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2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]
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Once again, for the umpteenth time I am calling for the inclusion of a vomit emoji.
I believe this is something that'll become more transparent in the coming days.
Don't get me wrong - the US clearly expected an uprising that they could just support from the air and the sea, via special forces operations, weapons, etc., similar to the offensive in Syria that toppled Assad. They wouldn't have to directly engage with their own ground forces, they'd just have to bomb the IRGC with drones and air strikes while local insurgents and fighters from the surrounding US vassals did the heavy lifting.
But since that didn't happen, they now have to consider alternate options for overthrowing the regime. Fighters from surrounding states are still probably the best option, but without a large-scale up rising, they'd have to plan out the actual assault and supplement the fighters with troops from the US and Israel. They'd also need to secure a landing area and supply chains. These are monumental tasks that won't be completed in a few days.
Or, the other option is to once again pull back, sign a temporary peace deal, and come back in a year with all of that worked out. But Trump surely knows the Iranians won't waste time this round. The moment they sign a peace deal, the Iranians will restart their nuclear programs and start importing weapons and platforms. It'll put a timer on when Iran could be successfully attacked next, which throws the entire campaign into uncertainty.
So my guess is, they won't let up the attacks this time unless they can either completely level Iran's military and industrial infrastructure, or there is a regime change, or Trump somehow convinces other great powers to stay out of it and not export any weapons to Iran.
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The reality of elite theory is that spontaneous uprisings do not happen. You always need a leader figure to rally people around. I do not know if the US had someone in mind for that, in the past they would have. If they did not then even this expertise of knowing how to properly regime change (something the US deep state has become excellent at) has been lost under the current admin.
I can recommend Neema Parvini as an author on the subject of Elite theory, specifically "The Populist Delusion" and "Applied Elite theory". I do not think there is a better summary of the subject.
I was recently banned from this thread for 24 hours and had some posts deleted due to a rule I was not aware of.
Is there a list of all the rules somewhere? Can someone please point me to it? I read a rule posting when I joined but it did not mention that specific rule I apparently violated as far as I remember.
This is America's Suez Moment.
The event that shows America is no longer the global superpower
Starting this war in Ramadan in particular seems designed to give the Iranians maximum rallying and mobilization potential. Then you add the whole fanatical "Armageddon" talk from the Pentagon, and you get something even worse than the "Clash of Civilizations" framing that little Bush used. The Iranians can and do read, and that's plenty of material to their advantage.
Ironically enough, Iran is likely controlled by the least ideological leaders in decades now, while the US & Israel are, at least rhetorically, going the Ayatollah route. Problem is, the majority of Americans don't want to go there, especially the youth who are the typical cannon fodder for most wars. So, no major boots on the grund any time soon.
Ironically enough, Iran is likely controlled by the least ideological leaders in decades now, while the US & Israel are, at least rhetorically, going the Ayatollah route. Problem is, the majority of Americans don't want to go there, especially the youth who are the typical cannon fodder for most wars. So, no major boots on the grund any time soon.
Episode III: A New Hope
On the scale of Ahmad Chalabi (Episode I) and Hamid Karzai (Episode II), he wouldn't last an hour.
So why are they striking military sites in border provinces?? It's pretty obvious that US-backed Kurds will try to invade
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