It made sense for the GCC to rely on the US, until now. People can blame them for it, but think about the geography & population. It's mostly desert, so very few people but lots of wealth that's easy to extact.
What do you do to protect yourself? Obviously rely on the strongest nation on Earth, that also happens to be not your neighbor, and therefore has no interest in outright annexation.
The GCC will have to rely on anybody except Iran. Even if Iran wins, however that looks, it will not have an easier time.
Iran, to its own misfortune, is too much like Russia. Both are:
- largely dependent on extracting natural resources, leading to a weaker economy
- don't believe in the legitimacy of most of their neighbors because of imperial past
- have long borders with mixed populations nearby that make them feel exposed
- and I guess now both have a similar political system
Iran used to be a reverse-Russia politically, with the clergy controlling the security and military. Now thanks to the idiot Trump, it's looking more like the security and military guys will take control, i.e. nationalism over religeon as the glue. This means Iran becomes more dangerous to the GCC, not less.
The strategy of bringing in outsiders and forming coalitions will continue regardless of US involvement. Only, as the US declines, its going to be the next set of rising powers. I think the GCC already learned not to put all the eggs in one basket.
