2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[FriedButter]

Has anything happened to the Iranian naval ships? It been like what 16 hours and not an peep from anyone about ships that can’t really do anything.

 

[iewgnem]

Noting the amount of smoke given off, the 5th Fleet HQ fire looks massive!
View attachment 170419

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That's a lot of smoke for an "empty warehouse" lol

 

[siegecrossbow]

That's a lot of smoke for an "empty warehouse" lol

Obviously a fuel depot of some sort.

Has anything happened to the Iranian naval ships? It been like what 16 hours and not an peep from anyone about ships that can’t really do anything.

Didn’t they cut internet?

 

[Kalum Pupeter]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2027830266291531899

 

[Tomboy]

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They hit Burj Khalifa directly during the night

 

[doggydogdo]

If the fight continues there's a strong chance that the gulf states might go into civil wars. Their governments are all headed monarchs that support Israel which is very unpopular and they have large Shia populations that would be willing to fight. militias with fpvs would be more than a match for the militaries of these countries.

 

[MMelon]

Dont forget the pedophiles get to make more orphans to traffic later.

I really can't agree with their bad habit of playing with their food.

I doubt the energy disruption will hurt the PRC more than they hurt themselves. A few factors to consider:

1. Oil is a highly globalized commodity, same applies to gas to a lesser extent. When prices go up, they go up for everyone, not just PRC. The US has plenty of domestic oil production, but unless they can outright ban oil & petrol product exports (doubtful given the power of the oil & gas lobby), the oil companies will have every incentive to export as many barrels as possible to maximize profits, if prices abroad are higher than prices at home.

2. Russia will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this oil price surge. When oil is scarce, countries will have far less incentive to maintain the pretenses of paying lip service to US/EU sanctions (including the EU itself), & buy oil from wherever available. If this disruption lasts, it could fuel Russia's coffers (& thus its ability to wage war) for years. It also forces the PRC to further solidify its relations with Russia - a reliable overland supplier of oil.

3. There will be a global incentive to mitigate oil dependence - the easiest & shortest path is to buy Chinese NEVs & renewable energy generation & transmission equipment. The incentive to switch to cleantech will go through the roof, & the PRC - the obvious dominant incumbent in these fields - will be the biggest beneficiary of any such effort. The PRC itself will obviously also have increased long-term strategic & short-term economic incentives to accelerate the pace of transport electrification.

Bottom line - the oil supply disruption will be comparably painful for everyone in the short term, but will be more beneficial to the PRC in the mid/long term relative to the US, since the former is far better prepared for such a disruption.

I don't think the oil corporations in the West care about ensuring domestic supply. Their duty is to absolute maximization of shareholder profits and if that means exporting everything out of their home countries, then so be it. I do agree that there are a lot of opportunities here for Russia and China.

Also, if destruction of West Asian oil supply is part of the Western plan, Iran could easily thwart it by simply not striking Arab oil infrastructure.

 

[brock]

If the fight continues there's a strong chance that the gulf states might go into civil wars. Their governments are all headed monarchs that support Israel which is very unpopular and they have large Shia populations that would be willing to fight. militias with fpvs would be more than a match for the militaries of these countries.

I doubt it'll actually happen considering that many gulf states use mercenaries for their army (They avoid any potential politically motivated coup by hiring mercenaries who are only loyal to cash, and by not having their own population being employed into the army)

And also lots of people there don't even have weapons.

 

[Neurosmith]

A few days ago, when large numbers of U.S. aircraft were sitting on unprotected ramps—completely at the mercy of attack—the Iranian leadership still refused to carry out a preemptive strike. And now, Khamenei may well have died to one of those aircraft.
The Iranian leadership—clinging even to the faintest hope of surrender—would go to any lengths to fawn and ingratiate itself, offering up the interests and dignity of its own nation to negotiate with the aggressor, indulging the fantasy that enemy might spare it, and never daring to fight . So in the end, it has received a fate perfectly befitting its character.

秦人不暇自哀，而后人哀之。后人哀之而不鉴之，亦使后人而复哀后人也

If Iran had carried out a preemptive strike, it would have undergone a far worse fate than it is currently. The US and Israelis have been restrained in this conflict, despite what you see on social media.

 

[FriedButter]

Rumors of B-2 Bombers.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2027842756693856716