2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[xsub1223342]

If Iran still has Submarines and they didn't deploy them anywhere else like around the Suez canal This could be suicide for US navy vessels traveling across Hormuz.

They dont need submarines, they could just buy some USV's from Russia or China if they dont have their own.... hell even suicide attacks will could be quite effective if you're going though the strait... Either way, the USN will be facing drone spam or cruise missile spam in such a choke point they'll have hardly any time to react. In NORMAL circumstances a Shaead style drone shouldn't get close at all to a Navy ship but like I posted before, real life is different and things... happen.

The USN got lucky with a drone attack on a USN ship they had to use the 5 inch gun to take the drone out before it hit the ship as it was already inside the minimum distance for missiles. They managed to get so close to the ship by hiding a drone behind the other one and it only got revealed on radar (because they were so close to each other) after the lead drone it got destroyed.
If a USN ships sinks in the Strait.... it'll be a massive blow to the prestige that the USN is "invincible".

The strait is already 30km wide. Its a tighter choke point than the Red Sea... We all know "escorting" ships though Prosperity Guardian turned out, and for you outsider who believe the "US won vs the Houthi's" most ships sail around the Horn of Africa since 2023. If they really laughed about Russia stuggling dealing with USV's in the Black Sea, the Strait of Hormuz will silence them. I dont like making predicitons but its pretty obvious that this is most risky assignemnt the USN has ever gotten in DECADES. This is the once in a life time oppertunity for Iran (well I guess both sides). We'll see if both sides follow though with it... because I dont see how the Captain of a ship can agree to this especially after it went with the Houthi's.... hubris I guess?

 

[EmoBirb]

Most of that is on Iranians. Their ADF wasn't designed to even try until recent years, and whatever Iran tried to add last moment came too little, too late.
That is apart from lack of any visible performance from their radar SAMs in general tbh.

We've seen elsewhere the ability of far less sophisticated missiles to slip past far more capable air defense systems. Point is, just because the US Military isn't a beacon of morality, doesn't mean that their missiles are "barely better than shahed type drones", as that other person claimed. Tomahawk, JASSM and LRASM among others are sufficiently threatening systems that all the large global players seek means to reliably counter them and their deployment against their forces in a potential conflict.

In short, we shouldn't fall into blind cheerleading and be dismissive. It's the same mentality that makes NAFOids so obnoxious with their terribly bad takes on any given Chinese or Russian origin weapon system.

Over it's service, Tomahawk has proven to be arguably one of the best systems the Americans ever adopted and a template for other naval forces and their VLS launched land attack cruise missiles.

 

[another505]

Just like mercenaries in wars, anything is possible with big enough monetary incentives.

Sure, like ICE that never got their sign up bonuses, trusting Trump to pay you is the same level of IQ as MAGA voters. But knowing how many did voted for him, I would not be surprised some will take his words for it.

Regardless, if they do start sending burkes into the strait, Iran must be in full joy for a chance to hit. (successful or not idk)

 

[doggydogdo]

A Chinese worker found a discarded ATACMS (M57A1) launcher box on the roadside in Kuwait...

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it looks like Kuwait is direct party to the war, unlike what they said

 

[iewgnem]

Well, first, everything has backdoor, just me make it clear, doesn't matter where you made and whom made it.

But, prior of 2008 there was simply not enoguth transistor to make backdoors and similar stuff in electronics. So, there is nothing there is practice.

Companies started to make experiences with this kind of stuff around 2004, first units with hypervisors arrived around that time.

first realy backdoored stuff arived around 2008 .

If you want true non backdoored cumputer use an old xbox or ps3 , that is fully hacked . not so fast, but can be made fully secure.

Hence the preference of the military to use old, 2005 and prior stuff, with clear and easy to check silicons.

Huawei might or might not have a backdoor, but it's irrelevant because you can be pretty certain Huawei doesn't have an American or Israeli backdoor, and that's all that matters.

As for you believing pre-2008 devices can't have backdoors, you're wrong and I'll just leave it at that.
The only benefit to random old devices is the user base is so small there might not be much resources spent on keep them under surveillance.

 

[bsdnf]

it looks like Kuwait is direct party to the war, unlike what they said

This was already evident when CENTCOM released the MLRS firing footage, which is why Kuwait was targeted.

 

[Gloire_bb]

Ground hugging missiles are still hard to defeat IMO, unlike some here would like to claim without AEWC providing a large radar horizon to detect these missiles, destroying them from purely ground defense is difficult not due to the missile itself being hard to detect but simply due to ground system have tiny horizon against these targets especially in bad terrain meaning you either need to have a very large amount of ground radars to fully stop them or use AEWC.

It's of course difficult, but.
Did Iran produce dedicated CIWS? Well, yes, Zoubin, in the very last moment. Apparently few if any survived June - if they worked correctly. They also had a few Tors and reverse-engineered Dezfuls in IRGC, but those are not proper overwatch systems, as typical for Ru army systems, they have very limited active time.

Did Iran have big SAMs to provide area defense against LACMs? Like, masted SAM systems, not tied to suicidal fixed positions(which, as we just saw, weren't covered with anything from PGM anyway)?
No, apart from two S-300PMU2 sets lost back in 2024; those indeed came with masts.

As such, everything is LOS, but since we're talking about Iran - everything LOS already has to assume there's something sneaking on it. As such, Iran has no CIWS(to either provide terminal protection or cover big SAMs), and their big SAMs weren't adapted for LACM mission in any case.

The only system which had some adaptation for LACMs was....25th Khordad, which simply got more ammo(6 smaller missiles instead of 3 big ones), but remained just as blind and prone to being ambushed.

 

[EmoBirb]

If a USN ships sinks in the Strait.... it'll be a massive blow to the prestige that the USN is "invincible".

Which is what @siegecrossbow, myself and others have aluded to multiple times. Iran doesn't need to militarily defeat the US+Israel+Gulf States. They just have to stay in the fight and inflict as much pain as possible so that continued operation by this "coalition" becomes untenable. For the US that's mostly in form of deceased Americans having to be shipped home, for the Gulf States it's their fragile fake economies being shattered, Israel is the hardest to deter. But if they're left alone, they will have to back down (or go nuclear). So one or maybe even two Destroyers sufficiently damaged if not even sunk, that would be a huge win for Iran and a major blow to the US which would have to explain this to their population.

 

[Gloire_bb]

We've seen elsewhere the ability of far less sophisticated missiles to slip past far more capable air defense systems. Point is, just because the US Military isn't a beacon of morality, doesn't mean that their missiles are "barely better than shahed type drones", as that other person claimed. Tomahawk, JASSM and LRASM among others are sufficiently threatening systems that all the large global players seek means to reliably counter them and their deployment against their forces in a potential conflict.

The problem isn't that other systems sneak by, say, Russian defenses. Iranian problem is that apparently few munitions are getting intercepted, and even large MALE drones get to ambush SAMs far more often than SAMs ambush them. Look at typical angle of engagent - right above, within blind cone for most systems.

And the only system that consistently ambush at least drones are... Ghaem/358-359, sometimes Majid. I.e. smallest/stealthiest and newest.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Tomahawk apparently got a very significant refresh though. I wouldn't rush to consider it outdated anymore.

Doesnt change the fundamental characteristic, that is, its subsonic, and not stealthy.

Subsonic missiles are worse than shahed drones. They are more expensive but equally easy to shootdown. The only saving grace will be warhead size.