China's SCS Strategy Thread

lcloo

Major
"Why does anyone care what the little Red Dot think? The vast majority of Singaporeans definitely don't.

The Western bloc likes to make Singapore significant, thinking that it will be the goat that leads ASEAN down the western path but to be honest, the rest of ASEAN also doesn't care what Singapore has to say. Take for instance the sanction against Russia for the Ukraine SMO - SG took the lead, nobody followed :cool:

We all know SG dances to the tune of the US while trying to not. It is harder now than in LKY time given how the economy is tied to the western financial system and it's defence equipment is largely US sourced. Breaking away from those chains will take a seismic shift and many many years of careful maneuvering.

Meantime, just ignore SG like the rest of ASEAN does. ;)"


That is very true.

I remember back in the 1970s/1980s, Singaparoe made it known that they were not rushing to recognise PRC as the representative of China due to the suspicions of neighboring countries, especially Indonesia and Malaysia, that Singapore might be pro-China because the main population of Singapore are ethnic Chinese. The untold potential threat to Singapore has always been the anti-communist Muslim majority countries like Malaysia and Indonesia, although on the surface everyone denied it, and cite improving good relationship.

Singapore waited until 1990 and became the last ASEAN country to establish diplomatic relationship and recognised PRC as the China.

The military bond with US was largedly to gain access to advance weapons and bring in USA as deterence to the dark and untold ambitions of neighbouring countries. Singapore's ruling PAP (People's Action Party) started as a Socialist political party, they were acused of being communists or communist supporters when they were part of Malaysia Federation.

Present day Singapore is trying to be neutral between China and USA but their 4 or 5 decades long bonding with USA has no doubt creating subtle bias in favour of USA, especially use of English and access to western media is prominent in Singapore.
 
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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
"Why does anyone care what the little Red Dot think? The vast majority of Singaporeans definitely don't.

The Western bloc likes to make Singapore significant, thinking that it will be the goat that leads ASEAN down the western path but to be honest, the rest of ASEAN also doesn't care what Singapore has to say. Take for instance the sanction against Russia for the Ukraine SMO - SG took the lead, nobody followed :cool:

We all know SG dances to the tune of the US while trying to not. It is harder now than in LKY time given how the economy is tied to the western financial system and it's defence equipment is largely US sourced. Breaking away from those chains will take a seismic shift and many many years of careful maneuvering.

Meantime, just ignore SG like the rest of ASEAN does. ;)"


That is very true.

I remember back in the 1970s/1980s, Singaparoe made it known that they were not rushing to recognise PRC as the representative of China due to the suspicions of neighboring countries, especially Indonesia and Malaysia, that Singapore might be pro-China because the main population of Singapore are ethnic Chinese. The untold potential threat to Singapore has always been the anti-communist Muslim majority countries like Malaysia and Indonesia, although on the surface everyone denied it, and cite improving good relationship.

Singapore waited until 1990 and became the last ASEAN country to establish diplomatic relationship and recognised PRC as the China.

The military bond with US was largedly to gain access to advance weapons and bring in USA as deterence to the dark and untold ambitions of neighbouring countries. Singapore's ruling PAP (People's Action Party) started as a Socialist political party, they were acused of being communists or communist supporters when they were part of Malaysia Federation.

Present day Singapore is trying to be neutral between China and USA but their 4 or 5 decades long bonding with USA has no doubt creating subtle bias in favour of USA, especially use of English and access to western media is prominent in Singapore.
The interview by the PM indicated Singapore has decided to go all the way with the US.
 

lcloo

Major
The interview by the PM indicated Singapore has decided to go all the way with the US.
The speeches were mainly written using AI like Chatgpt, a western AI, if they used DeepSeek, it might be written differently. I have no doubt on their inclination in favour of US and following US world view. But bear in mind that their bonding with US is to deter Malaysia and Indonesia, not anti-China.

