PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[latenlazy]

Whoever came up with this plan was a huge fan of the lurker drop from Brood War

Genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if this was the actual origin of the idea.

 

[latenlazy]

There are hubris from militaries either stuck in the past or in technologies~(code word for magic), but regrettably Berger missile marines is neither.
Annoying concept, which in all likelihood will have to be rooted out in detail, island after island.

I’m sure you can do some damage that way and be annoying about it. The problem is whether the idea generates the effective and sustained leverage you’d need to actually make a difference in the Pacific War. If the mass disparity in WestPac weren’t getting so absurd I’d think it would be less cute and laughable. But alas, we now live in a world where it’s very easy and cheap for China to blanket cover all the island footholds that one might go for to try this concept with a conveyor belt of drones that can loiter out of reach from MANPADS while spamming attack munitions as marines are trying to swim to safety.

 

[votran]

Their tactical theory is to use special forces to pry open corridors that they can flood missiles and planes through and use that momentary advantage to deal enough immediate damage to the rest of China's air defense and strike network try to level the playing field. It's a cute theory but requires a lot of things going right, especially with regards to taking positions and setting up without getting noticed and promptly fragged by an immediate counterstrike.

their plan is turn all small island connect taiwan to okinawa into small missile base pack with ready to launch mobile tomahawk , naval strike missile launcher
those mobile launcher and small missile base on tiny island not aim to last in case of being attack

the goal is to give china a dilemma :
1/ fire the first shot , launch a preemptive strike , easily destroy those missile kill US marines/japanese marines stations there....give US/japan the invalueable gift called " rally people under the The Sacred War flag" similar as operation barbarossa and pearl habor attack

2/ leave those island alone to avoid being the one trigger real ww3 and gave those tiny missile island benefit of "first shot advantage"

when that happen by the time china launch counter attack , those missile island already finish their job , launcher already empty , all the missile already head toward targets

 

[latenlazy]

their plan is turn all small island connect taiwan to okinawa into small missile base pack with ready to launch mobile tomahawk , naval strike missile launcher
those mobile launcher and small missile base on tiny island not aim to last in case of being attack

the goal is to give china a dilemma :
1/ fire the first shot , launch a preemptive strike , easily destroy those missile kill US marines/japanese marines stations there....give US/japan the invalueable gift called " rally people under the The Sacred War flag" similar as operation barbarossa and pearl habor attack

2/ leave those island alone to avoid being the one trigger real ww3 and gave those tiny missile island benefit of "first shot advantage"

when that happen by the time china launch counter attack , those missile island already finish their job , launcher already empty , all the missile already head toward targets

1 doesn’t matter because China has an overwhelming firepower advantage that is only increasing with time. When they decide its go time they will do the preemptive strike the moment the Pentagon so much as moves a plane to intervene, and if China gets that initiative it will cripple the ability for the Pentagon to gather sufficient forces in the theater in a timely enough fashion to keep their window for feasible win conditions open.

2 doesn’t matter because China has an overwhelming firepower advantage that is only increasing with time. If there was ever a situation where they did 2 they would already have tasked prompt strike options to get rid of those picket positions.

Your arguments need a lot more material analysis and a lot less fanfic writing.

 

[Phead128]

their plan is turn all small island connect taiwan to okinawa into small missile base pack with ready to launch mobile tomahawk , naval strike missile launcher
those mobile launcher and small missile base on tiny island not aim to last in case of being attack

the goal is to give china a dilemma :
1/ fire the first shot , launch a preemptive strike , easily destroy those missile kill US marines/japanese marines stations there....give US/japan the invalueable gift called " rally people under the The Sacred War flag" similar as operation barbarossa and pearl habor attack

2/ leave those island alone to avoid being the one trigger real ww3 and gave those tiny missile island benefit of "first shot advantage"

when that happen by the time china launch counter attack , those missile island already finish their job , launcher already empty , all the missile already head toward targets

Missiles alone cannot win a war. Also, US needs zero justification if it really wanted to defend Taiwan. Basically, what I am reading is, US is posturing for a tiny advantage for an already lost war, or US has no political willpower hence a sacrificial token tripwire force to garner support. Either way, its a losing proposition and optimizing a losing scenario.

 

[votran]

1 doesn’t matter because China has an overwhelming firepower advantage that is only increasing with time. When they decide its go time they will do the preemptive strike the moment the Pentagon so much as moves a plane to intervene, and if China gets that initiative it will cripple the ability for the Pentagon to gather sufficient forces in the theater in a timely enough fashion to keep their window for feasible win conditions open.

2 doesn’t matter because China has an overwhelming firepower advantage that is only increasing with time. If there was ever a situation where they did 2 they would already have tasked prompt strike options to get rid of those picket positions.

