on Harris talking about targeting Chinese islands, he basically told Harris to come if he dares.
Really this is not a road we want to go down. As a serving officer, Admiral Harris should have more discipline than talking like this is public.