Trump 2.0 official thread

Surpluswarrior

Junior Member
VIP Professional

Nvidia: US basically handed the Chinese AI market to Huawei, analyst says​



This analyst clues in to what has been clear since about 2018 or so: the combined Biden-Trump policy of restricting chips and semiconductors to China "forces" China to innovate in directions it may not have considered.

Consequently, China will continue to develop its own competitive AI chips and semiconductors. The analyst realizes that in '5-10 years' China will be even more competitive in AI chips and the like, although possibly this process will occur even more quickly. Maybe he knows that China is already doing this, but has to sugarcoat it for the audience.

 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Regarding the United States' policy on China's shipping industry's industry, the latest news has nearly made Chinese people die of laughter.
The video above is domestic commentary from someone following this matter.
Doesn't negate my point on the true purpose of the policy, which is to force orders from Chinese yards to Japs and Korean yards.
 
Last edited:

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think by now, even Trump realizes there's no ultimatum that would bend China. He and his team are thinking about how to get China to accept his surrender while looking just tough enough to not get lynched by angry redneck mob in DC part 2.

Unilaterally dropping tariffs to 50-65% is Mr. Noodle Knees' olive branch.
I find it interesting even Americans who oppose Trump and tariffs still believe China want to trade and will give Trump a false victory ladder to climb down. Meanwhile everything Beijing has done so far says the opposite.

Americans are so used to being on the attack and worse case scenario is going home if their attack fails, they're mentally and physically unprepared for the current reality where China is on the offence, that China is the one who want to decouple, China is the one who want to de-dollarize, China is the one who wants to cut trade, and the only way out is their explicit and irreversible geopolitical defeat
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
These people are annoying. They wanted decoupling, China is helping them with that. That's not enough, they want to start dictating to China how to restructure their economy and for China to surrender manufacturing to them while China remains a giant market for their goods. The worst kind of insult is when someone tries to insult your intelligence. Here's an idea Mr. Bessent, if you want to industrialize, good luck with that but do it on your own.
White SUPREMACIST can't stop being White Supremacist ya know.
 

dingyibvs

Senior Member
They basically want China to ship their industries to the US and for China shrink their manufacturing capacity. At the end of the day, the anti-china hawks are more or less demanding that China be reliant on US goods so they can use it as coercion.

They do want the former, but rebalancing could just mean increasing consumption in China rather than China shrinking industries. IMO that's something China could very well consider, provided something great in return is given.

For example, China could offer to build EVs and batteries in exchange for American withdrawal from East Asia or at least Japan a and the Philippines. Forget about verbal/legal guarantees, any action needs to be tangible. No American forces in the vicinity of Taiwan is a tangible guarantee of no American interference in AR. Chinese production lines in the US is a tabgible guarantee of manufacturing in the US. This is, at least on paper, a win-win arrangement, as China wants greater leverage over Taiwan and access to the American market, while America also wants more manufacturing at home and retrench its global presence.

In the long run, as I stated before, America's problem is structural. It's not like GM doesn't have access to the tools, facilities, money, or minerals BYD does. What it doesn't have is consistent policy support down to the nurturing of engineering and technical talent. Moving factories to the US won't make America an industrial powerhouse for the same reason all the years the Japanese moved manufacturing to Thailand did not make it an industrial powerhouse.

It's like back in the days when a Russian scientist was asked about concerns re: China stealing Russian technology, I think about the Su-27, and he responded "What's technology? I'm technology". America's structure currently does not allow sufficient investment in its people, so until that changes no realistic amount of manufacturing relocation will help it re-industrialized. As such, a deal such as this would only result in long lasting benefit for China, and is thus a deal worth pursuing.
 

GZDRefugee

Junior Member
Registered Member

FriedButter

Brigadier
Registered Member
They do want the former, but rebalancing could just mean increasing consumption in China rather than China shrinking industries. IMO that's something China could very well consider, provided something great in return is given.

China increasing consumption will simply mean domestic industries will provide the refined goods. That isn’t what the Americans want. The only way US goods will ever become financially viable for mass Chinese consumption is if China dismantles their own logistical supply chain and manufacturing capabilities. US goods are not competitive.

This is, at least on paper, a win-win arrangement,

The China hawks are not interested in a win-win situation. They see it as a zero sum game. It is all or nothing. Their failed Kellogg plan that Zelensky blew up before Trump could tout it to Russia involved mass deployment of NATO troops. If they are unable to offer the Russians the bare minimum of concessions for a freeze. Why would they be interested in an win-win scearino
 
Top