2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

Will Iran-Israel conflict start again?


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Eventine

Senior Member
Registered Member
Well they just bombed him at his residence along with his family.
How much infiltration do you need for that? Just need to be willing to start a war and finish it somehow.

The biggest mistake the Ayatollah made was not understanding Israel and the US was not treating Iran as a nation state with a long, proud history but a giant Hezbollah with no legitimacy.

Explains why they keep tricking themselves and get clowned on during negotiations.
Don't think they'll ever internalize this, and too late for some.
Iran is such an infiltrated country that even if they tried to hide him, someone would've known where he was hiding, it'd have just been a matter of time. He did survive plenty of previous attacks on his life. This time, though, the odds were just too against him with how much resources and assets were deployed.

In the age of precision strikes, militaries with total air superiority can conduct decapitation strikes with high degrees of success, as long as they have some degree of intelligence on the ground. It's not the 90s or even 00s any more when taking out Saddam or even Bin Laden required a full scale land campaign. Breakthroughs in satellite surveillance, drones, stronger intelligence networks, social media, and AI have changed the game.
 

H2O

Junior Member
Registered Member
For those posting links from Twitter, please add a short description first.

UK not involved in attack, BBC understands


Oh my!!! how did UK let this golden opportunity slip, they shouldve being in the front row to paying the lip service to masters balls.

The UK is far too invested into Ukraine.


Honestly not a bad plan for Iran to mobilize and push into Iraq, Kuwait, and maybe Syria by that point...It would be hilarious if this ended up with Iran with more territory, ever closer to Israel.

Iran does not have the means to do so.


Khamenei could have died from natural causes anytime since he was 86. So I’m pretty sure he would have chosen a successor in place well before this.

^This


The death of Khamenei, the 86 year old may not be a big deal as people are saying. But the death of the supreme leader is. If people are still going to downplay it even now, saying decapitation strikes doesn't matter, or someone else will take power... I don't even know what to think of this....

Although the death of a leader will have an impact but, to say it's the end of an adversary like Iran is a bit premature. We're not dealing with a monarchy.
 

Gloire_bb

Colonel
Registered Member
Decapitation strikes only matter when the government you’re trying to take down is highly dependent on specific individuals. Not all governments are highly dependent on individuals. If you don’t find this believable it’s because you haven’t studied enough political history.
Iran is a country which manages to keep together:
-massed heroism and stoicism, from junior personnel to highest officials. I.e. genuine patriotism(to Islamic Republic)
-systemic betrayal. Often by genuinely patriotic (to Iran) personnel, from junior to highest officials. They don't do it for money.
-systemic corruption. Points/2/ doesn't exclude massed theft and massed small scale betrayal for money from junior to medium ranked officials and personnel. People are surviving, and police, for all brutality, is clearly weak.

What does it mean? It means deeply divided country, and everyone sitting on a powder keg, which is held together by two factors:
-mediation(represented in highest form by the leader)
-Existential threat of making things even worse (bad as things are, they aren't neeeearly as bad as in Syria or Afghanistan, and you guess who's bringing the freedom to Iran).

One of these just got taken out. And mediator is not a position you can just appoint someone into.
 

H2O

Junior Member
Registered Member
Of course it doesn't matter.. What I'm saying is why was there no effective deterrence from the iranian side? This all started when the first trump government Assassinated soleimani. And to hear about the claims of 0 fatalities from the allied combat forces makes me think what was the objective to fire ballistic missiles at your enemies..?

No one here have the answer to that question. There could be multiple reasons ranging from bad luck to incompetence.
 

Randomuser

Major
Registered Member
Of course it doesn't matter.. But would china let america assassinate it's president and claim the same? What does it even say of you? I'm not talking about whether or not decapitation strikes are effective.. What I'm saying is why was there no effective deterrence from the iranian side? This all started when the first trump government Assassinated soleimani. And to hear about the claims of 0 fatalities from the allied combat forces makes me think what was the objective to fire ballistic missiles at your enemies..?
I think its kinda accepted at this point Iran has massive security flaws and poor controls. Its actually impressive in a sense, it still running normally.
 

sdkan

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think its kinda accepted at this point Iran has massive security flaws and poor controls. Its actually impressive in a sense, it still running normally.

This is not surprising, unless the US-Israeli ground forces enter Iran.
Within Iran, there will not be an immediate replacement of the current regime by another power.
 
D

Deleted member 27830

Guest
Despite SA's public announcement that it wouldn't allow its airbases to be used in the attack on Iran and supporting diplomacy, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman secretly lobbied Trump for an attack.

Saudis were worried about its vulnerable oil infrastructure and the old rivalry against Shiite.

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Funny how everyone was like "OMG! China helped with the Iran-Saudi reproachment. Its so successful! Diplomacy is so sexy! They are joining BRICS and opposing the US haha GG!" I'll still blame Iran for being so naive with their nuclear program. Now they are stuck having to keep their friends happy with oil prices and no real way to defend themselves without setting the world economy on fire, and even that might still checkmate them and turn even their partners against them.
 
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