If there is a war between China and USA, i am very sure Singapore will stay neutral. Their current stance is notably pro-USA because most of their elites in politics and military have US educations or US military training background. However, they would not dare to fight China for USA, simply because they know too well the power of China, as their first prime minister the late Mr. Lee Kuan Yew had always told the World.

I am from Malaysia, and very familiar with relationships of South East Asian countries, especially Malaysia and Singapore. I also have family relatives and firends/classmates in both countries.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
The speeches were mainly written using AI like Chatgpt, a western AI, if they used DeepSeek, it might be written differently. I have no doubt on their inclination in favour of US and following US world view. But bear in mind that their bonding with US is to deter Malaysia and Indonesia, not anti-China.

If there is a war between China and USA, i am very sure Singapore will stay neutral. Their current stance is notably pro-USA because most of their elites in politics and military have US educations or US military training background. However, they would not dare to fight China for USA, simply because they know too well the power of China, as their first prime minister the late Mr. Lee Kuan Yew had always told the World.

I am from Malaysia, and very familiar with relationships of South East Asian countries, especially Malaysia and Singapore. I also have family relatives and firends/classmates in both countries.
It’s an interview, not a speech
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

PeaceKrieger424

New Member
Registered Member
bonding with US is to deter Malaysia and Indonesia
Like both Malaysia and Indonesia precure US defese equipment, fighters etc meaning Singapore won't be outbuying the numbers procured by the other two countires. And given that there has been no spat between Indonesia/Malaysia vs. Singapore in what last 6 decades, why this need of deterrence?
 

lcloo

Major
Like both Malaysia and Indonesia precure US defese equipment, fighters etc meaning Singapore won't be outbuying the numbers procured by the other two countires. And given that there has been no spat between Indonesia/Malaysia vs. Singapore in what last 6 decades, why this need of deterrence?
It is a very long history. You have to make a research from the days the British took over Singapore and Malaya, the Malayan Emergency, the "confrontation", to the Malaysia's ex-PM, Dr Mahathir's personnal view on Singapore and so on. And also why Singapore do not promote ethnic Malays to high ranking military officials in their armed forces.

Also, some ethnic Malays chauvinist in Malaysia still hold the thought that Singapore ( a land formerly belonged to Malay sultanate) should be returned as a Malay Land, Tanah Melayu, instead of being controlled by immigrants from 18th and 19th century China.

On the Indonesia side, there might be some people still thinking of uniting a "greater Indonesia" nation that shall include Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei and part of Southern Philippines. Althought people holding this idea is very small but you never be sure it will not be re-surfaced, as racial and religious sentiment can suddently explode like ISIS, especially against the ethnic Chinese in this part of the World.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
The speeches were mainly written using AI like Chatgpt, a western AI, if they used DeepSeek, it might be written differently. I have no doubt on their inclination in favour of US and following US world view. But bear in mind that their bonding with US is to deter Malaysia and Indonesia, not anti-China.

If there is a war between China and USA, i am very sure Singapore will stay neutral. Their current stance is notably pro-USA because most of their elites in politics and military have US educations or US military training background. However, they would not dare to fight China for USA, simply because they know too well the power of China, as their first prime minister the late Mr. Lee Kuan Yew had always told the World.

I am from Malaysia, and very familiar with relationships of South East Asian countries, especially Malaysia and Singapore. I also have family relatives and firends/classmates in both countries.

Lee Kuan Yew also publicly mused that China would likely displace the US (militarily and economically) in the Western Pacific, and gave this an 80% probability of happening.

No senior official in Singapore can be unaware of this.

And they can see with their own eyes what is happening in China.
 
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Heliox

Junior Member
Registered Member
The interview by the PM indicated Singapore has decided to go all the way with the US.
It’s an interview, not a speech
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This interview that you linked?
Where does the PM "indicate that Singapore has decided to go all the way with the US"?