Your arguments need a lot more material analysis and a lot less fanfic writing.

sorry but im not chinese or citizen of any big superpower nation to have a habit of underestimate the "rally under scared war" effect in a freaking ww3 situation like confict around taiwan

anyway your prediction sound just like many german and japanese before they attack soviet union and US =))

 

[manqiangrexue]

sorry but im not chinese or citizen of any big superpower nation to have a habit of underestimate the "rally under scared war" effect in a freaking ww3 situation like confict around taiwan

Your nationality has nothing to do with your estimate of the "rally under a sacred war" effect. The US and Japan are 2 countries that think war with China is already justified. They are held back by their fears, not their morals.

anyway your prediction sound just like many german and japanese before they attack soviet union and US =))

If Germany and Japan had ASMBs or were the size (physically and in terms of production capability) of the US nation instead of an American state, the US would have had no chance at all against either of them.

 

[bsdnf]

their plan is turn all small island connect taiwan to okinawa into small missile base pack with ready to launch mobile tomahawk , naval strike missile launcher
those mobile launcher and small missile base on tiny island not aim to last in case of being attack

the goal is to give china a dilemma :
1/ fire the first shot , launch a preemptive strike , easily destroy those missile kill US marines/japanese marines stations there....give US/japan the invalueable gift called " rally people under the The Sacred War flag" similar as operation barbarossa and pearl habor attack

2/ leave those island alone to avoid being the one trigger real ww3 and gave those tiny missile island benefit of "first shot advantage"

when that happen by the time china launch counter attack , those missile island already finish their job , launcher already empty , all the missile already head toward targets

Do you think the PLA would waste its first shot here? It would be in Yokosuka, Naha, , Kadena and Guam. Either don't give gifts, or give a generous one.

Americans can wave what they consider their "sacred war flag" as they please, but definitely not for these weak meat tripwires

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

anyway your prediction sound just like many german and japanese before they attack soviet union and US =))

Actually no, sounds like you dont know your WW2 history as well. Japanese military leadership knew that they had at most a year before they lose any hope of victory against the US, and German high command understood what a huge gamble attacking the USSR was (many German commanders tried to disaude Hitler from launching Barbarossa). Both Germany and Japan found themselves in the ineviable position of knowing that the odds were stacked against them, but having no other choice but to attack when they did.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

With ground forces on a tiny island?

Correct!!!

The new doctrine developed for the USMC, which mandates these LSMs, focuses on deploying independent units of the force in support of the US Navy (secondarily, the USAF) in an attempt to contain or degrade Chinese naval capabilities in the Pacific in case of conflict.

To summarize quite simply, anyone knows that China has built an entire navy and an anti-access and area denial system off its coast to prevent entry. The US wants to have the capability to build an anti-access and area denial system so that the Chinese navy does not go far from its coast in case of conflict. Containment… The LSMs are merely a means of transport and support.

In other words, the Marines will no longer be the force that performs a forced amphibious entry into contested environments; they will bypass these contested territories and land on remote islands to deploy anti-ship systems, creating an anti-access zone for the PLAN.

Amphibious Assault
Operational Maneuver From The Sea: OMFTS
Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations: EABO

Amphibious Assault: This is the classic scenario, where the USMC would be employed as a force aiming for a massive and concentrated attack to capture a beachhead, opening space for a larger force: the US Army. This is where the large support assets they have in the Ready Reserve Force would come in, for example… The USMC's objective is not to "hold the ground."

OMFTS: A rapid and massive operation with large units (like the brigade below), where the USMC maneuvers by kicking down the door, conquering different objectives, which can be both on the beach and inland. Hence the great focus on aircraft, for example.

EABO: Dispersed operations with a large number of small units that can support the US Navy and USAF and degrade or even contain the movements and advance of Chinese forces in the Pacific.

The USMC doesn't want to carry out what they call a "forced entry" into the Pacific. Why? Because more than anyone, they understand the risks. That's where the EABO came from. The LSM is merely a means of transport and support for this doctrine.

The objective is not to take a beach defended by Chinese troops with these means. They will land on a beach and disembark a unit equipped with systems and weapons to harass Chinese forces. Primarily those that could be used to take that particular beach. In other words: the one who would have to carry out a forced entry, operating against A2/AD systems, would be China!

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6.4.3.3 Medium Landing Ship Employment
The LSM and NGLS support the day-to-day maneuver of stand-in forces operating in the LOA. It complements larger amphibious warfare ships and other surface connectors. Utilizing the LSM to transport forces reduces the impacts of tactical vehicles on the road network, increases deception, and allows for the sustainment of forces during embarkation. The range, endurance, and austere access of LSMs enable the littoral force to deliver personnel, equipment, and sustainment across a widely distributed area.

LOA: Littoral Operations Area.

As envisioned and when properly postured, LSMs possess the range, endurance, speed, seakeeping, and C4ISR capabilities to support and conduct complementary operations with, but not as part of, U.S. Navy tactical groups, including an ESG or amphibious ready group (ARG). Forward-positioned LSMs may augment the capabilities of deploying ARG/MEUs during regional engagement and response to crises or contingencies. Experimentation must help planners understand the competing needs for rapid maneuver and the ability to provide tactical level sustainment from the sea.