2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

[Overbom]

Jesus Christ who else did they hit? Was Khomeini in there, too? What the hell is with Iran keeping all their officials in one place.

You heard it here first, he is the real Israeli asset

Doesn't it look strange that Presidents change, civilian and military leaders get changed or assassinated for so many years, but there is only one constant that's remains. Him

He is still around and ofc Iran still goes the same botched way. That's enough evidence for me

 

[manqiangrexue]

I fear Israel may be attempting to destroy Iran's current ability to retaliate through damaging their military command structure.

That's obvious.

I see this as Israel's abilities being underestimated more than iran being overestimated

No, everything Israel did was a matter of common sense. Destroy military bases, nuclear enrichment facilities, kill top leaders. What did they do that is surprising? They didn't even try to surprise anyone; they announced their attack intent on fucking Twitter! It's Iran that is majorly retarded by having all its leaders and scientists waltzing around going home and coming to work on schedule despite very public warnings that Israel will strike.

Is this all Israel's got? This attack didn't destroy Iranian chain of command, their decapitation strike failed. The US didn't even back them up this time so it's also politically a loss for Israel. All they achieved is a few notable kills and damaged civilian infrastructure. If Iran targets Israel factories, oil storage and power facilities Israeli economy will collapse.

Dude, STFU. You're being stupid. Iran is being totally f'ed up the ass and no one in the West will do anything other than tell Israel that that was a naughty thing to do. Iran can't do anything because of how rotten they are inside.

They will have to survive this with their tails tucked between their legs, create a new government that is passionate about Iran's future, protect themselves from Israeli/Western penetration, and slowly build back up. When they have the tech and economy again, reattempt at full effort, the creation of nuclear weapons. It's a very tough road and I doubt they have it in them.

Why do some of you guys suddenly turn super Anti-Iran when Iran gets attacked by Israel?

We are not anti-Iranian; we all want to see Iran flatten Israel. But we are realistic. In Chinese, we say this is a feeling of "hating iron for not becoming steel." Criticizing Iran is not being anti-Iran.

They are literally the victims of Israeli aggression.

That means nothing on the global stage. History is written by the winners.

Do you guys have no honor at all?

Do you have no sense of reality at all? It's dishonorable to point out how an ally fumbled the game and how an enemy has done well? You prefer delusion.

What do u guys expected Iran to do? Singlehandedly fight all the Major non-NATO allies in the area to get to Israel?
Building a nuke literally gives US reason to attack. Iran was weaker before; they wouldn't had stood a chance.

Do what North Korea did. Ironically, the more you weaken yourself due to fears that they will attack you for your strength, the more likely it is to be attacked in weakness. Strengthen yourself no matter what. If you get past the hump, you are an untouchable nuclear power. If you fail, you die fighting and with dignity. Iranian incompetence delayed the most critically needed aspect of its defense: nuclear weapons. So now its cities, people, scientists, generals are being killed with like fish in a barrel being speared from above.

 

[texx1]

This suggests the US didn't see it coming. Otherwise they would've pre-moved them. Look at the flight radar in mid February 2022 - Ukrainian skies were cleared of passenger planes.

It makes sense that Israel jumped gun on Trump. Trump didn't want Israel to blow up his negotiation with Iran. He would have liked Netanyahu to strike after Iran rejected his nuclear deal. Also many in Trump's administration are skeptical of US military involvement overseas. They won't be happy that Israel is forcing American hand.

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Trump didn’t want Israel to strike. They did it anyway.

In the hours before Israeli warplanes carried out an attack on Iran early Friday, raising fresh fears of all-out war in the region, President Donald Trump made clear it was an outcome he hoped to avoid.

“I don’t want them going in because, I mean, that would blow it,” he said referring to his diplomatic efforts to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

The fact Israel went in anyway – without any US involvement, and against the president’s publicly stated wishes – now thrusts Trump into one of the biggest tests of his young presidency.

 

[Mmmeeeto]

At this point they have nothing to lose, go all out. If you're gonna die at least die with dignity

Isn't the first time Iran has been humiliated. Qasem soleimani, Mohammed Reza zahed and many others.

 

[Observer1]

I agree with you Iran has strategic depth. They have the huge population. Western sanctions have made them hardened and insulated from western economic hits. They also have their own industry. So, overall they have everything to launch a full scale war against Israel. The only thing that is in doubt is the morale of the populaton and morale of the leadership. If they chicken out, if they get afraid then that is the end of it.

If they have the grit and the morale then Iran should not go for a single strike or two. They should go for a war of Attrition. We should look at Russia Ukraine war for this. Russia was also heavily penetrated by western intelligence and there have been many embarassing hits against Russia that surprised us many times. But look what Russia has done, they have understood their weaknesses and strengths and focused on what they can do best, which is to use their strategic depth and go on a war of attrition against Ukraine.

War of Attrition is the only kind of war where the west is guaranteed to lose. They have lost in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and recently against the Houthis. That is key to defeating the west and Israel. Grind them out.

