Even if the toilets were fine, they're at the tail end of an unusually long deployment about to potentially engage in battle. Morale can't be great on that tub.
2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]
- Thread starter doggydogdo
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This is silly when you don't consider that Iran already made it clear that they see this war as a existential crisis for the regime. We have talks and reports with Trump frustration on his "limited" options on striking Iran. Iran also making it clear that they will make this war into a REGIONAL war, and what is this region over saturated with? You think all the Kings Patriots and all the Kings THAAD's will protect all the oil refineries from smacked by Shahed's and cruise missiles alike? It wont. Same reason why the 12 day war ended, not because Israel or Iran won, but because Israel ran out of air defense missiles. Its not really that complicated, Iran is calling Trump's bluff by risking a regional war and its showing it might work. Its about whether the US can endure loses of American lives and the global economy and depleting air defenses as they said it themselves, that it may drag out longer than a "short term operation" and go on for weeks. Mind you Israel and the US threw the towel in 12 days as Iran was increased its successful hits as the war dragged on from 5% at the start of the 12 day war, to 20% at the end of the war. The rest of the report does not speak a pretty picture for Air defense either let alone Iran will probably incorporate their lessons learned as they did during the 12 day war to increase their hit probabilities (like lobbing missiles in Air Defense gaps "Gurilla" warefare" style).
Why do you think they want to limit Iran's ballistic missile production? If Iran didn't hit anything or they all miss (like some posters here previously keep saying), then why? It just doesn't make any sense to at all. You may scoff at the low % probability but it was enough for Israel to give up last time this doesn't take into the account that Iran, can very much just strike targets that are not protected by Patriots, and other AD systems, you think they can guard every single refinery? Even the Houthi's managed to get Saudi Arabia to back off in 2019 after they stuck a SINGLE refinery guarded by Patriots and Shahine's. This is Iran who is now getting far more help from the Chinese and Russians at the very least with satellite ISR. And remember, if you have 0% intercpetors left, the hit probabililty jumps to 100%.
Im not saying Iran can win, but they can sure make it a very painful for the US to commit to this with no end goal in sight, because even getting rid of the Ayatollah still leaves uncertainty. Will they continue to fight? If they do what then? And I very very much doubt the US has increased production in air defense missiles is such little time, they'll be forced to still waste quite a few SM-3's on Shahed's considering the US also nearly used 25% of its THAAD (150) interceptors in 12 days. While the US currently only has a production rate of 98x missiles per year. While if you belive what the Iranians say, they made produce 800 ballistic missiles since the 12 day war that can reach Israel.
This is Iran, not Venuzella. Do you think a CSG has a infinite amount of air defense missiles? More than Iran can throw at them? What happens when a CSG Abraham Lincoln expends a little too much of its air defense, will they stick around? Becasue they cant rearm as sea, what if the Houthi's also join in a cordinated attack agaisnt the CSG? They already gave Ford a run for her money multiple times.
If the Ayotollah doesnt start attacking the oil refinereis even after their hospitals, schools, and civilian infastructre gets attacked, then I dont know what to tell you.
But I could be wrong and America just steam rolls all over Iran. Who knows, but I would think they would have done it already if they could if they were that confident in their abilities for a swift and decisive short war.
It was rather "impossible to finish off Iran by long range air operations", while Iran still could shoot back.
The problem is simple - with US in equation, Iran can in fact readily lose any ability to shoot at Israel. Baseline condition for Iran to continue stinging over long period of time was effective AA, capable of forcing attrition on aircraft operating over Iran; Yet Iranian AA was just not effective at all.
Iran just doesn't have infinite TELs, and US can have helluva air power over Iran. If Iran can attrit at least ~1-2 jets per day in the air and inflict at least some effect on air ops from gulf and Jordan - we're talking. Heck, even 1 jet per 2 days is something, assuming operation drags into weeks and AA somehow lasts this long.
But otherwise - it doesn't add up very well, Iran is not Yemen, it'll hurt badly.
The problem is that SA isn't really responsible for what's happening. But SA will defend itself(aka attack Iran), and SA is protected by its new defensive alliance(with Pakistan). Making too many enemies when everything is already bleak isn't very sound.
