It’s completely irrational. Even if the war ends right now you can’t immediately replace all the oil producing assets destroyed during the war. Market is driven by speculators.
An Israeli source tells me about the ceasefire: We were surprised by Trump's decision. We received updates in the final moments when everything seemed finalized. We are committed to the ceasefire.
The two-week ceasefire, announced by US President Donald Trump last night (Wednesday), will also include Lebanon, senior security sources familiar with the details of the temporary ceasefire agreement reached between Iran and the United States told
On this issue, it was agreed, as mentioned, that the ceasefire would also apply to the Lebanese arena. In other words, when Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz, Israel and Hezbollah will secure their weapons. It is unclear whether there are any agreements regarding the lines of deployment of the Israeli forces, which are already inside Lebanon, and whether they will be required to organize themselves along a different line.
Lindsey Graham: As to an Iranian ten point proposal to end the war, I look forward to reviewing it at the appropriate time and its submission to Congress for a vote, like we did with the Obama JCPOA.
It’s not like the initial deployments the US did for this war was a secret to anyone. There isn’t a way for the US to re-mass forces without being detected well before they’re ready enough to re-initiate the fighting.Two weeks really isn't enough time for the US to strengthen itself. Its global stockpile of interceptors and stand-off weapons are low, so there isn't much left to replenish. And ground units are heavy, a single armored brigade is around 30K tonnes and can only realistically be shipped. Two weeks and it's still probably loading up at its home port, and you would need several dozen of them for any ground invasion.
And that assumes Iran (with Chinese and Russian help) wouldn't detect any build up and staging, and just may be Iran could finally convince itself to strike first.
History is moving much faster than we all expected.Never expected Suez moment at home to come so soon.