PiSigma
"the engineer"
Lame. How will you become a true banana republic without growing bananas
Trump 2.0 official thread
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
- Start date
Isn't it hilarious when someone who fancies himself a historian of 19th century European geopolitics tries to treat that all as analogous to modern geopolitics, and then actually doesn't know a damn thing about the current balance of military industrial capacity, fiscal/financial capacity, and costs to produce? If we're going to insist on using historical analogies, China today, technologically, industrially, and militarily, is like post-WW2 US, having opportunistically come out on top in a massive war. Historically, that would be WW2 for US, but tech war, cold war, trade war, financial war, bio war, cyber war, and spy war for China today. The US today is more like pre-WW2 UK. In a fiscally and financially tenuous position and on the verge of a black swan setting off a massive geopolitical retrenchment. This has arguably already begun, but one could argue the current US over-investment in and under-performance (revenues, profits, meaningful productive implementation) from the AI bubble is another potential financial crisis in the making. Even OpenAI's $200/month subscription is loss-making. They gain 1 dollar for every 7.5 they spend, and that's not counting the ridiculous $1.5 trillion in capital expenditures they have already signed up to. Not to mention their LLM fucking sucks. After having used ChatGPT, Grok, Deepseek, Qwen, Kimi, Z.ai, etc., it's clear to me that among them all the most prone to "hallucinations", aka being stupid and wrong, is ChatGPT. You really can't trust a single damn thing it tells you, and half the citations are misinterpreted or entirely irrelevant to the question and answer.
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You forgot the third pillar. Strategic nuclear power. If push comes to shove, no country will sacrifice their own major population centers to "avenge" Tokyo, Kyoto and Osaka. A huge reason why the US was the preeminent global power post WW2 was simply that they showed that they were psychotic enough to unleash weapons of mass destruction on civilian population centers. Where is the so called "taboo" that resulted in the US being ostracized from the global "community"? Yet to be seen. With the current global reliance on China for almost the entirety of their consumption, full stop, I argue that hypothetical 1MT+ strikes on any surrounding threats in the event of a shooting war would NOT result in pariah status for China, past a year or two of initial shock. As the US has proven over and over and over again, it's always way more actualized to ask for forgiveness after the fact rather than permission before.
China is the equivalent of the Roman empire of Europe, or if Germany unified the European continent. You can't compare a massive continental size power like China with a small country like Kaiser Germany. China is no longer the Qin dynasty in Warring states period where it's surrounded by roughly similar size/power neighbors, China is a colossus in terms of territory and population compared to all of its neighbor except perhaps India which itself is hobbled by innumerable issues.
In all seriousness, India will most likely instigate a border war to capture territory if China is preoccupied in the Pacific
China will need to contend with a two front war, as well as war against Japan, Philippines and possibly South Korea.
US social media and general media control of those countries have made them hate China even while the US bitch slaps them.
Is chja prepare for that eventuality ?
Well, you can’t compare China’s defence expenditure as percentage of GDP to western countries. China has an internal security budget that is higher than those for the PLA. That’s because China unique history in the past 200 years resulted in many unresolved internal frozen conflicts (Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, religions, hanjians, etc.) along with new ones (radical feminists funded by the west, online narrative warfare, Chinese ‘journalists’ propagating western narratives without directly violating Chinese law, corporate and financial elites working on behalf of western interests, etc.). When combining the PLA’s budget with those spent on internal security, you have a roughly 4% similar to those of US.
Given what we saw with Pakistan's Chinese export weapons vs India, both India and Philippines can be defeated by less than 1% of Chinese forces. Japan and South Korea are inferior to Israel, and Iran could fight Israel to a draw with Iran standing in the stronger position afterwards. So unless your logic is that China is roughly only 50% stronger than Iran, even this bandwagon you describe can be defeated in a worst case scenario without needing to resort to tactical nuclear weapons. Also, if South Korea mobilizes, it's likely you'd see North Korea make a move. Likewise for if India mobilizes, you'd see Pakistan make a move. Philippines and Japan are the only ones not fully hedged against. Philippines is too weak and poor to fight, and Japan is within range of even short range Chinese missiles, preserving the medium and long range ones for use against US forces. In reality, the only real forces coming out of Philippines would be US forces.
If you're going to compare apples to apples, then you should factor in US DOJ, FBI, and ICE budgets into their "internal security" budget as well then, given how they're being wielded in much the same way these days.
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- Department of Defense (DOD): The FY 2025 budget request was approximately $850 billion in base discretionary funding. The total national defense top line (which includes defense-related activities in other agencies like the Department of Energy) for FY 2024 was $883.7 billion.
- Department of Homeland Security (DHS):The President's FY 2025 budget request for DHS was approximately $107.9 billion in total budget authority, of which $62.2 billion was net discretionary funding.
- Department of Justice (DOJ): The Department of Justice spent approximately $44 billion in total outlays in FY 2024, ranking 14th among federal agencies in total spending. While a total FY 2025 figure is not explicitly stated in the sources, its budget is in the tens of billions, far less than the DOD's.