Lethe
Captain
Maybe because, until recently, it wasn't a very desirable aircraft in terms of overall capabilities relative to the high cost it entails? Its engines are somewhat underpowered, and they could've done a better job with the radome size. However, it can haul outsized payloads, including a wider selection of them, which is admittedly a decent advantage compared to the Typhoon.
I think the F3 standard which entered service in 2009 was the point at which Rafale became a compelling export prospect, further underlined by induction of RBE2 AESA radar (first for European aircraft) on production aircraft from 2013. Nobody should expect export customers to sign up for either developmental aircraft (i.e. Rafale in the 1990s) or those with limited multirole capabilities and still experiencing teething pains (Rafale in 00s). Yet I think those "confidence" factors should've dissipated by the late 00s at the latest, with the clear roadmap to F3 and beyond. The campaign in Libya undoubtedly underlined the capabilities of the aircraft, but Rafale F2s operated earlier in Afghanistan so it should not have been a clear step-change moment.
While the IN may be pressed for time, it may also be beneficial to use a more-available interim in the meantime (MiG-29Ks) and divert much of the funding to the TEDBF program instead. The TEDBF program, if successful, would not only provide the IN/IAF with a Rafale-class fighter but also significantly leapfrog India's defense aviation industry in terms of technology and self-sufficiency.
The IAF/IN seems to have a problem with satisfying requirements with off-the-shelf solutions at the expense of long-term development. This current cycle would have the IAF/IN continue purchasing near-term equipment that will lose their technological edge in the coming years while their indigenous programs (AMCA/TEDBD/ORCA) continue to be placed on the backburner.
I think that TEDBF is precisely why the Indian Navy requirement was cut in half from the 57 aircraft originally contemplated under the 2017 MRCBF RFI. At that point, the intent was evidently to replace existing MiG-29Ks with this new aircraft (Super Hornet or Rafale). The modified plan involves retaining MiG-29K in service alongside fewer Rafales while TEDBF gestates to replace the former. The unspoken annex to this plan is that if TEDBF fails to deliver, Dassault will be more than happy to step in with a second batch of Rafales for IN.
There is clearly tension between IAF/IN inventory objectives and broader GoI objectives re: budgets, strategic autonomy, domestic industrial development. Neither can be entirely absolved from their role in the general morass that is the Indian defence-industrial sector. Yet can you blame IN for not wanting to put all their eggs in the TEDBF basket?
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