I think the fixation on the amount of ballistic missiles Iran is launching ignores the other aspect of this war that's central to its strategy and that's the economic aspect. I mean, it shouldn't come as a surprise right? In Ukraine outside of the battlefield, everyone fixates on the state of the Russian economy and its potential collapse, a hope that never materializes due to Russia's continued oil exports. Even as the intensity of Iranian bombardments decline for whatever reason, including the worst case scenario of them running out, their drones alone have already upended the global economy and put the Gulf states under siege.
Keep in mind, the entirety of the GCC relies on imports for 85% of their food as well as desalination plants for water. Less we forget before oil, the Gulf region was no land of fertility and plenty, it was a wasteland where tribes subsisted off water wells and sheep, and having blood feuds over said water wells and sheep. With both commercial air and ship traffic to the Gulf countries cut off, they are as stated earlier under siege. Iran has many of the same problems as well, but something tells me that compared to the Iranian people who have been under sanctions for decades, Gulf citizens and their expats who are used to incredibly hedonistic lifestyles aren't going to take the new reality of war time scarcity all too well.
What of the world? Energy costs are spiking rapidly in Europe. As the war drags on, quality of life will decline especially as we get to winter if the war really lasts until then. Europeans aren't going to care why their QOL is declining, they'll just respond in kind by electing Far Right parties. More Far Right parties being elected of course will affect the course of the Ukraine War, where the US has all but abandoned Ukraine by this point and the EU is the country's sole backer. As more EU countries turn to the Right, then eventually Ukraine will face the harsh reality of either fighting the Russians to their last bullet or being forced to accept an unconditional surrender. East Asia will be in for a rough one, as countries like Japan and Korea rely on GCC oil for 90% of their imports.
And then the US, which of course won't be in danger of any shortages, but will face the effects of higher pump prices and inflation, on top of Trump's fanatics welcoming a quick victory over Iran but still hesistant to engage in a war of attrition. Come midterms, if situation in the US deteriorates to the point where the Democrats can actually be on the verge of winning enough seats in both chambers to impeach Trump, then something tells me the boys in the Gulf currently will be called back to the US for a more, pressing assignment to put it lightly.
All that, Iran can essentially accomplish with just drones instead of ballistic missiles.
Keep in mind, the entirety of the GCC relies on imports for 85% of their food as well as desalination plants for water. Less we forget before oil, the Gulf region was no land of fertility and plenty, it was a wasteland where tribes subsisted off water wells and sheep, and having blood feuds over said water wells and sheep. With both commercial air and ship traffic to the Gulf countries cut off, they are as stated earlier under siege. Iran has many of the same problems as well, but something tells me that compared to the Iranian people who have been under sanctions for decades, Gulf citizens and their expats who are used to incredibly hedonistic lifestyles aren't going to take the new reality of war time scarcity all too well.
What of the world? Energy costs are spiking rapidly in Europe. As the war drags on, quality of life will decline especially as we get to winter if the war really lasts until then. Europeans aren't going to care why their QOL is declining, they'll just respond in kind by electing Far Right parties. More Far Right parties being elected of course will affect the course of the Ukraine War, where the US has all but abandoned Ukraine by this point and the EU is the country's sole backer. As more EU countries turn to the Right, then eventually Ukraine will face the harsh reality of either fighting the Russians to their last bullet or being forced to accept an unconditional surrender. East Asia will be in for a rough one, as countries like Japan and Korea rely on GCC oil for 90% of their imports.
And then the US, which of course won't be in danger of any shortages, but will face the effects of higher pump prices and inflation, on top of Trump's fanatics welcoming a quick victory over Iran but still hesistant to engage in a war of attrition. Come midterms, if situation in the US deteriorates to the point where the Democrats can actually be on the verge of winning enough seats in both chambers to impeach Trump, then something tells me the boys in the Gulf currently will be called back to the US for a more, pressing assignment to put it lightly.
All that, Iran can essentially accomplish with just drones instead of ballistic missiles.
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