2025 Israel - Iranian conflict
- Thread starter Maikeru
- Start date
There are only two viable solutions in this situation.
A) Develop nukes and hunker down to become another “hermit state” like North Korea, accepting the complete alienation of the West
B) Embrace the West and try to get sanctions removed to build up a functional economy and military
Iran chose neither and relied on half-measures, and this is the end result. You cannot threaten to build nukes and not go through with it, because your adversaries will strike before you do if you give them that opportunity. Threatening to build nukes is not a deterrent, actually having them is. On the other hand, if you’re afraid of the economic sanctions going down this path entails, Iran could have also fully embraced the West and tried to get sanctions removed. But in both cases, Iran only took half-steps, and they ended up getting the worst of both worlds. Their approachment with the west led to the JCPOA, pausing their nuclear program just for Trump to tear it up and for Biden to forget about it. They basically gave nuclear concessions for nothing. Similarly, their steps toward nuclearization clearly weren’t serious and were more towards being a “deterrent”, but what the regime doesnt understand is threatening to build nukes is not a deterrent by itself, only when you actually do have them can you pose a credible challenge to Israel. In fact, their half steps but not full nuclearization policy likely precipitated this Israeli aggression. The only thing stopping it before was the Iranian proxies and missile threat. And now that Israel has severely weakened the ballistic missile threat that Iran posed as well and removed its proxies, Iran has no cards left to play. They hesitated, they wavered, they tried to have both worlds and they were punished for it. This is the end result. Indecision and weakness will always be punished by your adversaries.
It seems that Iran hasn't launched any missiles yet. Are they gonna loose all the launch capacity like Hezbollah? At this point, it's either use it or loose it i guess.
I feel like today modern technology and methods make things very fast and effective which completely changed pacing.
In the past even if you lacked the latest technology or methods you could still win by grinding it out eventually.
Today however if you try that, you will quickly get crushed by the opponents modern tech and methods. At least in conventional warfare. Holding an advantage is much harder but that advantage can mean a huge difference that can end wars in days. Everything just moves so fast and effectively.
In asymmetrical warfare things are different. But I noticed Israel is getting better at killing off the heads of cells.
The "2 week" operation might be a compete lie by Israel
This might go on for years and Iran gets the hezbollah treatment where not a single military equipment is left and ends with the complete disarmament of Iran
Why has it taken Iran so long to respond? Does it just take that much time for them to prepare their attack? Or did Israel really do serious damage to their organizational structure with these strikes?
Iran can easily strike Israel with dirty bombs and cause radiation to all of Israel. Iran can supply such bombs to terrorists. They can use chemical weapons. There are plenty of ways to kill and destroy if you want to be brutal.
But that will guarantee that the entire world comes against them.
Iran accepted JCPOA not because of US sanctions but because even their friends Russia and China sanctioned them. They cannot survive without Russia and China's backing.
Their current strategy of nuclear threshold state is a viable path if they have the conventional ability to withstand or deter attacks. I think they still do if they can show even this level of strike is not enough to prevent them from raising hell on Israel and us forces in me.
The battle has just started, we will see if Iran can utilize its strategic depth.
Asymmetric strategy is still effective, even more so. US had complete dominance over houthi air space and still couldn't do anything to them. Hamas still stands, Hezbollah still stands. If you conceal your forces deep enough, air superiority is not enough to stop you.
Iran can produce enough missiles and drones in a concealed manner to wreck havoc on Israel for years. The question is that of will and morale.
More satellite images showing damages at Natanz nuclear facility.