2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[Mmmeeeto]

Damn it.. Iranian shaheed drone hits building in Tel Aviv.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2028911961014968801

That's Ukraine

 

[texx1]

As a possible signal of UAE's confidence in handling Iranian attacks, it will reopen its stock market tomorrow.

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[phrozenflame]

Buy Huawei ya dummies.

I know for a fact that whatsapp, telegram, signal all can be decrypted and read, even deleted messages, without passwords, by law enforcement, outside US and Israel, too. Just an FYI.

Anyway, on the topic, I found this website to be a decent aggregator of what's going on:
iranstrike dot com

Skip the stats, feed is decent for staying on top of things.

 

[bagi]

U

Two entirely different situations (to be exact, same as for first few days over Ukraine - which is arguably the reason it turned out the way it did for Russia).

US and Israel "rolled in" air defense carpet stage by stage, thoroughly. But as Iran is just a big, mountainous country, and number of aircraft over Iran is not infinite, nor support aircraft can afford to fly over Iran(yet) - it's possible to sneak out a few small low altitude strike sorties by just via timing sorties when blue strikegroups eggress.
But this is exactly "in-between", because meeting western groups is hopeless for Iranian aircraft - not only they can't fight back, there's apparently no even firm picture of blue aircraft presense any longer.

VKS doesn't fly over FLOT at all - and as such, it is always a manageable threat in modern air combat, simply because under GAC you can always turn away and energy kill any attack. Granted, sortie is wasted, but you'll survive.

Shaheds are flying in all directions now, and majority of sorties are offensive. There's just no huge fleet of bored aircraft, tasked exclusively with interception right on Iran's doorstep.

I would argue it is not as different as it seems, because there is weight to the argument that the iranian air force should have been unable to fly with cold war aircraft under its traditional old ways (which are very much a larger doctrine that includes the tactics you described).

Low altitude flights, attempts to fly outside of any non-destroyed/compromised radar coverage, strike attempts/success like the one the IRIAF claims to having done at gulf oil platforms two days ago... ...all should be very hard to even start. The US/israel bipartite iranian enemy force is vastly different from 1980s iraq, had and have immense quantities of aircraft around the middle east right now. Yet it is not happening much.

Also, we are not much aware of how much actual US/israeli sorties above iran are happening. the notably high tomahawk/drone use is strange. If we take the american/israeli claims, we may suppose they are a lot. but conflicts with some aifield evacuations by the US in the gulf. Also there are some signs a considerable number of airfields and some airbases closer to iran were hit heavily.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Iran already lost most of their missle program their main offensive weapon are low cost shahed style cruise missles. It is really telling how low cost cruise missles (call them drones if you want to) seem to be Irans most dangerous weapon. Asia and Europe schould learn from that.

The question is are they willing to learn and apply the lessons.

 

[tokenanalyst]

I think stooges in the White House are thinking that if Russia lasted so long in Ukraine the US can do the same in Iran. Biggest issue is that Russia is NEXT DOOR to Ukraine in a 18 million square kilometers military base. The US is operating from two boats and a military base in a small island and Israel that is 1300 kilometers from Iran.

 

[another505]

Even with insurance for the tankers/containerships in the strait, the crew has to be mad to risk their life to dash though the strait for their capital overlords.

 

[xsub1223342]

So I guess Trump is going to send the navy into the Straits of Hormuz. Gotta keep the oil prices down no matter what.

I never expected Iran to sink a ship unless the stars align, they depleted the CSG AA and got really lucky... but I guess the USN wants to help them if they are going to be "escorting" ships though the strait... This is basically asking someone to commit suicide no? The Iranians we not really targeting USN ships besides some harassment fire to the CSG but having the USN come to the strait is literally offering up our ships to the Iranians on a silver platter. There's just no way they actually go though with this right? There are just some things where even a captain of a ship has to say "no".

it seems Iran pretty much lost most of its offensive capabilities except its missile program which is on US's next attack list, once its missile program is destroyed, what is left of Iran's leverages? how are Iran able to fight back?

Not sure why your allowed to say this without a single fact to back it up? You people come here and say "Iran lost, just give up" and then a ballistic missile hits UAE/Israel 15mins after you posted this. The only thing lost right now are interceptors being wasted left and right.

 

[iewgnem]

Trump announces US will provide insurance for shipping traveling through the Gulf via the US Development Finance Corporation and possibly providing naval escorts.

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I suspect the reason people buy life insurance isn't so they can go ahead and die.

 

[TheFuture_NoMore]

So I guess Trump is going to send the navy into the Straits of Hormuz. Gotta keep the oil prices down no matter what.

This will bring USN ships within the range of Irans anti-shipping missiles, and potentially ship losses.

The Americans may be feeling lucky given that Iran has not been able to shoot down any jets over her airspace yet.