Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't having two simultaneous next-gen fighter programmes at a similar state of development and in EMD with the aim for both to reach service a novel situation?
We've all seen the analogies to the YF-22 vs YF-23 prototype flyoff and X-32 and X-35 tech demonstrator flyoff, but in both cases there was always only the intent for one design to be selected for mass production and service. This is directly mirrored by the CAC J-20 and SAC J-XX (J-21?) competition, although there was no flyoff as is the Chinese MIC style. In the US, the winning design would still take on the losing design's manufacturer as a secondary partner for production of airframe components and subsystems, effectively sharing their MIC talent pool even if only one manufacturer won the main contract.
For the F-22 and F-35, the latter was only seriously developed after completion of the former, allowing critical MIC talents to shift between the two design teams, especially since they belonged to the same manufacturer. For the J-20 and J-35, the story was similar, except I suppose they were designed by different bureaus (but were under the same state-run umbrella organisation, so the talent pool could be shared).
But the J-XDC and J-XDS are different. We're seeing milestones being hit by both programmes (fuel dumping tests, pitot tube removal, perhaps even exhaust changes with J-XDS to mirror the obvious ones we see with J-XDC) merely months or weeks apart, and both seem to continue developing in parallel. Either they're still before final selection, or both programmes aim to produce a service product.
I understand that the YF-22 vs YF-23, X-32 vs X-35 and J-20 vs J-21 are all examples of competing designs for the same role and not directly comparable to F-22/F-35 and J-20/J-35, but even so there has not been a case of two next-gen fighter programmes of different roles/weight-classes being developed in parallel and at comparable stages. F-22 -> F-35 and J-20 -> J-35 were developed sequentially.
I bring this up because I believe we have underestimated China's military aviation MIC talent pool in the 2020s. Even during the height of American power, they still developed their next-gen fighters sequentially (F-15 in 1972, F-16 in 1974, F-22 in 1990, F-35 in 2006), suggesting they only had sufficient "critical mass" of talents in the MIC to complete one programme at a time, a situation that was reflected by China in the 2010s (J-20 in 2011, J-35 in 2021). Unless Chinese engineers are working on J-XDC at day and J-XDS by night, it suggests that nowadays there are a lot more talents in the industry. The closest period of the American MIC was the F-15/F-16 era, since there was some years of overlapping parallel development but still remained a few years staggered.
I don't want to jump the gun, but if this is true, it means historical analogies become less useful for future predictions (especially of development timelines) since we may already be seeing the most expansive (in terms of number of critical individuals, i.e., "talents") military aviation MIC the world has ever seen. Chinese 6th-gen may actually reach IOC in a shorter timeframe than it took J-20/J-35. I personally wouldn't bet on it yet, but the evidence is becoming compelling. Perhaps IOC by Mao's birthday in December 2029?
