2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

Will Iran-Israel conflict start again?

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SteelBird

SteelBird

Colonel
TPenglake said:
I typically don't pay heed to predicting the future posts, including the one posted earlier today. But to assess how things are going, lets just lay out the US's already stated objectives and see now that we're in Day 5 how things are going along.
  1. Regime change: Not anywhere near close. It should be an undebateable fact now that the conditions in Iran simply do not exist for a popular rebellion leading to regime change. Yes the regime has its many faults and many Iranians are disatisfied with their governance. But the country has always lacked any opposing ideaology for people to rally behind, and even if it did it lacked charismatic opposition figures to inspire people. What ethnic separatists exist in the country are too small in number to seriously threaten internal security. Now we arrive at the war that has created a rally around the flag effect for the populace. The IRGC have essentially gone rogue to avenge Khameini's demise, with no one in the country having the clout to get them to stand down. Whatever devastation they suffer, the country seems ready to fight until the US and its allies back off.
  2. Elimination of Iran's nuclear program: Since its a stated objective for the current war, the verdict is already in that the 12 Day War's strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure was a failure. So far there has not been a single mention in any Israeli or US daily briefing about Iran's nuclear program, only targeting leadership and missile launchers. I don't think I need to elaborate further, it is damn hard and something that even with their current bravado Israel and US are not optimistic about.
  3. Degradation of Iran's long range strike capabilties: Harder to assess. We don't know how extensive their ballistic missile arsenal is and launches seem to have gone down. No point in arguing whether its because they're waiting for something big or running out, we don't know. However, Iran is still in the fight using drones and less sophisticated munitions to strike US bases and economic targets all over the Middle-East. Sophisticated missile engineered with Russian and Chinese assistance, or 50,000 dollar drone, Iran has the global economy held hostage. As such, while its hard to quantify Iran's stockpiles, the fact they can do as much damage currently with what they have means once again, the US and Israel ain't nowhere near close to achieving this objective.
The most important factor is that while every faction in the Middle-East sees itself fighting for survival, for the US this war is the ultimate war of choice. Parties engaged in wars of choice rather than survival always take the off ramp, not because they are losing on the battlefield per se, but because it becomes clear that the war is politically untenable. Which Trump will likely do if he feels the war is beginning to impact the Republican's midterm chances, unless the dirt the Israelis have on him is really that bad.
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If there is any traitor in the current Iranian regime, I think it is the President. The US and Israel's missiles aimed Khamenei but not the President.
 
horse

horse

Brigadier
Registered Member
AlexYe said:
They were visiting because of Ramadan, Israel didnt care.
The school they struck was intentional too as that school had daughters of some politicians and military personal.

This isnt going to fool as many people as they think although the various arab state leaders might use this though.

Since yesterday, Israeli Media , Rubio , Trump have said about something big happening.
Al-Arabiya from Iran posted that some mossad link mercs/personal were operating last night in Iran and IRGC was fighting them.

I think the big thing they are talking about some special operation that is going to target the 460 kg of nuclear material they have, if they acquire it this might give trump the exit he is looking for.
This is why they have been dropping bits about boots on ground or casualties.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2028671162742407379
"Trump will be happy with this"
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2028708138468118625
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There is no news from the usual Western mouthpieces, and they are moving the goalposts every single day.

We know how this war is going.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
sheogorath said:
I remember that during the 12 Days War, the Shaheds wouldn't make it past Jordan. That they are making it all the way to Tel Aviv means the AD is more depleted than they care to admit and they are probably prioritizing what gets shot down.
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It’s not the depletion of AD that is the key difference, it’s the dismantling of regional U.S. air bases and the stripping away of US fighter screens that is causing western style air defences to crumble. The west always relied overwhelmingly on its air power for both defensive and offensive critical mass. Western air defences are only meant to mop up leakers that slip past the fighters, not so the heavy lifting themselves. That’s why they are doing so poorly now, and also why they were so disappointing in Ukraine.
 
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