If you take China out of the picture, the American project of "full spectrum dominance" looks to be travelling just about ok. There are significant issues to be sure, but also significant new opportunities to leverage American capital and technology to further extend and entrench American supremacy: chiefly low-cost space launch paradigms and the possibilities offered by the burgeoning "A.I." industry, particularly those that promise to render the firehose of data that is collected from the global connected world (already largely dominated by the United States) more intelligible and actionable. In the medium-term at least, only China presents as a major obstacle to America's pursuit of full spectrum dominance, with Russia and perhaps certain other nations playing far more limited negating roles, mostly within their own borders. But that's a little like saying that only major obstacle to the pursuit of immortality is death. What does the American quest for full spectrum dominance even mean if it doesn't apply to China?
Today's American leaders and thinkers have spent most of their professional careers in the post-Cold War era, where the relative power of the United States was at its peak and messianic visions abounded; the commitment to "full spectrum dominance" emerges from this era. So far as I can tell, the term "air dominance" (as distinct from now quaint notions of "air superiority") comes not out of the Cold War, not even the earlier years of the ATF program, but rather out of Desert Storm and the intoxicated visions for the future exercise of American technologically-infused hyperpower that followed. See the
by then-Secretary of Defense William Perry. That level of ambition survives in today's "Next Generation Air Dominance" program.
This post-Cold War vision of leveraging incomparable American technology to create "full spectrum dominance", thereby providing America's undoubtedly wise and virtuous leaders with the prospect of achieving victory anywhere in the world without significant losses, is juxtaposed awkwardly with the increasingly undeniable and uncomfortable realities of China. The capability side of things is a mixed bag: making F-35 the centrepiece of an entire generation of airpower development has clearly not paid off to the extent that was envisioned (which is not to say that it has been a complete failure either); conversely, the B-21 Raider appears to be an unusually astute program that has clearly been tailored to China scenarios and embraced real compromises to deliver on what matters: signatures and range, and cost and therefore inventory numbers. The more fundamental issues are on the requirements side.
Full spectrum dominance relies on maintaining overwhelming qualitative or quantitative advantages (preferably both) across many axes of capability simultaneously, in any given theatre. This is increasingly untenable in relation to China and its near abroad, and no amount of acquisition reform or remaining incremental technological advantages are going to bridge that gap. The prospect of the United States greatly increasing its level of
defense war spending is an interesting hypothetical, but shows no sign of happening and is probably politically untenable. History is replete with rulers who, intoxicated by their previous success, failed to recognise the point at which their reach exceeded their grasp, often with unpleasant results, and the Americans have for many generations now been high on their own supply. If one were to declare that, at some undefined point in the future, China must be capable of exercising "full spectrum dominance" in the Florida Strait on behalf of Cuba, that would rightly be dismissed as a complete fantasy, irrespective of how accomplished China's MIC may become. You wouldn't blame PLAN, PLAAF, CAC or whomever for failing to achieve that objective, but the folks above them who thought it at all feasible in the first place.
Today, the entrenched ideas and personages of the past sit awkwardly alongside more sporadic, incremental and begrudged acknowledgements of the present and accommodations to the future. In periods of transition, tension, dissonance and even incoherence are to be expected. The real question, one that confronts all societies, is the extent to which uncomfortable ideas and reforms can be embraced
before capital-H History intervenes to force the issue. Recent
that the United States may de-prioritise China in favour of reinforcing its dominion over the western hemisphere are therefore quite intriguing.