Miscellaneous News

[chgough34]

All of these bills are basically the last cries of a dying empire desperately trying to implement protectionism

It's honestly pathetic to watch lol

“Last cries of a dying empire”: so when should we expect said “empire” to end?

The trade war has started since 2018 and the U.S. economy has grown substantially since then, the tensions in the U.S.-China relationship have had negligible impact on macroeconomic statistics, and are clearly US-China tensions still top of mind for Chinese corporates and policymakers with the U.S. entirely steering this ship.

Even if you assume the U.S. economy grows at 1.5% and China grows at 5% into perpetuity, there are 2-3 decades where the U.S. economy is at least 70% of China’s size. If this “dying” involves in the best Chinese case, waiting an entire working career for maybe, one day, seeing the relative U.S. power position ambiguously drop, that’s gotta be worth something, I guess (?)

 

[RedBaron]

Getting China to sanction Vietnam is good for the United States since it harms China’s economy with no cost to the U.S., it irreparably harms a bilateral relationship China holds that it built up with substantial effort, and it makes for all asean states to look to the U.S. to play daddy moral hazard/external balancer. Since there’s nothing China can do to substantively harm the U.S., it just harms US “puppets” but in doing so, it makes it much easier for the U.S. to improve relations with said “puppets” and it harms China’s economy

Utterly deluded claim.

 

[sndef888]

“Last cries of a dying empire”: so when should we expect said “empire” to end?

The trade war has started since 2018 and the U.S. economy has grown substantially since then, the tensions in the U.S.-China relationship have had negligible impact on macroeconomic statistics, and are clearly US-China tensions still top of mind for Chinese corporates and policymakers with the U.S. entirely steering this ship.

Even if you assume the U.S. economy grows at 1.5% and China grows at 5% into perpetuity, there are 2-3 decades where the U.S. economy is at least 70% of China’s size. If this “dying” involves in the best Chinese case, waiting an entire working career for maybe, one day, seeing the relative U.S. power position ambiguously drop, that’s gotta be worth something, I guess (?)

Lol, the "growth" of the US economy is entirely a mirage funded by its USD hegemony. There is no way in practical terms that a US citizen is more productive than 5 Chinese citizens.

You're assuming that the USD will remain strong forever and the US will only gradually decline in relative terms

When in reality there's a pretty decent chance of it meeting an unceremonious ending that results in it fragmenting into multiple pieces, or at the very least a collapse in the value of the USD reflecting its true value.

China is just waiting because it doesn't want the US to get desperate enough to take military action today, which, even if they can't win will still severely damage China's development.

 

[chgough34]

Lol, the "growth" of the US economy is entirely a mirage funded by its USD hegemony. There is no way in practical terms that a US citizen is more productive than 5 Chinese citizens.

This is simple. 20%-ish of Chinese workers are subsidence farmers as opposed to ~0% of the U.S. population: then if you look at US firms - there simply are no Chinese equivalents of the size and scope of U.S. firms like Microsoft, Oracle, Linde, Air Products and Chemicals, ThermoFisher Intel, Pfizer, Nvidia, AMD, Boeing, etc and countless other innovative manufacturers and service firms. China simply lacks the multiplicity of large technologically complex firms that the U.S. contains in droves - that drives the technological frontier more than anything else and can easily explain the productivity differential.

Even with the recent Boeing and Intel news - they clear far more in revenue and volume in a quarter than COMAC and a random set of Chinese logic IC manufacturers have cleared in the past decade combined

You're assuming that the USD will remain strong forever and the US will only gradually decline in relative terms

Indeed. US power is based off of accumulated U.S. advantages in physical capital, human capital, technological development, network effects, etc. unless China somehow manages to vaporize every facility and company document, those advantages will be enduring

When in reality there's a pretty decent chance of it meeting an unceremonious ending that results in it fragmenting into multiple pieces, or at the very least a collapse in the value of the USD reflecting its true value.

Hmm…sure. What date should we expect this by?

 

[chgough34]

Utterly deluded claim.

If there was, we would’ve seen it by now since with the 301 tariffs, the Huawei export ban, the October 7 export ban, the Pelosi trip to Taiwan, the CFIUS rollout, the TikTok ban, the CCP travel/visa restrictions, the South China Sea/Philippines stuff, the journalist kicking out, the Taiwan Travel Act, US army members in Taiwan, etc

among others were all the 246,495th time the US apparently crossed China’s red line only for China to do…nothing.