Iran should focus on a slow and steady grinding war of Attrition with missiles and drones. Send missiles and drones for the next several years. Make life a living hell in Israel. Ofcourse Israel will hit back, there will be huge losses for Iran as well. But they have the depth to withstand it if their morale is strong.

Lets see how they go.

You are comparing insurgencies fought on the ground vs a formal conventional war utilising primarily missile stockpiles? Sorry but this seems like absolutely poor logic.

The Afghans, Vietnamese, Iraqis were successful because they had more than enough men willing to sacrifice their lives to drain the energy out of occupying western armies, however this dynamic does not apply to a war of attrition based on missile exchanges, the west can outproduce them, and outgun them. It will not be an insurgency reliant on men willing to die.

The Iranians have a roughly ~2000 missile stockpile, with capacity to produce ~50 a month. This won't last. And they're already being rendered useless by constant bombardment at the storage sites.

 

[gelgoog]

@texx1
And you believe the US government? Who gave Israel a free pass over Iraqi airspace? Who do you think is doing aerial refueling of Israeli airplanes and feeding them with Intel?

 

[TPenglake]

Isn't the first time Iran has been humiliated. Qasem soleimani, Mohammed Reza zahed and many others.

All those men were killed in foreign theaters of operation and past assassinated Iranian nuclear scientists were done so through covert means with plausible deniability. This was a straight up attack on Iranian soil involving numerous Israeli jets and missiles, telegraphed for the world to see, it might as well be the nation's Pearl Harbor.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

You are comparing insurgencies fought on the ground vs a formal conventional war utilising primarily missile stockpiles? Sorry but this seems like absolutely poor logic.

The Afghans, Vietnamese, Iraqis were successful because they had more than enough men willing to sacrifice their lives to drain the energy out of occupying western armies, however this dynamic does not apply to a war of attrition based on missile exchanges, the west can outproduce them, and outgun them. It will not be an insurgency reliant on men willing to die.

The Iranians have a roughly ~2000 missile stockpile, with capacity to produce ~50 a month. This won't last. And they're already being rendered useless by constant bombardment at the storage sites.

The west most certainly cannot outproduce in the current era. They can't fight both Ukraine and Israeli war of attrition and still hope to fight China in any meaningful capacity. Which means the amount of munitions Israel can have when it comes to missiles is limited.

Or if the west does go all out to supply Israel, then thats good for Russia and China. The key here is all three are fighting 3 seperate battles and that should be enough to overextend the west.

 

[Mmmeeeto]

No, everything Israel did was a matter of common sense. Destroy military bases, nuclear enrichment facilities, kill top leaders. What did they do that is surprising? They didn't even try to surprise anyone; they announced their attack intent on fucking Twitter! It's Iran that is majorly retarded by having all its leaders and scientists waltzing around going home and coming to work on schedule despite very public warnings that Israel will strike.

Chill, we don't know the details of their assassination. Iranian scientists have been killed in many weird and unimaginable ways in the past.
But yes if it's just an airstrike assassination plain stupidity on their end

 

[Minm]

I agree with you Iran has strategic depth. They have the huge population. Western sanctions have made them hardened and insulated from western economic hits. They also have their own industry. So, overall they have everything to launch a full scale war against Israel. The only thing that is in doubt is the morale of the populaton and morale of the leadership. If they chicken out, if they get afraid then that is the end of it.

If they have the grit and the morale then Iran should not go for a single strike or two. They should go for a war of Attrition. We should look at Russia Ukraine war for this. Russia was also heavily penetrated by western intelligence and there have been many embarassing hits against Russia that surprised us many times. But look what Russia has done, they have understood their weaknesses and strengths and focused on what they can do best, which is to use their strategic depth and go on a war of attrition against Ukraine.

War of Attrition is the only kind of war where the west is guaranteed to lose. They have lost in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and recently against the Houthis. That is key to defeating the west and Israel. Grind them out.

Iran should focus on a slow and steady grinding war of Attrition with missiles and drones. Send missiles and drones for the next several years. Make life a living hell in Israel. Ofcourse Israel will hit back, there will be huge losses for Iran as well. But they have the depth to withstand it if their morale is strong.

Lets see how they go.

I agree that the one thing that would cause "regime change" is if the government fails to defend its people. So there'll be a response. But we have to be realistic. Iran has never been able to defeat Israel with US backing. It's all about survival in the face of a hostile superpower. That's why the previous measured responses were correct, because Iran can't win a war and has no interest in sacrificing itself just to attrite some western ammunition

The reality is also that Israel and Iran both have a limited stock of ballistic missiles that they will most likely expend in this conflict. But how do they continue from there? Iran can't touch Israel without long range missiles and Israeli ability to go deep into Iranian airspace will remain limited. They haven't entered Iranian airspace yet for a good reason. As long as there's no major us involvement, this will be very difficult to turn into a big war