The Kashmir conflict 2025.

[Sinnavuuty]

The use of camouflage on the runways and hangars is interesting. An important airbase is located at Jalandhar, where the IAF's 47th and 223rd squadrons are based, both operating MiG-29s.
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Since most of the strikes between India and Pakistan are focused on adversary military infrastructure and given the critical role of aviation in both defensive and offensive operations, here is another airport.

The Srinagar International Airport is in Indian Kashmir and is also a dual use airport, but we are most interested in the military aspect of the airport here. The strategic location of the airfield makes it a critical Indian stronghold to deter both China and Pakistan.

This is a large airfield. It has around 20 reinforced concrete shelters to protect aircrafts from enemy strikes. The shelters are spread across the airfield in 3 separate sections.

The airbase also has several hangars capable to host cargo planes like the C-17.

North-west of the airfield around a dozen shelters for ammunition are spread apart but do not seem buried.

The airfield is quite large and has space to host many aircrafts but his limited by its single runway.

Finally the airfield is protected by what is likely a S-400 installation.

33°59'23"N 74°46'14"E

@wfwitness

 

[Gloire_bb]

This is the most accurate thread I've seen with evidence included.

That they're picturing as MKI is not MKI.
Far too small(like, one flanker tail level small) and very wrong shape(flanker tails have straight unbroken edges). Not everything with two big vertical tails is sukhoi, and those aren't tails in the first place.

K-36DM is a very certain evidence of aircraft down, but without type.

 

[00CuriousObserver]

I guess it's here
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Looked around a decent bit, found this analysis about that "unexploded PL-15":

The fragmentation ring and concentric ring belt diffuse; the explosive would cause the front and rear to separate. I believe this is a reasonable explanation. Whether it's a hit, near miss, or complete miss followed by self-detonation, this kind of debris is all possible. Saying it's unexploded doesn't seem quite right to me.

Guidance head – computer electronics compartment – warhead – engine tail section: it's possible for the warhead to explode and the front and rear to separate and fall. I've done translations for defense exhibitions. I haven't handled the PL-15, but I have worked directly with and translated for the AG300 and FT-7.

Burn marks might be on the bulkhead of the compartment that flew off. What we’re seeing might be the result of an explosion where the part with burn marks separated.

Also, the guidance head image you provided above shows what looks like burn marks.

I still believe that if it was unexploded, there would at least be some fragments or remnants of the warhead preserved. Otherwise, how can the front and rear of the warhead be there but the warhead itself be missing?

I still believe that a hit, miss, or near miss are all possible scenarios.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

That they're picturing as MKI is not MKI.
Far too small(like, one flanker tail level small) and very wrong shape(flanker tails have straight unbroken edges). Not everything with two big vertical tails is sukhoi, and those aren't tails in the first place.

K-36DM is a very certain evidence of aircraft down, but without type.

I will be taking a critical look at the seat issue. How can we be sure that the registered ejection seat is recent? India shoots down its aircraft frequently, so the chances of the seat being from a previous incident are quite possible.

 

[Black Wolf]

It’s not over yet. Despite the Pakistanis Civilian government jumping up and down the Air Force is surprisingly silent compared with 2019. Something is brewing, and I believe it will be something big.

My gut feeling is the same — we should keep a close watch on the Kashmir region. Yesterday, they nearly dismantled the Jammu Air Base, which suggests that something significant might be unfolding.

Given that over 700,000 Indian Army personnel are stationed in the area, the situation warrants serious attention.


Fingers crossed.

 

[bsdnf]

Pakistani soldier placed the LY-80 booster and Harpo wreckage together. Both had been photographed at the scene before.

It is not clear whether the two incidents are related, but they obviously wanted to show that LY-80 intercepted the Harpo.

 

[GiantPanda]

This is the most accurate thread I've seen with evidence included.

Probable kills are:

- 1x Rafale
- 1x Mirage-2000 (potentially misidentified as a Rafale too)
- 1x Su-30MKI
- 1x MiG-29UPG

I think the 5th kill wasn't successful, but BVR missiles were confirmed fired, this may be the 5th total kill they are claiming. (Likely what they believe is a Rafale)

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Claims are up to 7 from what I read. This is pretty modest when we hear about the numbers of fighters involved -- CNN reported up to 125 from both sides being in the air.

Seems to me that Pakistan is claiming what it reasonably thinks are possible hits. Considering that all hits would have been on the Indian side of the border and we've seen evidence of at four crashes then I have pretty high confidence in the PAF claims.

What is surprising from the Indian side is the complete irrelevance of the Su-30MKI. Again.

Like in the 2019, the only news of the MKI (besides being a victim) is of it "dodging" AAMs. This is a heavy-weight platform that is supposed to be the backbone of the IAF. It is literally the majority of its modern fighters.

Having Rafales and a MiG-21 being involved in the mix and getting shot down while your heavyweight fighter is doing nothing but dodging is hilariously sad.

Can you imagine the J-16 letting J-10s and J-7s take point in any conflict?

 

[siegecrossbow]

Traffic accident… yeah I’m not buying that.

 

[Black Wolf]

I'm not entirely convinced of its authenticity.

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[Temstar]

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Traffic accident… yeah I’m not buying that.

That's super disrespectful if he did die in battle.