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That's definitely M88. It would be interesting to know how Rafale was brought down. Was it PL-15? or was it HQ9?
Jai Hinds: It took the combined firepower of PL15, HQ9 and Indian SAM to down the Rafale! If even one of the attacks didn’t happen Rafale would have survived!
Jokes aside, if the crash sites are indeed as reported, being deep in Indian controlled territory, then it would make the PL15 the most likely candidate, as HQ9 is unlikely to have the range to engage IAF fighters so deep within Indian airspace.
If we assume for the minute that it was the PL15, then that still presents a lot of interesting scenarios for how the kill was achieved so far within Indian airspace.
I think the most likely scenarios are as follows;
S1: PAF long range sensors picked up the IAF strike waves almost as soon as they took off and PAF scrambled CAP way faster than IAF thought possible. Those CAP fighters then engaged the IAF strike packages as soon as weapons employment by the Indians was confirmed. Depending on too many factors to list, this could have been either soon after IAF weapons release, or as late as after the first detonations on the ground. But more likely somewhere in between, and closer to the former than the later for the launch aircraft to have been shot down.
S2: It could be that IAF messed up its timing, so instead of a simultaneous attack, targets were struck piecemeal, so PAF had time to vector in CAP after the first targets were hit to intercept IAF waves still coming in to attack their targets.
S3: IAF Rafales were meant to be the door kickers, supposed to engage and destroy PAF CAP to clear the way for subsequent strike packages, but managed to get spanked instead and PAF CAP also took out some following IAF strikers.
Or it could be a combination of some or all of them.
But no matter how it went down, the extent of PAF’s situational awareness is impressive that it has managed to take down IAF jets so far within Indian territory for no loss.
The PL15 will get a massive amount of credit, but I think it’s the PAF’s investment in AWACS that made all those long range kills possible, as no fighter aircraft could hope to achieve such a comprehensive view so deep into enemy airspace by itself. Well, no current gen fighter in any case.