 

[sndef888]

This is simple. 20%-ish of Chinese workers are subsidence farmers and then if you look at US firms - there simply are no Chinese equivalents of the size and scope of U.S. firms like Microsoft, Oracle, Linde, Air Products and Chemicals, ThermoFisher Intel, Pfizer, Nvidia, AMD, Boeing, etc and countless other innovative manufacturers and service firms. China simply lacks the multiplicity of large technologically complex firms that the U.S. contains in droves - that drives the technological frontier more than anything else.

Even with the recent Boeing and Intel news - they clear far more in revenue and volume in a quarter than COMAC and a random set of Chinese logic IC manufacturers have cleared in the past decade combined

Indeed. US power is based off of accumulated U.S. advantages in physical capital, human capital, technological development, network effects, etc. unless China somehow manages to vaporize every facility and company document, those advantages will be enduring

Hmm…sure. What date should we expect this by?

You're basically repeating the sort of nonsense that neoliberal thinktanks spread word for word.

"China simply lacks the multiplicity of large technologically complex firms that the U.S. contains in droves - that drives the technological frontier more than anything else"

LMFAO. As I said, no, there's nothing particularly competitive about US firms except in a few tech sectors that definitely do not justify the majority of the supposed 30 trillion economy. It is all down to USD hegemony, which is a privilege that will not last forever. Feel free to bet the other way. We're discussing a speculative here, why are you trying to ask for a date? I'm not Gordon Chang. I just know that empires typically last 200-300 years, and the US is reaching 250 years old in 2026. Wink wink.

 

[ansy1968]

If there was, we would’ve seen it by now since with the 301 tariffs, the Huawei export ban, the October 7 export ban, the Pelosi trip to Taiwan, the CFIUS rollout, the TikTok ban, the CCP travel/visa restrictions, the South China Sea/Philippines stuff, the journalist kicking out, the Taiwan Travel Act, US army members in Taiwan, etc

among others were all the 246,495th time the US apparently crossed China’s red line only for China to do…nothing.

And yet the US still adhere to the One China Policy, that's the Chinese redline not your illusionary version.

 

[Index]

Yeah, China is the substantially weaker party in U.S.-China relations. The U.S. gets to set terms

It's the complete opposite. US doesnt even have any credible road map to catch up to China economically, and economics is what determine national power.

US is unable to get even any high-level dialogue in at this point of time, while China is directly hitting US and EU economies into recession, livelihoods remain unaffected in China by US attempts at retaliations. Why do you think US is the one trying to initiate negotiation and hotlines all the time?

Because US doesn't have the power to affect China's home economy, it doesn't cost the CPC anything to not negotiate with America. The sense of urgency is not there.

 

[Index]

If there was, we would’ve seen it by now since with the 301 tariffs, the Huawei export ban, the October 7 export ban, the Pelosi trip to Taiwan,

0 impact on Chinese economy, which is what CPC is gonna look at.

the CFIUS rollout, the TikTok ban,

Which Biden doesn't have the balls to finish, despite China not even warning them.

the CCP travel/visa restrictions,

He banned some persons who will never vacation in US from vacationing in US. Kekw.

the South China Sea/Philippines stuff, the journalist kicking out, the Taiwan Travel Act, US army members in Taiwan, etc

among others were all the 246,495th time the US apparently crossed China’s red line only for China to do…nothing.

And China retaliate by aggroing Russia against the EU, resulting in the collapse of EU industry sector, deep recession in European NATO and stagflation in the US, alongside a war that has erased 100 000s of western ideology motivated and god knows how much stockpiles for the US. Btw according to your standard of considering US army in Taiwan, PLA is in Donbass.

Now, also Israel is under threat. The last US colony in Middle East, after China broke the Saudi petrodollar agreement.

Where are America's red lines?

America is slapping China on the chest, having no visible impact on Chinese livelihoods, while every return blow China throws are punches that put economies into recession, kill thousands in proxy wars/attacks and degrades US military capabilities.

When was the last time an US led attack managed to disrupt thousands of lives in China?

Under such a status quo, why would China negotiate with US?

 

[Randomuser]

How many things have the west done that actually aged well in the long run? Seems everything they do only looks good on newspapers for a week at most and then after that people forget about it. The you revisit it a few months later and realized it flopped but by then no one cares.