PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

FriedButter

FriedButter

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bsdnf said:
"Historically, cargo ships have often traveled into war zones, even knowing that other commercial ships have been sunk. Shippers make money by carrying cargo, and they do not wish to stop unless forced to."

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Besides insurance, there is a unique factor that only comes in play for the Pacific unlike the Middle East. The US can only fight China by turning it into a regional conflict by dragging South Korea, Japan, and the philippines.

And 95% of global ship building is within the conflict zone plus existing backlogs into the early 2030s. There is no replacements for commercial ship losses. Very few will risk shipping cargo worth millions to risk losing the ability to ship cargo for the next decade.
 
00CuriousObserver

00CuriousObserver

Senior Member
Registered Member
CCG patrolling in the waters east of Taiwan. I’m sure people here understand the significance of this area.

The CCG has patrolled around Taiwan before, but iirc they have never gone this far east. And to do it in such an announced way is significant.

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A

AndrewS

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GZDRefugee said:
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Hey, lookie here! Someone's been reading our forum, methinks.

The most interesting sections are "A New Operational Concept: Blockade by Fire" and "Learning from Damage to World War II Ports."

Though I would challenge the report's insistence on modelling only SRBM fires on ports when the PLA already demonstrated PHL-16 use during Strait Thunder 2025-A. We also know the PLA commissioned 1 MILLION Shahed-style drones from Poly Technologies to be delivered by this year.
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Can you provide a source for the order of 1 million Shaheeds? That implies storage in 200K ready-to-launch containers.

It just seems way too many, as I think even 300K would be way enough, and would last for 2 months until production ramps up

And that assumes China doesn't use large numbers of low-cost air-dropped guide bombs, given that the vast majority of targets are next to a coastline.
 
GZDRefugee

GZDRefugee

Senior Member
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
Can you provide a source for the order of 1 million Shaheeds? That implies storage in 200K ready-to-launch containers.

It just seems way too many, as I think even 300K would be way enough, and would last for 2 months until production ramps up

And that assumes China doesn't use large numbers of low-cost air-dropped guide bombs, given that the vast majority of targets are next to a coastline.
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One million red drones of socialism.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

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GZDRefugee said:
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One million red drones of socialism.
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Order from China: 1 million kamikaze drones in December 2024 => delivery 2026
Order from USA: 2 dozen patriot missiles => delivery in 3 years, 6 years, delayed but coming, I don't know if or when you'll get them but you're not getting a refund and you'd better not stop paying the installments either.
 
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JohnnyD

Junior Member
Registered Member
philippines dont even have a Navy to do anything to China in the south China sea only old ass ship from the cold war era usa gave them lol
 
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