09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Blitzo]

I've long wondered what's the motivation behind US pretending China is operating 60% of SSN construction bays on the planet for 8 years just to build 2 SSNs

Because there are plenty of people in the establishment who assumes China's building 6 a year

There is probably a degree of hedging as well as a degree of interpreting what they have observed rather than making estimates which may end up being overestimates.

Nothing wrong with that tbh. There is a difference between theoretical peak procurement versus practical peak procurement.

 

[Lethe]

I've long wondered what's the motivation behind US pretending China is operating 60% of SSN construction bays on the planet for 8 years just to build 2 SSNs

Because there are plenty of people in the establishment who assumes China's building 6 a year

Submarine construction is a lengthy process. Even without the delays associated with certifying and testing new designs, and even without having to build-up the entire supply and personnel chain to meet theoretical build hall pipeline capacity, one would only now be expecting to see the fruits of that expanded capacity emerge, as indeed we are.

Here is a chart I prepared some months ago on Virginia-class construction timelines. 5.5 years is as low as they've achieved in the modern era, and that's excluding long-lead items like reactor components that predate official construction start times. Note that build time goes up as more orders are crammed into the system, not down. The fastest boats to delivery were those that arrived at the tail-end of the one-per-year cadence.

 

[Andrey_Materik]

The land prototype reactor of the 091 was decommissioned very late. Did it have the opportunity to test the reactor core of the 093 in late 1990s? I think 093B may a separately built land-based prototype?

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Spotted this object at the eastern drydock of Huludao on Copernicus, dated 28 March 2026.

The measured length of this object is ~125 meters, which certainly doesn't match the lengths of any known Chinese submarines today (the 093/A/B and 095 SSNs are ~110 meters long, whereas the 094/A/B SSBNs are ~135 meters long).

Does anyone know what this is?

 

[para80]

Looking at the latest image on Sentinel, the hull appears longer (I dont think they would switch hulls so quickly, but thats a guess). Which would imply an SSBN (including the possibility an in service 09IV). One issue with low res imagery is discoloration or artifacts leading to false measurements. I havent seen more detailed imagery yet, but maybe I will come across some better data in time.

 

[magmunta]

According to this paper, there are 9 type 094 subs. 2 of them are the basic versions, 5 of them are type 094A, and 2 094B. It also says 096 is under construction at Huludao, Bohai shipyard.

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[Neurosmith]

According to this paper, there are 9 type 094 subs. 2 of them are the basic versions, 5 of them are type 094A, and 2 094B. It also says 096 is under construction at Huludao, Bohai shipyard.

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Screenshots of the excerpts are posted here:



Some interesting claims made by the author:

Type 09VI:

• There is 1 boat under construction with 4 planned in total (personal opinion: four boats seems too low of a number for China's expanding nuclear deterrence).
• Each boat carries 24 SLBMs.
• Estimated displacement is 18000 tons submerged; this would be slightly smaller than but comparable to the Ohio.
• Estimated length is 165 m long; again, this would be slightly shorter than but comparable to the Ohio.

Type 09IV:

• There are nine boats in total: 2 x of the vanilla version and 7 x of the 09IVA/09IVB variants.

Type 09V:

• There are 3 boats under construction out of 8 planned.
• Each boat has 8 x tri-packed VLS modules (total of 24 missiles), which can carry the YJ-20.
• Each boat has 8 x torpedo tubes, capable of launching Yu-18 and Yu-19 torpedoes (unsure if typos or not).

Type 09IIIB:

• There are up to 10 boats of this subclass.
• Their VLS are able to launch YJ-18, YJ-19, YJ-20, and CJ-10 missiles.

Type 09III/A:

• There are 6 x 09IIIA boats and 1 x original 09III boat.

====

Some thoughts:

1. 4 x 09VI boats seem to be a very small number for a deterrent like that of China, which is rapidly expanding in both number and domain reach.
2. 8 x 09V boats also seem to be a very small number, especially accounting for the older 09III/A and SSKs that will have to be replaced.
3. Yu-18 and Yu-19 torpedos are new, assuming that they are not typos. I wonder if the author meant to write "YJ-18" and "YJ-19" instead.
4. The YJ-18 and YJ-19 are listed as weapons for the 09IIIB but surprisingly not for the 09V.

