China's Space Program Thread II

[Tomboy]

?

Yes, of course they're speculative and not based off any "official" art lol.

I assumed it was obvious that the 15-16m fairing variant is trying to visualize what such a rocket could look like, based on the blueprints of the production facility in the last day or so that depicted a 15-16m payload fairing with an additional third stage...



I.e.: they're not trying to depict CZ-9 or CZ-9B, but rather a "CZ-9 with 15-16m fairing +/- third stage" variant which is not something that we've had any official art or concept drawings of.
I'm not sure why that is something which needs to be specified...

Well not really, the latter two are trying to pass some kind of super stretched CZ-9 as something that could even be remotely expected. It's not just "CZ-9 with 15-16m fairing +/- third stage" but CZ-9 with a hypothetical stretched booster, a hypothetical stretched second stage, a hypothetical new third stage and 15-16m fairing.

IMO, only the first image depicts something that is useful and somewhat representative of a future CZ-9 with large fairing.

 

[Blitzo]

Well no, the latter two are trying to pass some kind of super stretched CZ-9 as something that could even be remotely expected. It's not just "CZ-9 with 15-16m fairing +/- third stage" but CZ-9 with a hypothetical stretched booster, a hypothetical stretched second stage, a hypothetical new third stage and 15-16m fairing.

Oh you're talking about the first stage length specifically.

I have no particular position on that (considering CZ-9 itself is still somewhat fluid, I think the more notable aspect is the third stage and the 15-16m fairing), nor am I fully sure how the original person who made the art reached the 185m total length as a possibility, though the pattern of recent art in the last day or so from the PRC side is deliberately showing a longer first stage and second stage than past CZ-9 art, so go figure..

 

[sunnymaxi]

There is one more evidence that CZ-9 (project) may be really start launching. Hainan government opens a bid today for 10.6m diameter cylinder section welding system.

as @Tomboy pointed out, Hainan government is deeply involved in this project and they have very ambitious planning if you see their 15th FYP regarding science/technolog , Tourism.

from raz_liu on twitter.

 

[Asug]

bottom view

 

[00CuriousObserver]

the timeline quoted by different CNSA/CATL members is early 2030's not 2030..

in April this year state council presented the 15th five year plan regarding space and commercial space industry.

in that press conference Wang Qiong itself presented 15th five year plan. he is the deputy chief designer of the Chang'e 6 mission,

In terms of launch vehicles, my country will develop and successfully launch the Long March 9 heavy-lift launch vehicle, significantly enhancing its ability to access space.

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apart from this, tender of LM9 assembly building issued and Hainan government also mentioned this. so the point is LM9 project actually kicked off this year. and it will be interesting to see how much time they will take and resolve bottlenecks.

His estimate is 32-35 for the CZ-9, and I think a more pessimistic assumption should be the default here, until proven otherwise.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2063088337133703168

 

[FKAMtS4kE]

His estimate is 32-35 for the CZ-9, and I think a more pessimistic assumption should be the default here, until proven otherwise.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2063088337133703168

Then what's supposed to happen with ILRS? There will be a big gap between the end of the Chang'e program and the start of ILRS if the CZ-9 is delayed until the mid 2030s.

 

[sunnymaxi]

Then what's supposed to happen with ILRS? There will be a big gap between the end of the Chang'e program and the start of ILRS if the CZ-9 is delayed until the mid 2030s.

we are still solid 9 years away from mid 2030's.

LM9 whole as a project kicked off this year. from land Acquisition to main assembly building tender has issued. yesterday Hainan government opens a bid today for 10.6m diameter cylinder section welding system. so it will be interesting to see how this project carry forward and technical bottleneck resolve.

from all CNSA/CATL members, they are talking about first flight of rocket in early 2030's. it could be even early as possible or further delay. but considering the maturity of industrial base we can expect fast pace program if no major delay happen.

 

[Nx4eu]

The planned ILRS modules are dependent on a super heavy launcher, so the CZ-9 has to exist, otherwise the entire future ILRS won't exist. And since the first ILRS missions are supposed to be launched in the early 2030s, that gives us an expected timeline for development.

If I may, using a more realistic 110m tall CZ-9 Base, this is how I would depict a 16m diameter fairing.

 

[TheRathalos]

Though I don't think that plot of land includes the launch pad, not really sure where they are going to put that, maybe with the rest of Commercial launch pads? Or maybe one on each side?

CZ-9 Launch pad seems to be notionally between the CZ-10 LC-301 and the HCSLS CZ-12/10B LC-2 according to exclusion zones from recent documents

However a HICAL employee was also quoted on TV for saying that future HCSLS pads could be adapted for 7m and 10m launchers, that could add possible pads to the south, in the areas of the "Phase 3" (pad 5-8)

His estimate is 32-35 for the CZ-9, and I think a more pessimistic assumption should be the default here, until proven otherwise.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2063088337133703168

Long Lehao did slip a 2032 in a presentation back in January (even if official statements in the past months still mention a 2030 target or "by the end of the 5 year plan", generally speaking, 2030 seems a very tight target given the planned construction milestones for the CZ-9 factory infrastructure at wenchang

Then what's supposed to happen with ILRS? There will be a big gap between the end of the Chang'e program and the start of ILRS if the CZ-9 is delayed until the mid 2030s.

The ILRS document from 2021 is a high level architecture plan, these rarely get made as written.
The relative openness of the contracting process of the Wenchang CZ-9 Rocket Factory alongside the rumors of it being funded by CASC and Wenchang/Hainan make it clear there is less PLA involvement in it than in other projects of the WSLS and Crewed Lunar Program (The CZ-10 launch site construction procress was between CMSA and the 63926th Unit of the PLA and entirely opaque, for example)
the 921 Office was famously skeptical of the expendable CZ-9 (hence the launcher development that led to CZ-10 to meet the late 2020s deadline) and it seems it is still the case with the reusable one. And with the CLEP being aligned closer to CMSA now it seems likely that initial parts of the ILRS (beyond CE7 and CE8) will be using proven CZ-5 and CZ-10 launchers.

 

[Nx4eu]

If I may, using a more realistic 110m tall CZ-9 Base, this is how I would depict a 16m diameter fairing.

I replied to the wrong person. Meant to tag @Blitzo