Trump 2.0 official thread

[LawLeadsToPeace]

Thanks to a comment in a Twitter thread, I noticed that the highlighted text in the photo below:


Based on this statement, China is going to give up the rare earth metals export control measures toward the US. However, if I remember correctly, that control measure is a general national security mechanism that isn’t targeted towards the US. Does anybody familiar with China’s interest know of any news about this?

 

[Mt1701d]

Thanks to a comment in a Twitter thread, I noticed that the highlighted text in the photo below:

View attachment 152053
Based on this statement, China is going to give up the rare earth metals export control measures toward the US. However, if I remember correctly, that control measure is a general national security mechanism that isn’t targeted towards the US. Does anybody familiar with China’s interest know of any news about this?

In that case, I guess it would be something like the agricultural stuff, the Boeing situation, LNG, light crude and I don’t remember any others.

But since new contracts have been negotiated and signed I am not sure how suspending these counter measures now will ultimately affect the whole situation.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

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In other words, Ron Vara has been thrown into a road side ditch. From “bringing back manufacturing” to strategic industries only.

In all honesty all these talk of decoupling and the so-called "STRATEGIC DECOUPLING" are primary about WAR and the clear deficiency that the entire western world are at its greatest disadvantage.

If China was just making trinkets and low value crap then all these haranguing about deficit and other information noise would be mooted.

I am of the opinion that war will take place whether one likes it or not because the system upon which the entirety of western supremacy in all spheres rest. And China is that sole country whose very existence threatens to upend and eventually may choose to overturn for its own strategic necessity.

WWII was won due to the industrial might and strength of the U.S. if we look and examine their construction prowess and ability to finish their monuments of old they were finished on time and largely within budget. A feat that can't be duplicated by the current crop of American industrial capacity, know-how, workers ethics, and unity of purpose.

 

[Mt1701d]

Many Chinese factories have not shut down.

They are on hold, waiting for a reduction in tariffs like the one announced today. Smart businesses will find efficiencies, eat some of the tariffs and continue.

China exported $450 billion to U.S. market by December 2024. So clearly a lot of biz still comes from the U.S. Less reliance compared to before, but still substantial.

You need to re-read what I wrote, I didn’t say many, I said the ones specifically catering to the US market alone.

Smart businesses would have diversified following Trump 1.0, and many had, that’s why manufacturing as a whole wasn’t as affected as it would have been.

Also if I remember correctly, and I am unsure how legit it is, there were talks about major retailers like Walmart calling for goods to be shipped regardless of 145% tariff and they will eat the tariffs. So if that was the case, 30%, the retailers will simply eat it ensure supply.

There are also many factories that are basically owned by US businesses to begin with, one example was toy factories I forget the name of the company, in these cases it wouldn’t really matter as they would be eating the tariffs either way.

 

[FriedButter]

Based on this statement, China is going to give up the rare earth metals export control measures toward the US. However, if I remember correctly, that control measure is a general national security mechanism that isn’t targeted towards the US. Does anybody familiar with China’s interest know of any news about this?

Reuters posted this 2 hours ago. It sounds like China is going to approve more licenses for export but maintain the export control list, which I suppose in a sense is “suspending” the non-tariff measure against the United States. Since the control list applies to all countries.

US customers should get Chinese rare earth permits more easily after trade truce, say sources​

BEIJING, May 12 (Reuters) - Rare earth export permits for U.S. customers are likely to have an easier time getting approval from Beijing after Monday's trade war truce, however a complete removal of the restrictions is unlikely, according to two sources in the industry in China.

China added seven rare earths and related items to a control list in April as part of its retaliation against U.S. tariffs. The decision means exporters need to apply for licenses before selling outside China.

While the decision applied to all countries, the likelihood of U.S. customers receiving export licenses during the trade war looked unlikely. Elon Musk said last month Tesla was in talks with Beijing over licenses for its Optimus robots.

The truce announced on Monday could see the Ministry of Commerce expedite approvals, which in theory take 45 days, and even grant licenses for U.S. customers soon, according to two sources in the industry who were granted anonymity given the sensitivity of rare earths in China.

"We are expecting to see an acceleration in the issuance of the required export license and exporters with clients in the U.S. might get a license soon," said one of the sources.

However, China is unlikely to remove the export controls because they form part of a broader package of measures designed to give Beijing greater control over various critical minerals where it dominates the mining or processing, they added.

China, the world's largest supplier of dozens of strategic minerals, began imposing restrictions in 2023 on exports of several minerals vital to sectors ranging from chipmaking and energy transition to defence.

The United States, which imports most of its rare earths from China, faces the threat of being cut off the critical minerals vital to defence and other high-tech sectors.

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[Captainquirk]

You need to re-read what I wrote, I didn’t say many, I said the ones specifically catering to the US market alone.

Smart businesses would have diversified following Trump 1.0, and many had, that’s why manufacturing as a whole wasn’t as affected as it would have been.

Also if I remember correctly, and I am unsure how legit it is, there were talks about major retailers like Walmart calling for goods to be shipped regardless of 145% tariff and they will eat the tariffs. So if that was the case, 30%, the retailers will simply eat it ensure supply.

There are also many factories that are basically owned by US businesses to begin with, one example was toy factories I forget the name of the company, in these cases it wouldn’t really matter as they would be eating the tariffs either way.

Are there any biz in China that caters only to the US market?

Most manufactures have already diversified, and caters to US, ASEAN, EU and many other markets, with the US being a significant portion (collectively $450 billion).

30% is workable.

 

[supersnoop]

Only Trump can basically smash everything, then put it back together the same way it was before, then call it a "deal"

 

[FriedButter]

In all honesty all these talk of decoupling and the so-called "STRATEGIC DECOUPLING" are primary about WAR and the clear deficiency that the entire western world are at its greatest disadvantage.

The “strategic decoupling” is probably going to slam US vassals harder than China. The US can’t replace China rare earth metal in any reasonable time frame. US Pharmaceuticals got hit with an executive order to massively reduce prices thus making it pointless to move their supply chains to the US due to costs. The big ones are semiconductors and steel. Neither of which China has an US market share due to their Anti-Chinese paranoia from the mid 2010s but the US vassals export huge amounts.

 

[iewgnem]

Reuters posted this 2 hours ago. It sounds like China is going to approve more licenses for export but maintain the export control list, which I suppose in a sense is “suspending” the non-tariff measure against the United States. Since the control list applies to all countries.

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That's just Reuter's speculation, China's rare earth restrictions are global for a reason.

 

[FriedButter]

That's just Reuter's speculation, China's rare earth restrictions are global for a reason.

I mean they did talk about it but it isn’t in China interests to maintain the rare earth ban permanently. Since this is a truce, by approving rare earth licenses then in a sense that does suspend non-tariff measures. The US gets their rare earth metals and China gets a new tool for selective targeting firms such as the US MIC to raise costs.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday that delegations from the United States and China discussed the export of rare earths at their trade negotiation earlier today. China halted the sale of rare earths to the US in retaliation for Washington imposing tariffs in April.

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