Lastly, do take this report with plenty of salt, as there are some parts of the report that doesn't quite add up:

1. The NATO reporting names of the 09VI/09V (Tang/Sui) are most definitely based on fan-given names from the 2010s era when speculation was rife about these boats.
2. The Yu-12 torpedo is listed as a weapon for all of the submarines, but we know that it is an air-dropped ASW torpedo rather than a heavyweight ASuW weapon carried by these submarines.
3. I do not see how the author could've estimated the length and/or displacement of boats like the 09VI.
4. The 24 x SLBM claim for the 09VI is also sus, as the trend is toward a smaller SLBM complement for modern SSBNs, plus it seems to be based on a very old model of a supposed 09VI with 24 tubes.

 

[Blitzo]

Lastly, do take this report with plenty of salt

Imo this is the only useful thing to apply/takeaway for the report.

There isn't a need to scrutinize these open source/non-classified reports too carefully.

They basically take things that we in the open/public PLA watching space know and then try to extrapolate out a bit based on their own estimates, often without being directly informed by any genuine raw contained intelligence.

 

[mack8]

Screenshots of the excerpts are posted here:
View attachment 174444
View attachment 174443

Some interesting claims made by the author:

Type 09VI:

• There is 1 boat under construction with 4 planned in total (personal opinion: four boats seems too low of a number for China's expanding nuclear deterrence).
• Each boat carries 24 SLBMs.
• Estimated displacement is 18000 tons submerged; this would be slightly smaller than but comparable to the Ohio.
• Estimated length is 165 m long; again, this would be slightly shorter than but comparable to the Ohio.

Type 09IV:

• There are nine boats in total: 2 x of the vanilla version and 7 x of the 09IVA/09IVB variants.

Type 09V:

• There are 3 boats under construction out of 8 planned.
• Each boat has 8 x tri-packed VLS modules (total of 24 missiles), which can carry the YJ-20.
• Each boat has 8 x torpedo tubes, capable of launching Yu-18 and Yu-19 torpedoes (unsure if typos or not).

Type 09IIIB:

• There are up to 10 boats of this subclass.
• Their VLS are able to launch YJ-18, YJ-19, YJ-20, and CJ-10 missiles.

Type 09III/A:

• There are 6 x 09IIIA boats and 1 x original 09III boat.

====

Some thoughts:

1. 4 x 09VI boats seem to be a very small number for a deterrent like that of China, which is rapidly expanding in both number and domain reach.
2. 8 x 09V boats also seem to be a very small number, especially accounting for the older 09III/A and SSKs that will have to be replaced.
3. Yu-18 and Yu-19 torpedos are new, assuming that they are not typos. I wonder if the author meant to write "YJ-18" and "YJ-19" instead.
4. The YJ-18 and YJ-19 are listed as weapons for the 09IIIB but surprisingly not for the 09V.

Lastly, do take this report with plenty of salt, as there are some parts of the report that doesn't quite add up:

1. The NATO reporting names of the 09VI/09V (Tang/Sui) are most definitely based on fan-given names from the 2010s era when speculation was rife about these boats.
2. The Yu-12 torpedo is listed as a weapon for all of the submarines, but we know that it is an air-dropped ASW torpedo rather than a heavyweight ASuW weapon carried by these submarines.
3. I do not see how the author could've estimated the length and/or displacement of boats like the 09VI.
4. The 24 x SLBM claim for the 09VI is also sus, as the trend is toward a smaller SLBM complement for modern SSBNs, plus it seems to be based on a very old model of a supposed 09VI with 24 tubes.

One interpretation could be that 4x 096 and 8x 095 might only be the first batches (maybe ordered or planned to be ordered in the current FYP, to 2030?), with subsequent batches (improved A versions?)to be likely ordered in the future.

 

[Dante80]

It's as good a guess as any, given the specifics at hand that we know from public sources.
Which means...it's probably not that good of a guess..

Having said that, no, him saying 4x 096 or 8x 095 doesn't mean that those are the final class numbers. Just an estimated fist batch/contract size of sorts.