2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[PopularScience]

Carl Zha seems to be confident that China is supply raw materials, drones and ISR to Iran. It will get to Iran by railroad, Caspian sea or through countries from the east borders. He mentioned China's fully booked drone manufacturing is the reason to supply Iran some drones.

If US needs to waste patriot missile to hit drones, it will be a game changer. Drone with more explosive and higher speed is basically a cruise missile.

I think Russia supply them through Caspian Sea.

 

[manqiangrexue]

The worst part is that the manufacturing of these interceptors is way more complex than the missiles that are suppose to intercept. A semiconductor wafer for the electronics of these system take almost three months in a semiconductor plant and that is if they managed to get the materials that is literally constrained because... drum roll ...<here is when the US Think Tank stooge induced tech exports controls on China have backfire>...China is restricting to most US defense contractors. Also because the Taiwan US sales. That has created a shortage of materials needed for military electronics.

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Human rights violation rare earths ban to the US. If they bombed Iranian schools/hospitals, direct sanction. If Israel did it, secondary/indirect sanction.

each incoming missile, sensor acquire more data, better flyout, trajector predication. etc. search & tracking, different weather/environment etc. more data means better software,sensor, physic refinement for the entire interceptor chain. collection of data never stop.

That's true but it works both ways. As the US/Israel gathers info to help them better intercept Iranian attacks, Iran gathers info to help them evade interception. We'll see who learns faster but last time, if I recall correctly, Iran got so much better, they hacked Israeli interceptors so that the missiles came back down onto their own launchers a few times before Israel cried out for US help.

 

[simonov]

the US attack to Iran 28.02.26 is mean to choke China oil after they attack Venezuela?

 

[manqiangrexue]

the US attack to Iran 28.02.26 is mean to choke China oil after they attack Venezuela?

If they can't stop Russian oil, they shouldn't even dream of choking China. They, can, however, choke Europe. It has a real chickeny neck prone to choking whenever there's an issue with energy or goods or anything basically cus they don't make jack shit.

 

[gaussgun]

Pentagon eyes Ukrainian interceptor drones to counter Iran

The Pentagon and at least one Gulf government are in talks to buy Ukrainian-made interceptors to fend off attacks by Iranian drones, according to industry figures in Ukraine.

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[RottenPanzer]

Iran really needs to start evacuating Tehran at this point if they don't want further collateral civilian casualties. Which are the operational modus for both US and Israel terror bombing tactics.

 

[iewgnem]

No just raw materials but semiconductors, motors, carbon fiber and so on. Iran has a entire network of shell companies in Central Asia for procurement.

I mean this should be obvious.
US cant build weapons without Chinese supply chain either, thats just how the modern world works.

 

[TK3600]

He's putting his money down, if you really disagree just bet against him on polymarket

Odds are 3:2 against fall of the Iranian regime by June 30, should be easy money if you're sure.

I have no interest in gambling money to a place where win/lose is decided arbitrarily, like how they decide Ukraine/Russia war progress on a single map maker who made a quick edit to the map then pulled back to manipulate market. Fuck that. Whether Iran survive would be plain as day and people here can be the judge.

 

[H2O]

Iran really needs to start evacuating Tehran at this point if they don't want further collateral civilian casualties. Which are the operational modus for both US and Israel terror bombing tactics.

Evacuate to where?

 

[gaussgun]

I have no interest in gambling money to a place where win/lose is decided arbitrarily, like how they decide Ukraine/Russia war progress on a single map maker who made a quick edit to the map then pulled back to manipulate market. Fuck that. Whether Iran survive would be plain as day and people here can be the judge.

Sure, broad consensus is an arbitrary thing that will need to be decided by council. However, all you need to do is estimate how that will be resolved. Afterall, let's say you're 95% certain that Tehran will not be in another government's control by June 30. That should still be easy money based on your estimates.

This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.

Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic's core structures also do not aualifv. Onlv a clear break in continuity-such as Back to top government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.