look like THADD won't save Korea and Japan
2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]
- Thread starter doggydogdo
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Guess it ain’t all THADD
I typically don't pay heed to predicting the future posts, including the one posted earlier today. But to assess how things are going, lets just lay out the US's already stated objectives and see now that we're in Day 5 how things are going along.
- Regime change: Not anywhere near close. It should be an undebateable fact now that the conditions in Iran simply do not exist for a popular rebellion leading to regime change. Yes the regime has its many faults and many Iranians are disatisfied with their governance. But the country has always lacked any opposing ideaology for people to rally behind, and even if it did it lacked charismatic opposition figures to inspire people. What ethnic separatists exist in the country are too small in number to seriously threaten internal security. Now we arrive at the war that has created a rally around the flag effect for the populace. The IRGC have essentially gone rogue to avenge Khameini's demise, with no one in the country having the clout to get them to stand down. Whatever devastation they suffer, the country seems ready to fight until the US and its allies back off.
- Elimination of Iran's nuclear program: Since its a stated objective for the current war, the verdict is already in that the 12 Day War's strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure was a failure. So far there has not been a single mention in any Israeli or US daily briefing about Iran's nuclear program, only targeting leadership and missile launchers. I don't think I need to elaborate further, it is damn hard and something that even with their current bravado Israel and US are not optimistic about.
- Degradation of Iran's long range strike capabilties: Harder to assess. We don't know how extensive their ballistic missile arsenal is and launches seem to have gone down. No point in arguing whether its because they're waiting for something big or running out, we don't know. However, Iran is still in the fight using drones and less sophisticated munitions to strike US bases and economic targets all over the Middle-East. Sophisticated missile engineered with Russian and Chinese assistance, or 50,000 dollar drone, Iran has the global economy held hostage. As such, while its hard to quantify Iran's stockpiles, the fact they can do as much damage currently with what they have means once again, the US and Israel ain't nowhere near close to achieving this objective.
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yes, they are economical and quick to produce
true
Yes , but that also means they've kept the launchers hidden and aren't using them at their full potential , even when the ayatollah has been killed . The bases have been struck , but the iranians haven't matched the intensity of us and israel in launching anti surface weapons because they worry their launchers would be taken out .
The launchers and weapons being cheap and quick to produce should increase iranian offensive capability , but the lack of ad leads to contraction of iranian offensive capabilities , and what capability it maintains , it doesn't utilize fully because they minimize their use out of the fear of being taken out by us/israeli fighters
Iran took out AN/FPS-134, at least one and potentially 3 THAAD, destroyed and taken out of equation every US base in the ME, shutdown almost all ME energy export, destroyed multiple American embassies, and thats before we get into critical targets in Israel that they wont admit.
The goal of war isnt fireworks or killing children, if Iran is planning for a long war, and theyve said they are, then unlike last year's demonstrative strikes its now in their interest to minimize number of strikes needed to destroy their targets.
The Israel/US practice of bombing schools or nameplate buildings that has long been evacuated isnt war, its just terrorism. The actual full potential of Irans missiles in a real protracted war isnt in firing massive demonstration volleys, its their ability to get through will minimum number of launches
I would not believe that bs. I would not go there.
How long did they bomb the Ho Chi Min trail? Then it was Agent Orange.
How well did that work?
That is the remarkable thing. The Americans do the exact same thing over and over again.
Once they start talk like this, you know it is over.
The symmetry is remarkable. In its unipolar moment, they invade that other country, and that really was the peak. Now they are actively trying to destroy what is left of the empire with an attack on this other country.
I am laughing my freaking ass off!
Damn middlemen making crazy money off DOD procurement
Digging a tunnel at the foot of the mountain provides hundreds of meters of shelter from the mountainside.
To the current Israeli government, and certain rather salient and influential segments of the American political establishment, a major war in the Middle East is not necessarily a "bad thing" at all!
These aren't elites who are particularly concerned about dead Iranian or Arab civilians, the bill American taxpayers will have to foot, or even the .
Lifting of sanctions against Iran — especially on a gradual basis — is plausible, but a mushroom cloud over Tehran is more probable than the payment of reparations.
Given how viciously Iran has been demonized by both the American government and mainstream media for decades, the payment of reparations to Tehran would constitute political suicide for the occupant of the White House, if not much of Congress as well.
Limited withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East is plausible, especially with diminishing GCC faith in Uncle Sam as a security guarantor. Likewise, the US has been looking to .
On the other hand, a total withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East — or even the GCC — is highly unlikely without the emergence of a new regional security architecture, if not the entry of China or Russia as an alternative security guarantor.
However, that's not a job the Chinese currently want, nor is it something the Russians have bandwidth for right now.
That's a fair assessment.
The Iranians are understandably upset, but at some point, they're going to run low on long-range weapons, especially harder-to-intercept ballistic missiles.
Unfortunately for the Iranian military-industrial complex, it remains fairly dependent on foreign supply chains. Critical materials like sodium perchlorate and ammonium perchlorate — essential for manufacturing solid fuel rocket motors — cannot be delivered in bulk while an American armada remains positioned off the Iranian coast.
Moreover, there's always the chance the GCC sheikhdoms will initiate retaliatory strikes of their own.
GCC militaries are not exactly renowned for competence, but the Saudis have amassed a significant and capable missile stockpile thanks to decades of low key Chinese assistance.
I wouldn't count on the Russians to offer the Iranians much help. Moscow still has plenty on its own plate thanks to the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has now been dragging on for over four years.
Moreover, the situation in play — especially in the Strait of Hormuz — is a huge boon to the Russian economy thanks to skyrocketing hydrocarbon prices.
Trump can just declare victory — even if there is no victory — while promising his AIPAC megadonors that he'll circle back after the midterms conclude.
The Israelis won't be happy, but they might have to accept a pause in hostilities to rebuild their air defense interceptor stockpiles. Same goes for the GCC sheikhdoms.
Likewise, the Iranians will most likely want to refill their missile and OWA drone magazines, level up in terms of air defense infrastructure, and maybe even assemble some fission devices of their own — as that's the only meaningful way to guarantee their long term survival as a sovereign nation — before the next round of fighting commences.
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