Chengdu next gen combat aircraft (?J-36)

[Andy1974]

In this stream, Yankee was imply that 36011's caret intake was done for two reasons:

1. CAC has always wanted to give caret intake a try, if nothing else to get a hands on feel for aerodynamic and RCS characteristics of these intakes. Though unless caret intake turns out to be much better than CAC's estimation they've always perferred DSI.

2. They were judging that NGAD/F-47 prototype would fly sometime towards the middle of this year. Since caret intake was a much simpler arrangement than DSI 36011 could be ready for maiden flight much earlier than 36022, thus beating the Americans to the line.

Point 2 turned out to be too optimistic in terms of US 6th gen development, but their own estimation on when the two prototypes were correct. If indeed they only went for 36022 and the Americans worked as fast as their estimation then F-47 would have beaten J-36 for maiden flight.

Yankee said DSI is much more complicated than people realize and even for CAC, designing a completely new one for a new plane takes time. J-20's DSI is not just a fixed piece but actually has an adjustable component to it. However he has yet to observe anyone outside of China coming close to correctly guessing now the adjustability is done.

Forgive me, but I am gonna take a crack at this…
The DSI bump could be expanded and contracted by air pressure, like bubble gum.

 

[iewgnem]

It is interesting to note that this implies that they are indeed paying a lot of attention to and attempting beat the timelines of the American project, contrary to some posters on this forum who claim otherwise (that they are proceeding "purely" on their own pace without regard for the progress on F-47).

USAF Kendal said last year he hoped NGAD would fly a month before China's 6th gen, I guess China took that as "NAGD" will fly next year, we better hurry, while Americans actually thought "Chinese 6th gen wont fly until 2028"

 

[mack8]

2024 is too short notice to affect J-36's schedule, what i think happened was China found out about the NGAD demonstrators that flew from 2019-2020, and based on the timing from previous programs such as F-22 or F-35, they estimated the US EMD NGAD might fly in 2025. So the J-50 and J-36 programs, probably formally initiated at roughly the same time, had as one of the goals flying by end 2024 to beat the americans, which they've done brilliantly.

 

[00CuriousObserver]

But wouldn't 36021 be much more reasonable? As such the first aircraft of the second variant? ... 36022 would mean there are already two of this sub-type or the numbers are totally random!

Perhaps, we should just wait and see.

 

[PiSigma]

Forgive me, but I am gonna take a crack at this…
The DSI bump could be expanded and contracted by air pressure, like bubble gum.

And how much pressure do you think that is?

 

[TheWanderWit]

USAF Kendal said last year he hoped NGAD would fly a month before China's 6th gen, I guess China took that as "NAGD" will fly next year, we better hurry, while Americans actually thought "Chinese 6th gen wont fly until 2028"

Do you know where I can read this statement?

 

[latenlazy]

Do you know where I can read this statement?

Hah the Americans succeeded in headfaking China into wasting resources joke’s on China!

 

[iewgnem]

Do you know where I can read this statement?

The US Air Force needs to “make sure we get to six-gen air dominance at least a month prior to our competitors,” Kelly said.

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Was Mark Kelly, head of USAF Air Combat Command, September 2022
Two years between Sept 2022 and Dec 2024, so there is theoretically enough time for China to accelerate things a bit on this info.

 

[lushangdao]

we should just wait and see

 

[Temstar]

2024 is too short notice to affect J-36's schedule, what i think happened was China found out about the NGAD demonstrators that flew from 2019-2020, and based on the timing from previous programs such as F-22 or F-35, they estimated the US EMD NGAD might fly in 2025. So the J-50 and J-36 programs, probably formally initiated at roughly the same time, had as one of the goals flying by end 2024 to beat the americans, which they've done brilliantly.

I listened to the Guacha stream again and Ayi added to the conversation after regarding the NGAD demonstrators. He's opinion was the NGAD demonstrators must have been very preliminary. Something like a modern day F-15 ACTIVE:

Were they took an existing plane and changed its planform to test out aspects of 6th gen aerodynamics.

His reasoning was:

1. If the demonstrator were more mature and visually looked distinctive enough to pass for danger dorito 6th gen mental image that people are expecting then they would have shown it off by now, if not before Chinese 6th gen maiden flight.

2. CAC probably made their estimation of maiden flight by mid 2025 based on the assumption that the NGAD demonstrator was of similar maturity to their own demonstrator, and then they extrapolated the timeline and arrived at the mid 2025 date. The fact that the Americans haven't flew their 6th gen means either they're incompetent (which you should not assume) or the demonstrator was further away from actual 6th gen than CAC's own demonstrator.