Not sure if this stretching too far. If combined with the Nexperia case, the US, EU, and their allies have found another one of China’s soft spots: Chinese government and companies’ overseas assets. It is true that should they arbitrarily seize these assets, China’s own military power at the moment has yet (and will likely never become) to be able to recover them by force. Expect more overseas Chinese workers to be massacred and their companies’ properties seized driven by an unknown ‘black hand’. There would be no PLAN wolf warriors because PLA is not a global force. It is simply not capable of protecting China’s overseas assets and personnel beyond China’s periphery.
At the age of Anglo-Saxon-led globalisation of the 80s and 90s, protection of private property and ownership rights were sacrosanct. That meant if a Chinese company were to legally purchase a plot of land in the US, the Feds and States couldn’t simply seize it. Things have now changed.
Since Orange just declared a return to the 19th Century might makes right Westphalian international system (meaning anything arbitrary is possible in a black jungle), is Beijing prepared to face all of its trading partners becoming predators? Does China have nonviolent means to fight back (besides rare earth) in the upcoming waves of arbitrary seizures and trade exclusions (think of a US, EU, and Japan led global Chinese Exclusion Act)?
If not, would full militarisation (before Chinese population ages after 2035) and necessary military campaigns (against neighbours aligned with adversaries) to establish hegemony in East & South Asia be the only options left when facing global Chinese exclusion? The goal of campaigns would be to use force to secure near abroad markets and carve out a genuine sphere of influence where Chinese products and rules (along with other privileges for China) dominate. Such campaigns could be waged with the assumptions that Washington and Paris ( or even New Delhi) would not risk full nuclear holocaust against China over its allies on the region, and that they would be forced to negotiate a ‘dignified’ withdrawal akin to US withdrawal from Vietnam. But this would require China to achieve significant conventional superiority whilst maintaining robust and credible nuclear counterattack capabilities. The most recent US NSS clearly articulated that the only way for the US to prevent Chinese hegemony in Asia is through the conventional superiority of the combined forces of the US and its allies. But given China’s industrial capacity and America’s deindustrialisation, it would be an arms race in which China has a chance of winning. The only thing lacking is political will, particularly among China’s elites who dream of returning to western markets if Beijing could simply make more concessions to the ‘civilised Anglo gentlemen’.
It appears that China could be facing something Germany and Japan faced in the 1930s. To conquer or be conquered (in China’s case, be embargoed and isolated until it becomes a bigger version of Iran and collapse), unless Beijing figures out a way to fight back and break the containment.