And losers for such strikes will be SA and its clients, which is to a significant degree China. Iranian oil will also go away, and so likely rest of the gulf.
Shaheds were largely ineffective in June 2025. Granted, if Iran will start launching them in all directions, situation will change.
It isn't really about the Ayatollahs or regime change. Iran is a very conservative society, and like the Zionists, they also have a [religious] prophecy which is anti-Israel. Whoever replaces the Ayatollahs can only survive if they keep this anti-Israel motive a major priority. So, from a US-Israeli perspective, the only way to solve this issue is to turn Iran into another Iraq, Libya, or Syria who is too busy with internal chaos. Chaos is the goal, imho. Regional war and regional oil manufacture being hit is the collateral the US is weighing - here, Israel is defiant and wants to risk it; US doesn't. But US is also heavily infiltrated by Mossad with that pedo having dirt on every policy maker who isn't already Jewish.
Could you write more on this
Thanks mate
This is the kind of thing that also dispels the whole "its just Netanyahu and its cabinet".
Reuters: Iran is reportedly close to a deal with China to purchase CM‑302 anti‑ship cruise missiles, according to sources familiar with the negotiations, as the US deploys a large naval force near the Iranian coast ahead of possible strikes.
The supersonic missiles, with a range of about 290 kilometres and designed to evade shipborne defences, would significantly enhance Iran’s strike capabilities and pose a potential threat to US naval forces, experts said.
No delivery date has yet been agreed.
This is interesting news because it means that China is still willing to sell Iran weapons at a point where war is almost imminent
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Pretty sure the consensus for the 12 day Iran-Israel War that it was a overwhelming Israel victory, much of Iran Air Defenses were rendered useless due to sabotages and cyber attacks. Israel's setback during that conflict was their forces being stretched out too thin and not to mention the distance between both countries.
And regarding Iran's capability in engulfing the entire region into war is doubtful at best with much of its non-state allies being pretty much rendered immobile like Hezbollah and a more independent action instead of following Tehran's own directive like in both Houthis and the PMF. For Iranian ballistic missile capabilities, I don't really believe the official accounts from the state own media and the last war with Israel pretty much confirmed the unsustainable rate in which Iranian missiles have shown with ita comparative casualties between both Iran and Israel's own losses.
Let's say Iran has like 1,000 or 2,000 MRBMs. Both combine US and Israel's air force would tirelessly hunted down their TELs and full usage of Bunker Busters and Cruise Missiles towards its mountainous installations, sealing off its entrances temporarily or even permanently. This doesn't also mentioned the combined Anti-Air systems of both Israel and the US which further reduced the efficiency of Iranian missiles. Maybe 50-200 could have gotten through, even then most of their targets have already been evacuated and at best only caused minor or medium damages.
Compare this with the potential full blown US-Israel Air Supremacy and their rather lack of distinguishing both Military and Civilian targets, would undoubtedly cause a huge blow to the Iranian morale and especially to populace who had already shown disinterest in supporting the Islamic Republic itself.
And regarding Iran's capability in engulfing the entire region into war is doubtful at best with much of its non-state allies being pretty much rendered immobile like Hezbollah and a more independent action instead of following Tehran's own directive like in both Houthis and the PMF. For Iranian ballistic missile capabilities, I don't really believe the official accounts from the state own media and the last war with Israel pretty much confirmed the unsustainable rate in which Iranian missiles have shown with ita comparative casualties between both Iran and Israel's own losses.
Let's say Iran has like 1,000 or 2,000 MRBMs. Both combine US and Israel's air force would tirelessly hunted down their TELs and full usage of Bunker Busters and Cruise Missiles towards its mountainous installations, sealing off its entrances temporarily or even permanently. This doesn't also mentioned the combined Anti-Air systems of both Israel and the US which further reduced the efficiency of Iranian missiles. Maybe 50-200 could have gotten through, even then most of their targets have already been evacuated and at best only caused minor or medium damages.
Compare this with the potential full blown US-Israel Air Supremacy and their rather lack of distinguishing both Military and Civilian targets, would undoubtedly cause a huge blow to the Iranian morale and especially to populace who had already shown disinterest in supporting the Islamic Republic itself.
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