What do you guys think the US theory of victory is in this case? Do they foresee another Kosovo-like conflict where they bombed Serbia into submission, or another Syria-like conflict where they materially support a gradually strengthening insurgency (or rather a variety of insurgencies) while bombing Iran's key leadership institutions? Or alternatively, they'll try another Venezuela-like decapitation scenario?
Other than those, the most extreme option of executing this war - would be to use nuclear weapons. Since Iran doesn't actually have nukes or other WMDs to deter the U, & no other countries have (formally) provided them a nuclear umbrella, what's to stop the US from a campaign of nuclear bombing (e.g. 1 nuke a month on a major Iranian city) until the latter unconditionally surrenders to all US demands? Granted this is a war crime & is grotesque, but the US & Israel are obviously grotesque inhuman regimes who wouldn't care about ethics or norms.
If large-scale troops on the ground are off the table (which appears to be so at this point), what other options do you guys think are on the table, beyond the ones above?
Most likely an attempt at Venezuela 2.0 given the level of Mossad infiltration into the Iranian government and military. Failing that, a massive bombing campaign until either Iran surrenders, US runs out of ammunition, or Israel sues for peace after being hit with a large number of missiles. The US may be envisioning a Libya-style regime change, where direct attacks against IRGC and government targets eventually create the condition for a successful armed rebellion against the Ayatollah.
Theory I guess is that until now there were no downsides to bombing Iran. You can try kill it, and failing doesn't cost too much.
Iran is clearly struggling, and at some point nation may not unite around the flag. Or question Ayatollahs ability to protect nation, which is the most severe threat to legitimacy overall, and more so in Iranian history especially - on multiple famous historical occasions it was a legitimate reason for rebellions or else.
Iran, unlike most countries around, does have incredibly long their history, which people around there just know.
That is true. Israel and US military facilities neighbouring Iran will bear the blunt of any Iranian retaliation. Thus, there is little downside to the US itself aside from potential military casualities and destroyed equipment. US CBGs will likely launch attacks from the Omani coast, outside the effective range of most Iranian missiles. Even if US runs out of munition, it can always take a break, restock, and repeat. The length of the war only depend on the will of the Israeli leadership and society.
In fact, I would say that the impact of this war on the Indo-Pacific Command would not be significant, because most of the munitions the U.S. has deployed in Iran are unlikely to be effective in a conflict with China, such as JDAMs and Tomahawk missiles.
Attempting to intervene in the Taiwan war with the current military strength of the Central Command is a kamikaze mission.
The only thing that might have subsequent effects should be the depletion of the U.S. military's missile defense capability. But considering that systems like THAAD couldn’t survive more than three hours after the outbreak of a war in the Western Pacific, this isn’t really an issue worth worrying about.
If US does not use Tomahawk, what would they use? Aside from LRSAM in the low hundreds, Tomahawks are the only credible long-range offensive weapon at US disposal in large numbers. Likewise, if US depletes its PAC-2/3 and THAAD munition in a war against Iran, what are they going to use to defend their airbases, logistics and port installations against PLARF? Israeli air/missile defense systems are heavily reliant on US parts, which share the same production lines and subcomponents as their US counterparts. US Navy both around the Persian Gulf and Israeli waters will also be intercepting Iranian MRBMs, expending their limited SM-3 stockpile. Last of all, even if US itself does not intervene in AR, the depletion of these supplies would mean they will not be in the hands of ROCA, Japan, and South Korea.
