2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[delfer]

Real lesson is actually even simpler: never hold back due to diplomacy. Don't ever worry about mutual defense treaties or any other nonsense, if you are powerful enough they will look for 1000 cope reasons to not jump in.

Iran struck multiple US treaty allies. Did they jump in? Did they form a coalition of the willing? Or were they too scared and called deescalation immediately?

Did US escalate? No, their escalation is ability constrained not willpower constrained. Did they increase sorties to hit Iran harder and punish Iran? No, because their capability to launch sorties was decreased.

Hit the nail on the head. This is a lesson Russia unfortunately still hasn't learned.

 

[AlexYe]

Obvious usual caveats apply

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030205442836881696

israel is def having more casualties this time than before thats for certain, some shelters have been DIRECTLY hit.
There is also that video of a group of first responders about to reach an unexploded ordinance but then it explodes, the guy filming it, his camera is all blinding white.

Iraniantv: Within 24 hours the final meeting of the Assembly of Experts to elect the next Supreme Leader will be held.

This can be a make or break moment for Iran, if they pick the softie liberal guy well....

Also Israel tried to bomb /assassinate the guy IRGC is pushing for to be picked, but it failed yesterday.

Iran's Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf:


Iran doing drone assassinations in dubai, marina tower.

 

[Cr4ckSh0t]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030254342251409501

looks like strikes on the rader sites are working

 

[neutralobserver]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030335284756226205

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030331849587974636

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030332851674091841

--

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030339244556689875

 

[AlexYe]

Boom...boom telaviv

I am sorry... HEZBOLLAH as these big rockets/missiles???
WTF??


A theory I have read is that Hezbollah first sends a volley of drones n rockets towards israel, it lights up the batteries, then iran later targets in a way to avoid the paths.

Another one is that Iran has upgraded their missiles with some sort of emissions-noise emitter and its making the defense system think they are more than one so its launches alooot of interceptors for just 2-3s

 

[bebops]

israel is def having more casualties this time than before thats for certain, some shelters have been DIRECTLY hit.
There is also that video of a group of first responders about to reach an unexploded ordinance but then it explodes, the guy filming it, his camera is all blinding white.

Iraniantv: Within 24 hours the final meeting of the Assembly of Experts to elect the next Supreme Leader will be held.

This can be a make or break moment for Iran, if they pick the softie liberal guy well....

Also Israel tried to bomb /assassinate the guy IRGC is pushing for to be picked, but it failed yesterday.

Iran's Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf:
View attachment 171016

Iran doing drone assassinations in dubai, marina tower.
View attachment 171017

Are these damages repairable or they need to demolish the entire building?

 

[neutralobserver]

Clarification by Iranian FM About Pezeshkian's statement:

President Pezeshkian's openness to de-escalation within our region—provided that our neighbors’ airspace, territory, and waters are not used to attack the Iranian People—was almost immediately killed by President Trump's misinterpretation of our capabilities, determination and intent. If Mr. Trump seeks escalation, it is precisely what our Powerful Armed Forces have long been prepared for, and what he will get. Responsibility for any intensification of Iran's exercise of self-defense will lie squarely with the U.S. Administration. Mr. Trump's week-long misadventure has already cost the U.S. military $100 Billion, in addition to the lives of young soldiers. When markets reopen, that cost will balloon and directly be transferred to ordinary Americans at pumping stations. Mr. Trump's own National Intelligence Council, representing input from the 18 intelligence agencies of the U.S., determined that war on Iran is destined to fail. I also warned Mr. Trump's envoys that war will not improve their bargaining position. Were these warnings conveyed? The American People voted to end involvement in costly quagmires in the Middle East. Instead, they have ended up with an Administration that Netanyahu, after decades of failed attempts, finally managed to dupe into fighting Israel's wars. This is a war of choice pursued by a small cabal of 'Israel Firsters', and 'Israel First' always means 'America Last'.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030339512409207005

 

[AlexYe]

Are these damages repairable or they need to demolish the entire building?

Depends on the type of damage, alot will need hella reinforcement work.




This was in Tehran today:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030307734038475207

 

[HereToSeePics]

Iran doing drone assassinations in dubai, marina tower.
View attachment 171017

I wouldn't jump to conclusions that it was a targeted assassination - that's a pretty tall building, the tallest in a cluster of tall buildings and the drone could have just hit it on the way to another target. The drones are reported to fly relatively low to avoid radar after all.

 

[sheogorath]

Real lesson is actually that no amount of air defense can help against saturation attacks. The best way to guard against this is overwhelming preemptive strikes against enemy assets.

I think this was evident from the Ukranian war, but a lot of people just decided to assume it was their favorite disliked side being incompetent