The War in the Ukraine

[tamsen_ikard]

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Clearly Russia has to do something dramatic. Their current soft touch approach on Ukraine is simply not working. Ukraine is steadily raising production and hitting Russia hard using drones. Soon more missiles will come online as well. This only gets worse for Russia over time.

They need to do something drastic if they don't want to slowly bleed to defeat.

Either attack Europe directly and establish deterrence against further arms supplies to Ukraine. Not gonna work cause Europe will go crazy and supply Ukraine even more and could even escalate by attacking Russia with missiles.

Use nukes on Ukraine, a much more safer option than attacking Europe and has more chances of success in terms of getting a Ukrainian surrender. But again, too many Ukrainian civillian deaths by using Nukes is probably not going to fly on the world stage.


Do proper mass mobilization of the economy and population for a total war. Increase production significantly and also raise a much bigger army. This is the only viable option they have to achieve victory, but it will be a huge risk for Putin. If the public gets fed up, that will be the end of Putin.

The chance of a Russian defeat is only increasing unless they take drastic steps.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Clearly Russia has to do something dramatic. Their current soft touch approach on Ukraine is simply not working. Ukraine is steadily raising production and hitting Russia hard using drones. Soon more missiles will come online as well. This only gets worse for Russia over time.

They need to do something drastic if they don't want to slowly bleed to defeat.

Either attack Europe directly and establish deterrence against further arms supplies to Ukraine. Not gonna work cause Europe will go crazy and supply Ukraine even more and could even escalate by attacking Russia with missiles.

Use nukes on Ukraine, a much more safer option than attacking Europe and has more chances of success in terms of getting a Ukrainian surrender. But again, too many Ukrainian civillian deaths by using Nukes is probably not going to fly on the world stage.


Do proper mass mobilization of the economy and population for a total war. Increase production significantly and also raise a much bigger army. This is the only viable option they have to achieve victory, but it will be a huge risk for Putin. If the public gets fed up, that will be the end of Putin.

The chance of a Russian defeat is only increasing unless they take drastic steps.

This is your "analysis" from Russia basically blowing up 50 things after Ukraine tricked it into blowing up its own refinery?

 

[_killuminati_]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2069523594237939836

 

[sutton999]

This is your "analysis" from Russia basically blowing up 50 things after Ukraine tricked it into blowing up its own refinery?

Just admit you are wrong.

Ukraine can severely damage any Russian key infrastructure with cheap long-distance drones ($100k each, hundreds each wave).

Ground-based radar networks were damaged first by smaller attack drones in one area. Then, larger drones swarm through that weak point.

Unless Putin gets an equivalent of the KJ-500 fleet, Russia is unable to manage this.

Remember China banned the export of these long-distance drones at the beginning of this war.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of Russian Krasnopol-M2 precision-guided missiles striking bunkers, UAV control centers, and temporary Ukrainian army deployment sites. The video was filmed by the 1st Krasnodar Division, 238th Guards Artillery Brigade, Russian Army. The Russian 2A65 Msta-B 152mm towed howitzer was used. The strikes took place in the Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka direction.

 

[Tam]

Warehouse in Pavlograd said to be storing UAVs, goes kaboom when hit by a Russian missile, likely Iskander. The extent of this explosion points to munitions blowing.

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Munitions scattered over the area after explosion.

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Russian flags being raised in the western part of Kupyansk in a surprise turnaround. Recently, the district south of Kupyansk, Kurilovka, has fallen mostly in Russian control.

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More and more areas in Konstantinovka have fallen to the Russians. It's fate is already much a moot point, and operations are mostly clean and mop up.

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Peter Magyar goes Orban the Sequel as Hungary blocks Moldova and Ukraine EU membership bids.

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[Nilou]

Blowing up the bridges across the Dneiper would be a start and would show russian resolve and ability to escalate. That would heavily complicate logistics for all ukrainian forces and civilian populations across the river, and if traffic across the river can be severely limited, becomes a seige of the entire eastern half of the country.

 

[Totoro]

Might work if Russia had 24/7 or even 1 hour per 12 hrs surveillance of entire dnieper. But it doesn't. Deep persitant recon is still one of biggest issues Russia has. Allowing for much of Ukrainian activities to keep going on, from various military production, to Ukrainian air force still operating, and others. There would be too many makeshift pontoons popping up over the river, operating for too long before hit, for the idea to work properly. Sure, overall volume of supplies might drop by xx percent, but likely not enough. Otherwise it would have been tried already.

 

[KODAMA]

Some here believe that Russia needs to escalate the situation in order to win the war. I would not claim that this is wrong, it may well be true. Neither I nor anyone else on this forum possesses all the information needed to draw a well founded conclusion. We can only observe events and form our own judgments. From the Ukrainian perspective, the attacks on Russian oil infrastructure appear spectacular, whereas from the Russian side, they seem catastrophic. Yet, isn't that precisely the aim of Ukrainian propaganda? What is the actual military value of these strikes? Will they impair Russian oil production enough to impact the economy or logistics? However, one must not forget that these attacks took place right during the EU summit (attended by Zelensky) and a meeting at NATO headquarters. He needed to present something convincing to his allies to demonstrate that Ukraine can deal Russia a severe blow and ideally win this war. In short: it was a staged move designed to mobilize new aid funds.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

Clearly Russia has to do something dramatic. Their current soft touch approach on Ukraine is simply not working. Ukraine is steadily raising production and hitting Russia hard using drones. Soon more missiles will come online as well. This only gets worse for Russia over time.

They need to do something drastic if they don't want to slowly bleed to defeat.

Either attack Europe directly and establish deterrence against further arms supplies to Ukraine. Not gonna work cause Europe will go crazy and supply Ukraine even more and could even escalate by attacking Russia with missiles.

Use nukes on Ukraine, a much more safer option than attacking Europe and has more chances of success in terms of getting a Ukrainian surrender. But again, too many Ukrainian civillian deaths by using Nukes is probably not going to fly on the world stage.


Do proper mass mobilization of the economy and population for a total war. Increase production significantly and also raise a much bigger army. This is the only viable option they have to achieve victory, but it will be a huge risk for Putin. If the public gets fed up, that will be the end of Putin.

The chance of a Russian defeat is only increasing unless they take drastic steps.

The bankers target is to achive exactly that you described.

Russia and china target is to keep high and improving level of living and stability.

Due to the above the pdfs sending say 500 drones from Ukraine , if the russians achieving 99% of succes, still five will impact 30 000 cubic meters of oil tanks each .

That will destroy few hours of Russia oil export, and create issue for the rest of the world.
Doesn't affect the capability of the refinery, or anything.

But, they hope that by covering Moskow sky with black smoke there will be disatisfaction, and maybe the NGOs and CIA can get few more agent , fuel for riots and terror actions, or similar.

It is next to impossible to avoid mathematicall, if Ukraine accumulate for weeks drones they can damage few oil storage tanks. That is just basic math .

That have 0 economical or military effect.

But the target is to make few russian whom willing to accept payment and start terror actions.