"many of us would like to create space for us to have autonomy, to make our own choices, and not to be forced to choose sides"

"ASEAN as a whole, we have taken a clear position that we want to engage all the major powers. We reject dominance by any single power and zero-sum competition."


His comments in the interview are very much politically correct middle of the road, that we want to maintain our autonomy in a complex multi-polar world. Note that he also adds that "We are not an (US) ally, we are a Major Security Cooperation Partner."

His position on Taiwan is likewise middle of the road - "(US wants to) deter China from invasion. And there is certainly some value in that, and it is certainly important. At the same time, there should also be attention paid to deterring moves towards independence. Because this is China's reddest of red lines. It is a matter of sovereignty for China"

In any case, this sidebar on SG is quite off topic for this thread, so I'll put in a thought to try to bring it tenuously back on topic ...

Interesting that the WSJ fielded a pointed question on SG's arsenal of US weapons and if there was concern about "the sovereign limits that come with US weapons". PM Wong's answer is very pointed - "It has not been an issue up till now." That is as close to saying that it causes us nightmares without saying so in diplo-speak.

Look, Singapore's focus is very much on it's neighbours, or rather, the threat it's neighbours pose.
Singapore's defence posture and choice of hardware is very much to achieve superiority to neighbouring threat matrixes. Alignment with great power struggles is way down low on the list of priorities - any perceived current alignment is due to over reliance on US equipment and the resultant vulnerability to coercion from US foreign policy due to such reliance.

Would Singapore prefer to be non-reliant? For sure.
SG military gear is not totally US centric.
On the Army side, a lot of primary platforms are homegrown.
On the Navy side, it is (not) surprisingly Euro centric.
On the Air Force side however, up till recently, there has been no game in town other than US military hardware, especially when it comes to kitting out an armed force for IKC2. The SG buy-in into the F-35 program was as early as 2003. The procurement of F-15s, 2005 and the G550 AEW in 2007.
Would China have been able to provide a similar level of assistance back in the 00's?
That is the crux of the SG dependance on US MIC due to the backbone of the IKC2 network being heavily dependent on US hardware primarily in the air but also for ground sensors.

Would China be able to bring Singapore into it's orbit now - 20 years down from the 00s?
Note that any attempt to buy into high-end non-US "approved" gear will also probably result in being blackballed by the US, see Turkey F-35 program as an example, which may cause the entire web of IKC2 platforms to start falling apart.
As such, any adoption of key Chinese equipment will have to be done in a wholesale manner rather than incremental. Meaning an accelerated program of platform replacements since US support will be withdrawn quite quickly for any remaining platforms once past a tipping point of SG going into the enemy's camp - current timeline is F-16s in 2030s by F-35s, F-15s in 2040s by F/J-?? and F-35s in 2050ish by goodness knows what. Given the volume of hardware in a very short space of time, it will require discounted pricing, very generous loans and interest rates.
Adding on to that, Singapore needs to maintain qualitative superiority over the regional battlespace and so, if the neighbours have J-10s, it will require China to offer up at least J-20/35 or even the NG platforms as well as no -E munitions.

Will China be willing to take the above steps and is it even in China's interest to have SG as a military partner given that it may make it harder to bring key ASEAN members into the same orbit (due to the adversarial nature of relations between Singapore and Malaysia and possibly Indonesia as well?

Do note that just as China took years to prepare itself to disengage from the US, it will take a long time for Singapore to prepare itself for the shitstorm that will inevitably come once it signals it's leaning to the other side, eg. potentially being disconnected from the Western financial and banking system. So far from the dick-ish little Red Dot, it is simply a pawn trying to stay alive in this fight between giants.

I will agree that China has been kind enough to understand the current hole that history has dug for SG and not push for a "with us or against us" rubbish that we get from the US. Were that the world returns to not too long ago where the US either isn't interested in SG or that there is true dual/multi-polarity, you will likely see Singapore be more like the SG of LKY's tenure in terms of where we stand.
 
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